THE GOLDEN EVOLUTION: Why is Evolution So Controversial?

Day 116  of the Lower Puna Eruption, and I can't find anything new.  Hurricane Lane is now a tropical depression, and way to the right of now sunny Honolulu this Sunday morning:

But Tropical Storm Miriam has formed:

However, while she will attain Category 2 strength, the current projection is a turn north way before getting close to Hawaii.  Just east and south of Miriam is another potential major storm to be called Norman. 

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In this blog site, there are two kinds of evolution.  The Golden Evolution is my prognosis of how religion will evolve into the future.  Then, there is Darwinian evolution.

Gallup has tracked belief in Darwin's evolution since 1981:

There are trends in the USA:

• While in 1981 44% felt that God created humans in our present form, this percentage declined to 38 percent in 2017.
• The 38% figure for those believing that humans evolved with God guiding in 1971 remained unchanged in 2017.
• The 9% feeling that God had no part in the evolution of humans in 1981 has climbed to 19% in 2017.

In other words, more than 80% of Americans believe that humans evolved with God somehow involved.  A key point here is that there is a general sense that we evolved, and when you add the 38% to 9%, you get 47% believing in some sort of evolution.  This number will soon return.

Earlier this year Pew had a God belief poll:

There is good correlation between disbelief of Darwin's evolution and belief in God.

Here is a survey looking at the politics of evolution:

Of course, Republicans and Conservatives have more doubts about Darwinian evolution.

Pew poll on evolution and religion tradition:

In summary, belief in some form of evolution:

• Buddhist                     86%
• Jewish                        81%
• Hindu                         80%
• Catholic                      66%
• Muslim                       53%
• Mormon                     42%
• Jehovah's Witnesses 20%
• General population     62%

Remember the 47% above?  Thus, as high as those numbers seem to be, the actual percentage believing in a Darwinian evolution without the influence of a god could well be quite low, for this figure is ONLY 19% in the USA, even though we have those 47% and 48% ratings.

Here is another comparison that shows the USA has more doubts about Darwinian evolution than most of the world:

The 40-60% range for Americans pretty much reflects the 47% and 48% percentages from other polls.

From Pew, belief in evolution due to natural processes:

     Public         32%

     Scientists    87%

Again from Pew:

AAAS stands for the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and this is the organization that publishes the pre-eminent science magazine, SCIENCE.  98% of them believe in Darwin evolution.  I am not providing anything judgmental at this point, just the facts.

The current issue of Scientific American has a special report on education entitled Bringing Darwin Back.  60% of American teachers avoid or skimp on teaching evolution, mostly because of parental and community pressure.  

This attitude is prominent in the Red (Republican) states, and especially so in the South.  This conflict with religion is only one of a variety of issues to later be analyzed in this blog site. 

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LANE WEAKENS, HAWAII SURVIVES

Day 115 of the Lower Puna Eruption, all seems quiet.

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Lane is now a tropical storm, located beyond the horizon, a hundred miles south:

However, some rains are continuing, with Waikea Uka, a part of Hilo, where Pearl grew up, getting close to 46 inches.  A quick summary:

• No hurricane in recorded history has ever yet made landfall over the Big Island, Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Oahu.
• The composite average of all the computer projections proved to be incredibly accurate:

• Hurricane Lane (top right) was barreling in a westward direction, a bit south of the the path followed by Hurricane Hector (bottom right), which passed 200 miles south of the Big Island at 155 MPH on August 8.
• But some models began to show Lane, then at 150 MPH, actually making a right turn north.  Later, we learned that this occurred because the high pressure zone moved east.

• Then a complicated array of models crazily showed a slight turn a bit east of north when approaching Maui, then, a sudden 90 degree zag to the west.  I've never seen this kind of activity, and who could believe it?
• Most of these projections indicated a quick weakening, and we now are familiar with the term, wind shear, high winds which lopped off the hurricane top.  Lane was thus weakened, with normal trade winds indeed turning the storm left to the west.

So we are now safe and mostly well.  Maui had three brushfires, probably not caused by Lane, destroying 7 homes and burning up to 3000 acres.  No word on what caused those fires, but there were thunderstorms.

Yesterday, feeling I needed some exercise, almost went for a walk.  Stepped out to be met by hurricane force winds.  This was mostly because 15 Craigside features a well-designed wind tunnel.  However, there was a reported gust of 74 MPH on the slopes of Punchbowl, nearby where I live.  I cancelled my hike.

Today, watch Honolulu play Georgia again, for the South Williamsport Little League National Championship.  9:30AM Hawaii time.  The victor tomorrow plays the winner of the Japan-South Korea game on Sunday.

NCAA football begins this weekend and Hawaii plays at Colorado State.  CBS sports channel at 1:30 PM, HST.  In Hawaii, this will not be your regular CBS station, but 247 or 1247.  I believe you need to subscribe to the Spectrum sports package.  In three weeks I fly to New York for the Hawaii-Army game at West Point.

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HURRICANE LANE STILL HEADED STRAIGHT FOR ME

Day 114 of the Lower Puna Eruption, and the USGS merely mentions that activity has greatly diminished, not ended.

