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วันพุธที่ 21 มกราคม พ.ศ. 2552

THE STOCK MARKET (Part 1)

Let’s start with a small number: $11 trillion. This is what the U.S. debt is soon to hit, meaning that each of us owes somebody $35,000. But who holds those debts? Well, to begin with, the U.S. government owes a little more than half, their investment from our Social Security, Medicare and other accounts. Thus, you can say that we owe most of the debt to ourselves. About 25% is owned by foreign governments, with Japan as #1, China #2, United Kingdom #3 and oil exporting countries #4 (this last chunk only amounts to a bit more than a tenth of a trillion). The rest of our debt holders include state and local governments, individual investors, pension funds, banks and credit unions (this small change of $120 billion is slightly more than that held by those oil exporters), and so on. So should we fear China posturing for favorable policies in exchange for leaving their money in this pot? Probably not.

On to bigger stuff, the world stock market capitalization (share price times number of shares) stood as follows:
  • End of 1997.....$22 trillion
  • End of 2007....$63 trillion
  • 22Jan2008......$50 trillion (?)
Wikipedia, though, reports that the world stock market had a value of $36.6 trillion at the beginning of October 2008, so there is some discrepancy here. Supposedly, stocks lost $1.2 trillion in value on September 29, 2008 when the Dow Jones Industrials skidded 778 points, translating the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 to a worth of around $12 trillion today when the DJI rested just above 8000. But this is just the USA.

In any case, the derivatives market is said to be close to $500 trillion. Well, maybe even that’s limiting, for the Bank for
International Settlements reports a number exceeding a quadrillion dollars, or $1,144 trillion, when you include over the counter derivatives. This is $170,000 for each living person on this planet. The current global Gross Domestic Product, in comparison, is $57 trillion, or $8,700 per person. What do all these numbers mean? (To be continued tomorrow.)
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The Dow Jones Industrials experienced a big rally today, up 279 (3.5%) to 8228. World markets were mixed, but mostly down. Crude oil almost jumped $4/barrel to $44.28 (NYMEX). The Dated Brent Spot was at $44.40/bbl. Why this increase when traders are expecting a swelling of crude inventories in the soon to be released government report? Most probably, the rebound in the stock market provided sufficient impetus for the day.
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