COVID-19: Netflix and Pandemics

From Worldometer, I have adjusted this table to show how new deaths best determine the phase of COVID-19:

DAY     China   Italy   USA   Spain   Germany   S. Korea  WORLD

May   1         0    269   1897      281          113               1        5624
          2         0    474    1691     276            76               2        5215
          3         0    174    1154     164            54               0        3481

Summary:

• All these new death numbers showed declines, significantly so for the World.
• Regarding new cases
• World shows 82,260
• USA is most with 27,348
• Russia is #2 with 10,633
• Brazil is #3 with 4,588
• Peru is #4 with 3,394
• Clearly, South and Central America new cases are on the rise.
• Same for India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
• There seems to be the beginning of a blip up for Africa.

• A random test of 500 in Afghanistan revealed ONE-THIRD INFECTED with COVID-19.  This is alarming, and probably indicative of the spread of this virus in undeveloped countries.
• Up to 50% of COVID-19 cases apparently are asymptomatic and don't realize they are dangerous carriers.
• If you divide total cases into total deaths for the world, you get 7%, with the U.S. at 6%.  You can get the data for other countries at this site.  When all is said and done, the expectation is that only 0.7% of those who get infected will die.  Deaths are more or less accurately recorded.  If anything, there probably are more.  However, no one knows how many actually get infected because of asymptomatic cases and others who get sick from this virus but recover at home without getting tested.  Thus, dividing 0.007 into total deaths, you get, today, 35.4 million world cases,  and 9.8 million USA cases, not 1.2 million.
• Where do I get a 0.7% mortality rate?  First, this death rate for the seasonal flu is 0.1%.  Wuhan says theirs was 1.4%.  For now, accept their death rate.  I'm sure they didn't test many asymptomatic residents.  Divide by 2 and get 0.7%.  A month ago, I collected all the available data and analyses and came to a conclusion that 0.6% of those who contracted COVID-19 would die.  And other estimates are even lower:
• ...a recent German study reported an IFR (infection fatality rate, same as mortality rate) for COVID-19 at about 0.4 percent.
• For comparison, the U.S. infection fatality rates for the 1957–58 flu epidemic was around 0.27 percent; for the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic, it was about 2.6 percent. For seasonal flu, the rate typically averages around 0.1 percent. Basically, the German researchers found that the coronavirus kills about four times as many infected people than seasonal flu viruses do.
• The two California studies estimate that the percentage of the U.S. adult population that is infected is between 2.5 and 5.6 percent. This yields an estimate of adult Americans already infected ranging from 6.4 to 14.2 million. Given that 44,000 have died of the disease, this calculation produces IFRs ranging between 0.7 and 0.3 percent.

• To take this analysis to the extreme, averaging 0.7% and 0.3% to 0.5% suggests that 13.7 million Americans have already been infected, or 4.2% of the national population.  This compares to the 0.36% that you can calculate if you go to the current statistics.  Thus, if you open up the economy under this circumstance, then 95.8% of the roaming population are still susceptible to COVID-19.  A second wave will most probably occur.

• What will be the number of ultimate deaths from COVID-19?
• World should double, and maybe triple or more, depending on Africa, India and South America.
• If expansion of this infection seriously encroaches into those regions, the World will remain in limbo for some time to come.
• If the USA doubles, there will be 137,196 deaths.
• Thus, look at it this way:  If we end up at 137,196 deaths, divide that by .005 and you get 27.4 million, or 8.4% of the national population.  Still, 91.6% would remain susceptible to this coronavirus.  If people go back to normal, there probably will be a second wave.  True, many, if not most, might still take special precautions, like face masks, etc., but how much so?  Of course, if the mortality rate ends up at 1%, then 95.8% would still be in danger.

• Chances are that some vaccine will be developed, which will be added to your annual flu shot.  Keep in mind that if you're average, you will catch the flu every 6-10 years.  Already, there are strains of coronavirus distinctly different from COVID-19 in this seasonal flu mix.  COVID-19 will just become part of the mix every year. 
• That previous H1N1 virus pandemic a decade ago resulted in a vaccine, which is included in the seasonal flu shot.  This is part of why some flus are worse than others.  Depends on which one you get depending on your immunity conditions.

Do you click on Netflix and scan through their list to find something to watch?  Here is a better way.  WIRED has a list of 42 of the Best Documentaries on Netflix.  Digital Trends has the The 50 Best Movies on Netflix.  Just was published on 1 May 2020.  Many Amazon Prime offerings require a rental charge.  Aside from the monthly charge, everything on Netflix is free.

Last night I happened to watch Pandemic:  How to Prevent an Outbreak,  a six-part documentary that was released on 22 January 2020, BEFORE COVID-19 was named.  They used all those terms, like intubation, now familiar to us.  They were so prescient that I marvel at their foresight.  Rotten Tomatoes reviewers gave it a 100% rating!

Surrounded by COVID-19 in the real world, here is a list of pandemic films.  I hate zombie movies, but will include some anyway.  South Korea was especially ahead of the times with several productions:

• Outbreak:  (Netflix) 1995 RT 59%/56%  An Ebola-like outbreak brings in the CDC and military to California, with Dustin Hoffman, Morgan Freeman, Rene Russo, Kevin Spacey, Donald Sutherland, Cuba Gooding and Patrick Dempsey.  Interestingly enough, at release of the production, Zaire was in midst of an Ebola outbreak.

• Contagion:  (Hulu) 2011 RT 84%/63%  Steven Soderbergh's film kills off Gwyneth Paltrow early, with a cast that also included Matt Damon, Marion Cotillard, Laurence Fishburne, Jude Law, Kate Winslet, Bryan Cranston, Elliott Gould and Sanjay Gupta, who plays himself.  A pandemic transmitted by respiratory droplets linked to SARS and H1N1 pandemics.
• The Flu:  (Amazon Prime) 2013 RT 36%/61%  A South Korean film where a deadly strain of H5N1 kills victims in 36 hours.