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Hurricane Lane is now a Category 2 at 105 MPH and still heading straight for me.

I live in Honolulu on Oahu at a decent elevation.  I am, though, in the cone of danger.  Waikiki is five miles closer at the coastline, and then there is the Ala Wai Canal, which has overflowed several times in recent history.  Waikiki could become the equivalent of Venice.

Sure, most computer models show Lane making a left turn to the west within 24 hours, but as the track has been a straight line towards my apartment for 48 hours now, I remain concerned, especially since:

• Brock Long, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) said:  I've watched a lot of forecasts in my life, and thing about it is, any time you see a 90-degree turn to the west over the next 48 to 72 hours, there's a lot of uncertainty.

• Richard Henning, research meteorologist with  NOAA who made three flights into Lane this week in a WP03D Orion "Hurricane Hunter" as the flight director:  It will be bad news for Oahu if the storm is stronger today than the Central Pacific Hurricane Center forecast, because that will make a turn to the left more unlikely before it gets to Oahu.  Everyone on Oahu should be prepared to take a direct hit.

Stores are out of water and many other hurricane stuff, while power is out all over the place, but the major problem thus far has been the rain, especially in the general Hilo area, with Hakalau getting around 30 inches.  To the left behind me is Rainbow Falls, which was the location Pearl's Ashes #1.  Here is a 2.5 minute clip of the water flow yesterday.  Frightening!

The good news is that, like the latest Puna eruption, there have been no deaths.  Of all the unexpected things, though, is that the only injury thus far has been from burns.  You'd think the rain would have dampened everything, but high winds have stirred up a serious brush fire on Maui.

Back to 15 Craigside, if Lane keeps heading straight for me, my building is exactly perpendicular to the path, so the wind direction should be, first to the Diamond Head side of the building, then, after the eye passes, to the Ewa side of the building.  We are adjacent to Nuuanu Stream (that green band), which could overflow, but I'm on the 10th floor.  

My bathtub is one of only three in this building, and I am ready.  Note the Toto Washlet I recently added.

So I await Hurricane Lane, which is now over the  horizon from where I am composing this posting.  I hope my blog tomorrow is disappointingly boring.  Better get this out before we lose electricity.

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MY EXPERIENCE WITH HURRICANES

Day 113, or the beginning of week 17, of the Lower Puna Eruption, and the USGS has not yet said that activity here has ceased.

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How many of you have been in a real hurricane/typhoon/cyclone?  Here is my experience:

• I was born and grew up in Hawaii.  Nothing in my youth.
• Went to Stanford and spent most of the next four years in California.  Nothing.
• Came back home to work in the sugar industry for six years.  Nothing.
• Went on to LSU in Baton Rouge for four years.  Nothing.
• Came back home for seven years.  Nothing.
• Went on to DC to work in the U.S. Senate for three years.  Nothing.

• Finally, in October of 1989 I took a memorable trip (indicating why I am now heading for 3 million miles on Star Alliance):
• I was chairman of the Energy Committee for the American Society of Civil Engineers, and participated in a national conference in New Orleans.  However, Hurricane Jerry began to approach Louisiana and Texas, so I left early and flew to Tokyo for another meeting.
• While in Tokyo my bed was jarred by an earthquake.

• My next event was to testify at a hearing in the U.S. Congress, so I flew from Tokyo to San Francisco, and spent a night at the AMFAC Hotel at the airport.  
• Left the next morning for Washington, D.C., where I sat next to my old physics professor at Stanford, Wolfgang Panofsky.  He told me what he could about what he was doing, which was negotiating with the Soviet Union on what to do with nuclear warheads when the Cold War ended.

• Arrived at my hotel in DC, turned on the TV set and the first scene was of the AMFAC Hotel, where the structure had caved in at the elevator.  My room was next to that elevator.  That hotel never opened again.  This was the Loma Prieta Earthquake which postponed the World Series being held in San Francisco.
• Thus, still, I had not personally experienced a hurricane, and I was then 49 years of age.

• My next encounter was around 1990 when, in Japan, I had to catch a train from Tokyo to Izu Peninsula.  A typhoon was coming, but the train left on schedule.  The eye went right over my train, and nothing bad happened. So that was my first hurricane.  A lot of anxiety, for nothing.

• In 1992 Pearl and I found our way to Eugene, Oregon, where we met up with my brother and his wife, who had driven from Las Vegas.  We won 24-21, and on the way to the next game against the Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs, we stopped for the night in Salt Lake City.  Turned on the TV and there was Hurricane Iniki heading what looked like straight to Honolulu.  Could not reach anyone on the phone.  Iniki devastated Kauai, but I missed it all.

• In August of 2009, to celebrate Pearl's life on the Big Island, after her ash scattering on the slopes of Mauna Kea, I was unsure about continuing on to the Mauna Kea Beach Hotel, Four Seasons Hualalai and Volcano House, to also lay her ashes, because Hurricane Felicia was bearing down on the island.  I thought it would be best to be at home if Felicia hit Oahu.  Turned out that she weakened, but the eye went right over my apartment in Honolulu.

