I was planning to continue my serialization of SIMPLE SOLUTION ESSAYS, but will do this maybe tomorrow, for there is some late-breaking news. Remember how I have harped on obesity?
The FDA today approved Arena Pharmaceutical's Belviq, an anti-obesity pill, for two-thirds of Americans are overweight. Belviq sort of looks like Viagra. The stock is interesting to follow, for it was up to 14 in 2007, dropped to 2.50 the following year, jumped to 8 when the FDA was about to pass judgement on this pill in 2010, which was denied for fear of tumors, plummeting the value to 1.2 through much of 2011 into March of this year when it rose to 1.7, then steadily climbing to 8 or so, and roller coastering four times between 11 and 8, ending the day at 11:
ARNA actually dropped 6 cents today, as the approval was anticipated, and it was the most actively traded stock. However, the more exciting news might well be: Vivus (stock up 7% today, so signs look good--their Qsymia--formerly Qnexa--promises a weight loss of 10% with a decision expected next month) and Orexigen Therapeutics (up 20% today, so this really looks good) also have their pills being reviewed.
The lead link above of Belviq showed only a 3 to 3.7% weight loss, with 5% or more for those without diabetes. This drop should be experienced within three months. What happens is that the brain is fooled into thinking you are full only after eating a small quantity of food. A doctor's prescription will be required, where your Body-Mass Index needs to be 30 or greater, unless you have a weight-related health condition (such as high blood pressure), where a 27 index will gain approval. According to the CDC calculator, my BMI is 24.8, and I am on the high end of normal. I've never been up to 27, so Belviq will not be one of my options. In Japan, I would be considered overweight. Anyway the mantra to exercise and eat well/less is best. According to the Talking Moose, 70% have a higher BMI than I do, so the market potential is huge. The Mayo Clinic also has a useful BMI Calculator if you don't know how fat you are.
Some might remember the FDA banning the sale of the "fen-phen" diet-drug combination in 1997. Eighteen million were on this treatment, and many had died. Worse, deaths are still occurring today. There is a residual effect. The diet pills were Pondimin and Redux, while the stimulant, Phentermine, put patients in a better mood to stick to this mix. There were 50,000 lawsuits and Wyeth remains liable for up to $14 billion.
Meridia, was pulled in 2010, leaving Orlistat as the only option left. The mechanism, which makes sense, prevents fat from being absorbed in the intestines. There are two versions: Roche's Xenical (left), approved 13 years ago, and GlaxoSmithKline Alli, an over the counter option, okayed in 2007. These should have been wonder drugs: reduce weight while lowering blood pressure and preventing the onset of diabetes. Weight loss was 5% after three months. So why didn't these obesity pills prevail? Supposedly onerous gastrointestinal side effects and questions about impaired liver function. I enjoyed this quote:
"You can never trust a fart when taking this medicine."
The cost of a three month supply of Alli from Amazon.com was $212. Xenical might be available from Canada for $1.83/pill. Many complained that these medications did not help them at all. As it is sometimes difficult to actually purchase these pills, I guess they are doing fine, so there has been a market.
Why will Belviq and the others to be approved become bigger sellers? Would you rather exercise? The following from XXfactor:
Belviq will be available early in 2013, and the price is currently not available, although some company representative hinted at about the cost of a Venti Latte in New York, which is $3.57 at Starbucks. One calculation is that you need two pills per day, for a cost of around $200/month. If half that, then, perhaps $100/month. $300 to lose around 10 pounds (5% of 150 pounds is 7.5 pounds, but that 10% Onexa is coming) in three months? The pill will beat running. As the next generation will cost more, they can succeed if the side effects are not as noisy and smelly as Xenical and Alli, and there is no deleterious effect on your liver.
"You can never trust a fart when taking this medicine."
The cost of a three month supply of Alli from Amazon.com was $212. Xenical might be available from Canada for $1.83/pill. Many complained that these medications did not help them at all. As it is sometimes difficult to actually purchase these pills, I guess they are doing fine, so there has been a market.
Why will Belviq and the others to be approved become bigger sellers? Would you rather exercise? The following from XXfactor:
Belviq will be available early in 2013, and the price is currently not available, although some company representative hinted at about the cost of a Venti Latte in New York, which is $3.57 at Starbucks. One calculation is that you need two pills per day, for a cost of around $200/month. If half that, then, perhaps $100/month. $300 to lose around 10 pounds (5% of 150 pounds is 7.5 pounds, but that 10% Onexa is coming) in three months? The pill will beat running. As the next generation will cost more, they can succeed if the side effects are not as noisy and smelly as Xenical and Alli, and there is no deleterious effect on your liver.
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