• The Cassandra Crossing:  (You Tube, Google Play) 1977 RT 30%/52%  Pneumonic plague threatens with a cast of Sophia Loren, Richard Harris, Burt Lancaster, Ava Gardner, Martin Sheen, Lee Strasberg and O.J. Simpson.
• Infection:  (Tubi and Vudu) 2004 RT 60%/57%  A Japanese R-rated production where the symptom is the body turning to green goo.

• Virus:  (Amazon Prime)  2019  RT no rating  A movie from India based on the 2018 Nipah virus outbreak in Kerala.
• Virus (this is the whole movie):  (Amazon Prime) 1980  RT //57%   A Japanese contagion movie abut the Italian Flu, which has pretty much wiped out the world.
• Deranged:  (You Tube) 2012 RT 60%/57%  South Korean sci-fi thriller of a mutant parasite brainwashing its hosts.

• Carriers:  (Netflix) 2009 RT 68%/39%  Viral pandemic kills much of the world and sweeps across the USA, with Chris Pine.
• The Last Days:  (Hulu, Netflix, Amazon Prime) 2014 RT 90%/49%  A Spanish production of a mysterious epidemic that spreads worldwide and keeps people indoors.
• Panic in the Streets: (Amazon Prime, Netflix) 1950 RT 96%/77%  A film noir of a pnuemonic plague directed by Elia Kazan in New Orleans, with Richard Widmark, Paul Douglas, Barbara Bel Geddes, Jack Palance and Zero Mostel.

• Train to Busan:  (Netflix) 2016 RT 94%/88%  I hate zombie movies, but this South Korean film got such good reviews that I include it.
• World War Z:  (Hulu) 2013  RT 66%/72%  Another zombie flick, starring Brad Pitt.  I mistakenly went to see it when it first came out and didn't realize that the Z stood for zombie.
• Mayhem:  (Amazon Prime) 2017 RT 85%/63%  An action/comedy/horror film about hungry savages, but not zombies, as the epidemic.

• Wyrmwood:  (Amazon Prime) 2015 RT 81%/58%  Mad Max like contagion film, including disco music.
• I am Legend:  (Amazon Prime) 2007 RT 68%/68%  Will Smith plays a virologist trying to survive a modified measles virus that was suppose to cure cancer, but wipes out 90% of humanity.  There are also vampire monsters, yikes.
• Last Man on Earth:  (Amazon Prime, Netflix)  1964  RT 79%/69%  Same film as above, except Vincent Price plays Will Smith.
• The Omega Man:  (Amazon Prime, Netflix) 1971 RT 65%/53%  Charlton Heston plays Will Smith.

• 12 Monkeys:  (Hulu) 1995 RT 88%/91%  Bruce Willis, Brad Pitt, Madeleine Stowe and Christopher Plummer contend with a deadly virus that almost wipes out humanity in 1996.  Willis is sent back in time to help scientist find a cure, but arrives too early and hospitalized at a mental hospital.
• 12 Monkeys: (SyFy, Hulu, Amazon Prime)  2015-2019, four seasons, 47 episodes, RT reviewers gave Season 1 only a 60% rating, but Seasons 3 and 4 got 100%  Based on the above film.

• The Andromeda Strain:  (Netflix, Amazon Prime)  1971  RT 67%/72%  Film of Michael Crichton's novel about a deadly alien virus.
• The Seventh Seal (this is the whole film): (Vudu)  1957 RT 93%/93%  A Swedish fantasy about the Black Death, considered to be one of the classics of world cinema.
• Many more, like Children of Men (Clive Owen, Julianne Moore, Hulu), Doomsday, The Maze Runner franchise (Amazon Prime), Black Death (Eddie Redmayne and the Plague, Amazon Prime), Death in Venice (cholera and Dirk Bogarde, Amazon Prime), The Seventh Seal (Ingmar Bergman, Amazon Prime), 1918 (the Spanish Flu in Texas), Jezebel (Bette Davis, Henry Fonda, Amazon Prime), Invasion of the Body Snatchers, Slither, Night of the Comet, Shivers, Faust...and the list goes on and on. 

This might be useful for Netflix customers.  The past week I've received at least half a dozen e-mails, saying that they are now not able to bill me because my credit card info cannot be accessed.  I needed to click on a certain symbol to correct this deficiency.  I've been wondering anyway how they billed me when my credit card changed every so often, for it has been almost a decade.  So I called Netflix, and, through my e-mail address, they were able to confirm that I'm okay.  Don't be scammed!!!  I'm still a little perplexed at how they always have the right info.

Billboard's #1 hits of 1972, in eight minutes.  A monumental year, for I:

• Finished my dissertation on Tunable Organic Dye Laser Irradiation of Escherichia coli.  You can read the whole thing by clicking on it.
• Pearl's parents were with us on our drive back, stopping off in Atlanta for a Braves baseball game (where Pearl got a foul ball and gave it to her father, who was a good pitcher in his day), New York City and a dozen other stops across the nation to California.
• It took a good bit of luck to gain a position at the University of Hawaii, joining the College of Engineering, for they had no chemical engineering department.  Still don't.

I'll close with a song written by Waqidi Falicoff in support of March for Our Lives.  41 years ago, he, George Koide and I published a book, Solar/Wind Handbook for Hawaii.  He now lives in Oregon and is actively developing optics products.  All these years I've been looking at this cover and only today appreciated the appropriateness of the symbolism.  I now see how that image represents both wind and solar energy.

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