So we come to Hurricane Lane, who I thought was a male, but TV newscasters a couple of times referred to the storm as she.  Anyway, note the current projected track.  How comfortable would you be if that arrow pointed straight at you, with a computer projection showing a left turn just before getting to you?  

That best guess is just the average of various computer models which considerably vary.  Hurricanes are supposed to move along a fairly straight path.  Here in Hawaii we have wind shear and high mountains that both protect us and make things complicated.  Here are the factors affecting the path of Lane:

• Tradewinds and other weather patterns push hurricanes in the Pacific mostly west.
• However, high level winds, this shear, come from the southwest.
• This is good because the hurricane is sheared and weakened.  As expected, Lane has dropped from Category 5 to now 4 status with a 3 rating soon expected, I hope.
• However, the counter-clockwise twist, when faced with this shear, means that the storm begins to shift north.  Yet, if the storm is really strong, as is Lane, this northern direction continues to prevail.  THE KEY QUESTION IS:  WILL THIS SHEAR, SAID TO BE AT 50 MPH, DOMINATE OVER THE HURRICANE, WITH WINDS OF 130 MPH???

My Manoa Campus office at the University of Hawaii is in the adjacent building to the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration office of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.  All the information you see on TV comes from here. If not in Hawaii, watch the Weather Channel, which has been around since 1982.  Just about 90 million households in the USA can access this station.

So what will happen?  This is a photo I just took.  24 hours from now, that left turn will need to occur over that horizon, else Hurricane Lane will continue on right over my apartment.  If Category 3 status dominated and continues, Honolulu will be in really big trouble.

Well, heck, all is not gloom and doom in Purgatory.  The Honolulu Little League team yesterday torched New York 10-0, and will play the winner of either Georgia or New York, on ESPN at 1:30PM Hawaii time today, on Saturday for the national championship.  South Korea will take-on the winner of Japan-Puerto Rico, then the final two victors will vie on Sunday for the world little league championship.  It's becoming clear that those teams with their best pitchers still available will most probably win.

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Day 112 of the Lower Puna Eruption, and just how significant is the lava flow?  According to Rocky Planet:

• 0.25 cubic kilometers of lava has flowed, or 9 million cubic feet.
• Thus, over the 9.5 square kilometer (100,000 square feet) of land covered, that means the lava is 26 (85 feet) meters thick.
• Over the past 35 years, this Kilauea Volcano continuous eruption has produced 4.4 cubic kilometers of lava.

• The Laki eruption on Iceland from 1783-84 gave 15 cubic kilometers.
• The Columbia River Basalts erupted 175,000 cubic kilometers, but that took a few million years.
• One eruption, called the Roza Member, in around ten years dumped 1,300 cubic kilometers, and the lava flowed from Idaho to the Pacific Ocean.  But that was 15 million years ago.

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What was the worst hurricane ever?  That depends on what you want:  deaths, damage, wind speed, etc.

Three years ago, Hurricane Patricia (left) over Mexico, at 200 MPH, was cited as the strongest, ever. Next was Super Typhoon Haiyan, striking the Philippines at 195 MPH.  Atlantic Hurricane Allen in the '80's was mentioned at 190 MPH.

However, earlier this year, another article said that Hurricane Patricia (2015) only tied Typhoon Ida (1958) with 200 MPH winds at third place.  Turns out that Japan's Typhoon Violet (1961) went up to 207 MPH, but that Typhoon Nancy, also in 1961 over Japan, topped them all at 213 MPH.  As you can imagine, 1961 was an extraordinary year, for typhoon season lasted all year.

At #5 was Typhoon Tip in 1979, over Japan, which was only 190 MPH, but had the lowest ever center pressure at 870 millibars (25.59 inches of mercury), making it, by one parameter as the strongest ever.  Normal atmospheric pressure at sea level is 1013 millibars, or 30 inches of mercury, or 14.7 pounds per square inch.  The size was also memorable, 1380 miles in diameter, about half the size of the USA.

Most in the U.S. are familiar with Atlantic hurricanes.  Way back in 1780 such a storm killed around 25,000 in the Caribbean.  More recently, there were around 10,000 deaths from the Galveston storm in 1900 and Hurricane Mitch in 1998 in the Gulf of Mexico.  That 1780 kill of 25,000 would have placed #26 when you consider all tropical cyclones.  

Most of these deaths occurred in the Bay of Bengal, with #1 being the Great Bhola Cyclone of Bangladesh in 1970 with a death toll up to 500,000.

Hurricane Katrina (2005) caused the most damage, $160 billion, with approximately 1500 fatalities, while Hurricane Harvey (2017) cost $125 billion, and killed 68.  The 145 MPH Hurricane Iniki over Kauai in 1992?  $7.4 billion, with 6 deaths.

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Hurricane Lane?

No sense my saying much more, for information keeps shifting.  Here is my view from where I am producing this posting:

In 48 hours or so, the eye of Hurricane Lane will either be right over me or, hopefully, at least a hundred miles south over the horizon.

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