Have you heard of
INTRADE? It's been around for a decade now and operates out of the Republic of Ireland. The founder of the company, John Delaney, a few months ago died 50 meters from the top of Mount Everest and his body could not be recovered.
Like the stock market and sport betting, you can actually invest in your candidate. For example (click on
Refresh--just below to the right--and you can view the latest tally):
It's difficult to understand this table, but, look towards the bottom and you will see that 64.5% of investors predict Mitt Romney winning the Republican nomination, with 25.4% going to Newt Gingrich. (
WHOOPS: the numbers keep changing because this table automatically refreshes...sorry). Scanning further up the table, you will see that Gingrich is favored over Romney in Florida, 57% to 43.5%.
Clicking on which party will prevail in the November presidential election, you will observe that at this time only 42.9% think the Republican candidate will beat Barack Obama on November 6.
If Ron Paul becomes a serious independent candidate, Obama will almost surely prevail. If not, then the Super PACS could determine the winner, unless the
presidential debates proceed according to
New Gingrich's super PAC.
Almost exactly two years ago (23January2010), the
Supreme Court prohibited government from placing limits of independent spending for political purposes by corporations and unions. In short, a political action committee can spend whatever it can get to support a candidate, as long as this group does not connive with that person. Sure, then why are former staff members almost always chairing these super PACs? Future ones will be smarter about this. Read recent columns by conservative
Jacob Sullum and liberal
Ann McFeatters for details.
Anyway, at least $6 billion will be spent on the presidential campaign. These super PACS will dominate. Why? 'cause Romney will need to use a good part of his funding just to fend off his Republican challengers. Once he is declared the Republican contender, though, it will be a simple matter of corporations and rich individuals immediately raising billions of dollars to match what Obama and his super PACs have been accumulating.
Voters are sheep. They believe what they see on television or read. Money, as much as the economy, could determine who will be our next president. For example, many independents (who will determine the winner) have already forgotten that the Republicans ruined the economy, blame Obama for our current condition, and don't realize that he never had an economic policy but had to react to a looming depression.
Barack Obama tonight gave his first 2012 presidential campaign speech. It was also his 2012 State of the Union address:
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The Dow Jones Industrials slipped 33 to 12,675, with the European market also down, but up in the Orient. Gold dropped $9/toz to $1667, while the WTI is at $99/barrel and Brent at $110/barrel.
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