COVID-19: Simplified Facts

From Worldometer, I have adjusted this table to show how new deaths best determine the phase of COVID-19:

DAY     China   Italy   USA   Spain   Germany   S. Korea  WORLD

May   1         0    269   1897      281          113               1        5624
          2         0    474    1691     276            76               2        5215
          3         0    174    1154     164            54               0        3481
          4         0    195    1324     164          127               2        4096
          5         0    236    2350     185              ?               2        5787
          6         0    369    2528     244          282               1        6811

          7         0    274    2129     213          117               1        5589
          8         0    243    1687     229          118               0        5550
          9         0    194    1422     179            39               0        4248
        10         0    165      750     143            20               0        3510
        11         0    179    1008     123            92               0        3403

Summary:  A mixed day, with the USA and Germany showing increases in new deaths, with the others in this above list declining.  Both China and South Korea had no new deaths.

There have been several excellent attempts at making the COVID-19 Pandemic understandable.  Here is a long one from Dr. Andrew Samis of Queens University in Canada that I will try to crystallize:

• The vast majority of cases likely result from people getting the virus on their hands from touching surfaces with the virus on them, then touching their mouth, nose, or eyes.  And studies have shown the average person touches their face 16 times an hour and isn't even aware of it!
• DO NOT TOUCH YOUR FACE while shopping
• So that is how you get COVID-19 – touching virus-laden surfaces (door handles, gas pumps, money, shopping carts, ATM machines, debit card machines, store products someone else has handled, chip bags, countertops, paper bags, shaking hands, railings on stairs, etc) and then touching your mouth, nose, or eyes inadvertently before you have had a chance to clean your hands.
•  Interestingly, you are likely most contagious in the 16 hours before you start to have symptoms to about two days after the symptoms start and are mild but getting worse. This means YOU ARE MOST CONTAGIOUS WHEN YOU ARE STILL FEELING OK AND MAY BE OUT AND ABOUT AND SPREADING IT EVERYWHERE.  The average person who gets COVID-19 spreads it to two other people, and it is postulated this most likely occurs during the time just before they get symptoms.
• ...initial symptoms with the percentage of people that get them:
  • 85.5 % - fever greater than 38 Celsius (100.4 F)
  - 88 % - loss of smell or taste or both
• No symptoms to Mild Symptoms: The first five days (on average) you have no symptoms with an increasing level of infectivity. Then after about five days, and until a total of about 14 days, you are infective to others with very mild symptoms. Sniffles, frog in your throat, etc. What is important here is that you are CONTAGIOUS FOR ABOUT 14 DAYS WITHOUT ANY REAL SYMPTOMS. This could represent about 30% of all cases. More common in younger people.
• (This from me:  the problem is that no one yet knows how many individuals with COVID-19 are asymptomatic.  This unknown ranges from less than 50% to as high as 94%.  It also depends on when the test is taken.)
• A recent study suggests that nearly half of all cases of COVID-19 are caused by infection from people not showing any symptoms.
• Mild to Moderate Symptoms:  you are contagious for about 3 weeks, but you are CONTAGIOUS FOR THE FIRST 5 DAYS WITHOUT SYMPTOMS. This could represent about 55% of all cases.
• - For people age 10-39 who are healthy there is a 0.2 % death rate
•   For people age 60-69 who are healthy there is a 3.6 % death rate
  - For people age 70-79 who are healthy there is a 8 % death rate
  - For people over 80 who are healthy there is about a 15-22 % death rate
• Those numbers are for healthy people.  If you are associated with a heart attack, stroke, diabetes, asthma, high blood pressure and cancer the rate goes up, so people in their mid 70’s, for example, with a chronic medical problem, could easily have a 33 % chance of dying if they got the disease.
• So far in Ontario today we have over 14,000 positive cases with over 800 people who have died. Of those 800 deaths, 94% have been over the age of 60.
•  If you are older, stay away from people period!
• To show you how many viruses can spread, let me tell you of an experiment done a number of years ago. Researchers placed a device in a person's nostrils that leaked a tiny bit of fluid periodically, simulating a very mild runny nose. They then sent this person to a cocktail party. What they didn't tell anyone is the fluid had a chemical that glowed under a black light. At the end of the party, they got out of the black light. Everyone was astounded how much glowing there was from the fake runny nose. Doorknobs, sofas, the bowl of nuts, the coffee table, the wall, but also on the hands, upper body, and face of many of the guests. This is exactly how COVID-19 can spread from an asymptomatic person. Viruses get around. Person to surface, to person. And if it gets to your mouth, nose or eyes, you get sick!
• (From me:  his wearing of mask explanation is confusing.  He said of course wear a mask to prevent you from passing on this virus if you are sick or asymptomatic.  However, in social distancing, if you find a mask uncomfortable, you will touch your face a lot more than normal, increasing your chances of contracting this virus.)

Our President, meanwhile, spent the weekend fuming over the Russia investigation and making false claims on Twitter about voter fraud, pausing to tweet congratulations to himself for his virus management.  He broke the world record for PUS tweets on Mother's Day with 125.  He is also the first President to ever do this on Mother's Day.  Tweeting began in 2006.

The White House ordered all West Wing employees to wear masks when not sitting at their desks. Two notable exceptions: the president and vice president.  Oh, oh...President Vladimir Putin's spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, has been hospitalized with COVID-19.  Last month, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin tested positive.  Like Trump, Putin doesn't believe in wearing a mask.

Finally, this morning the White House recommended that all (2 million) residents and staff in 15,600 nursing homes be tested for this coronavirus, in two weeks.  That Seattle nursing home hot spot problem was more than two months ago.  Why wasn't this testing done earlier?  Not enough testing kits.  As it is today, EXCEPT FOR THE WHITE HOUSE, you really can only take a test if you have a good reason, unless you happen to live in the City of Los Angeles.  The White House does this daily.  As there are 377 working there, in a month they will use up more than 11,000 kits.  If everyone in the U.S. does this, we would need almost 4 billion test kits this month.  Trump's testing czar, Adm. Brett Giroir, today told the Senate that if all goes well, we can get up to almost 2 million tests/day by September.  By September!  If only one test/person, it would take into next year to test everyone.  I wonder if 15 Craigside qualifies for this coverage, as there is only one hospital floor?

I'm into 1980.  One of the advantages of life in Washington, DC is the variety of activities from free concerts (that July 4th A Capitol Fourth show began while we were there) and museums like the Smithsonian, plus easy driving to Fall colors and Spring flowers.  In fact, for those periods, DC is the most beautiful city in the world. For the year:

• Rubik's cube debuts.
• The USA Olympic Hockey Team defeats the Soviet Union in the Miracle on Ice.
• Iran hostage crisis.
• Mount St. Helens explodes in Washington, killing 57.

• Pac-Man introduced, still the best-selling arcade game of all time.  #2 is Space Invader, which came in 1982 and spurred me to use a computer.
• First news channel Cable News Network, or CNN.
• The USA boycotted the Moscow Summer Olympics.  (The Summer and Winter Olympics were held in the same year until 1994.)
• Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter.

Billboard's #1 hits of 1980 in 4 minutes.

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