THE FUTURE OF ELECTRICITY, WITH A FOCUS ON HAWAII
The first thought that comes to mind is why, with an abundance of renewable sources throughout the state, Hawaii does not lead the world in advancing the sustainable resources. The primary reason is a combination of cost and time. We had great plans in the 70’s and 80’s, but the price of petroleum sunk to an all time low in 1998. Yes, the real cost of energy dropped below that of 1973 (go to part 2 or the U.S. Energy Information Administration), just before the first Energy Crisis. See the red line dipping around 1998? That was the lowest price of gasoline, ever. Thus, renewable fuels could not compete for transport applications and our winds and sun could not generate electricity as cheaply as fossil fuels and nuclear.
Hawaii is the only state stuck with oil for power generation. Unbelievably, in March of this year, of all the oil used in the U.S. for electricity, Hawaii used about half. Hawaii's percentage of oil used for electricity is 70%. The Nation? About 1% from oil, 50% coal.
A reasonable rule of thumb is that coal and nuclear electricity can be produced for from 4-6 cents/kWh, wind and geothermal electricity about 6 cents/kWh, direct solar 15 cents/kWh and solar PV more than 20 cents/kWh. However, new coal (with carbon dioxide capture) and nuclear powerplants now are expected to produce electricity for something higher than 15 cents/kWh.
However, next generation energy sources, are faced with an almost impossible time problem. From research to commercialization could well be a generation (25 years) because it takes that long for technology development, public acceptance, the governmental regulatory process and, infrastructural development. Furthermore, if oil suddenly jumps to $147/barrel, then crashes down to $35/barrel a year later, financial organizations get burnt, and they more so become reluctant to take any future risks. The recent recession will thus make it even more difficult to gain loans unless the Federal Government provides for some guarantees.
Hydroelectric, wind power and geothermal energy are the three renewable sources now competitive with coal and nuclear. Scratch hydro, because there is not much of this in the state. Our winds on Maui, Molokai, and the Big Island, plus geothermal heat on that island, will be developed if the undersea cable project can be financed and built for from one to three billion bucks. Ultimately, Kauai (the depths exceeding 10,000 feet make this island a spectator for now) could be connected with microwave or hydrogen...or cable.
I’ve always felt that Hawaii had the clout in Congress to pass something akin to the Federal Aid Highway Act of 1956 signed into law by President Dwight Eisenhower. With Daniel Inouye the most powerful senator in Congress and Barack Obama the most powerful man in the world, surely, they should be able to pass a National Grid Act of 2011, using Hawaii as the test case site to initiate the program. A billion or two for this pioneering venture would help.
Regarding Hawaii and today, first, it would make sense to replace incandescent with fluorescent bulb, plus all the other conservation measures you can justify. Certainly install a solar water heater on your roof or apartment building. You ask, why don’t residents also install a windmill and solar photovoltaic arrays? First, homes are not built in good wind regimes, but while you can consider a small wind energy conversion system to vent your home to minimize air conditioner costs, don’t even think about a 10 kW wind device to satisfy your demand. You need about a 14 MPH wind average over the year to make this worthwhile, and I would guess that less than 1% of homes are so blessed.
A PV system, however, is beginning to get intriguingly attractive, especially in Hawaii, where we pay two to three times (25-32 cents/kWh versus 11 cents/kWh) that of the Nation. For the longest while PV costs have exceeded 20 cents/kWh, and probably closer to double that. The big advantage is that, while many of those major wind farms (6 cents/kWh cost, but almost double that to deliver the electricity) need to connect to a distant or insufficient grid, while you are already linked. Two key incentives are generous Federal/State tax breaks and improving feed-in tariffs. New homes should soon begin to sell with the solar heating/PV system installed, for roofing requirements can be significantly reduced with well-designed architecture. A retrofit for an existing house will still set you back $25,000, but the amount you actually pay will depend on those tax incentives.
Germany went ultra progressive by legislating utility companies to pay:
Feed-in Law fixes tariffs for approved renewable energy projects for a 20-year period from the plant commissioning and will apply incremental price cuts. Tariffs were initially set at 48.1 cents per kilowatt hour for solar energy, 8.6 cents per kWh for wind, from 9.6 to 8.2 cents per kWh for biomass, 8.4 to 6.7 cents per kWh for geothermal and 7.2 to 6.3 cents per kWh for hydropower, waste and sewage gas.
This made Germany the #1 PV country in the world, but payments are, as legislated, depreciating, and there is a sunset clause. Spain initially did the same, but unexpectedly reneged, and their solar industry virtually collapsed.
There is a lesson or two to learn here. As Hawaii re-looks at geothermal energy and evaluates the coming of ocean thermal energy conversion, both, by the way, the only BASELOAD (the sun and winds come and go) options, it is clear that considerable government participation will be necessary to accelerate any development.
This series will continue.
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That nagging storm in the Gulf Mexico is moving west towards the oil spill area.
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