BLOG STOCK CHALLENGE: 7October2013

The stock market is down today.  My blog stock challenge began almost five years ago on 4November2008, with Ford added in March of 2009.  As of yesterday, my portfolio showed an increased value of 3.40, or 340% of my original investment.  Am I a stock market genius?  Nope, I just happened to begin this challenge when the market was down (Dow Jones Industrial Average from late 2008 to Friday, where the Dow closed at 15,073):

But notice that the market only almost doubled, so I did something else right.  What?  I'm not sure.

I've had some big losers in the past (not part of this stock challenge):  United Airlines and Enron, both going bankrupt.  There were a few amazing winners:  also not part of this challenge, but I bought Amazon at $16.64, and it closed on Friday at $319.04, an increase of 1795%.  The story of SIRI (Sirius SM Radio), also not involved with this challenge, is worthy of retelling:

• In that March 2009 period when the market reached a recent low, I learned that General Motors might go bankrupt or not.  To balance my Ford shares, I bought some GM.  The company did go under, so I thought I lost everything.  

• Not so.  In a few days, GM became GMX, and I still had my money in it.  Two weeks later the value jumped 20%, so I sold.  Thus, in a few weeks, I made 20% on GMX.  

• As this was "free" money, I decided to re-invest in three stocks that were also in dire trouble:  Sirius Radio, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  To make a long story short, FMCC and FNMA have both doubled and SIRI has jumped by 1028%.

While you can't depend on it, luck helps.  GM was, actually, part of my blog stock challenge, but I thought I'd wash it out without that 20% gain.  What I really should do is to insert FMCC, FNMA and SIRI, so my current portfolio should show a gain greater than 340%.

Of course, if you're retired, the weekend does not end on Sunday.  I bought a bento plate of shoyu pork and chicken curry at Don Quixote, with an appropriate set of drinks, and went to Magic Island:

My close friend, Honu, came by and said hi:

I then had a Cuban and gazed above:

I'm more and more convinced that I already live in Heaven.  On the way back to my car, I took a photo of the latest newly married couple from Japan:

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Typhoon Danas, now a Category 4 at 140 MPH, just passed through the islands of Okinawa, missing Naha, and appears to have a projected track along the west coast (Sea of Japan) of Kyushu and Honshu, with Nagasaki, Fukuoka and Matsue to be affected:

Matsue is particularly vulnerable, for typhoons normally don't go there and everything seems to be near sea level.  Here is a blog site from that city you can follow, and a weather guide, as Danas approaches.  I once gave a lecture to the employees of Komatsu Electric Industry in that fine city.  Best to Akio Komatsu.

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MY WEEKEND IN HONOLULU AND GRAVITY

I'm enjoying my life of luxury in Honolulu.  I'll be in Las Vegas next weekend to see my family and perhaps go to the University of Hawaii versus University of Nevada at Las Vegas football game.

On Friday I usually have lunch on the beach, mostly a bento plate with beer on Magic Island under a coconut tree sitting in a recliner with surfers and Diamond Head as the backdrop.  This time it was at Orchids with the Weinbergs:

Gerry is celebrating her first birthday and the backdrop for Carl is the same as my photo at the top of this blog.  I had fish and chips (body of their son David in this background, with Debby to his right) dish:

Then on Saturday I had a personal tailgate of pork laulau, rice, lomi-lomi salmon and boiled peanuts, with beer:

The Hawaii football team lost to San Jose State, and there are now murmurings of von Appen.

Scroll down to my Sunday brunch at Michel's with Judy and John Collins.  Later I went to see Gravity in IMAX and 3D.  The movie is tensely gripping and holds your attention, although the ending might have been much too Hollywoodish.  Yet, this was an experience I can only recommend to anyone.  Outer space, George Clooney, Sandra Bullock, the Ed Harris voice of Mission Control and disaster.  That's about it.    

Scientifically, somewhat lacking, as the orbits of the International Space Station and Hubble Telescope are not close enough for astronaut migration.  Plus, while there is a Chinese space station out there, which plays hero (the Chinese movie market is #2 to the U.S.), it is currently not equipped for that role.  A thought occurred to me that as the script ended the way it did, a parade through Tiananmen Square might have had a bigger impact.  Note:  I have not really given away all that much.

Rotten Tomatoes gave the movie 98% reviewers and 90% audience ratings.  Gravity was easily #1 at the box office this weekend, and with revenues of $56 million, recouped more than half of the $100 million cost of production.  This is the most successful October opening ever in the  history of film!   In comparison, World War Z, with Brad Pitt and zombies, cost $190 million and made $202 million.  I can already predict that Sandra Bullock will get an Oscar nomination for Best Actress.

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Scroll down to the most powerful of existing ocean storms, Typhoon Damas, but China got hit by Typhoon Fitow, a weakened Tropical Storm Karen moved through the South and Tropical Storm Narda at 40 MPH in the East Pacific will become a hurricane in a day or two and move in the general direction of Hawaii...but will weaken before getting close.

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JUDY AND JOHN COLLINS: Founders of the Triathlon

I have a lot of important friends, but the two most famous must be Judy and John Collins, for they founded the Ironman Triathlon.  How and why?

According to Wikipedia, the concept started as early as 1902 in France, but with running, cycling and canoeing.  In the 1920's, there was the "Les trois sports,"  a really short version of running (1.86 miles), biking (8.1 miles) and swimming (across the channel Marne). which is still held annually.  Thus, the French should be credited with the first conceptualization, sort of like ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC).  

However, like in OTEC, where French developers never once attained net positive, in 1979 accomplished by Lockheed with Mini-OTEC in Hawaii, the modern triathlon began in San Diego, USA on 25September1974 with a 6 mile run, 5 mile bike ride and 500 yards swim.  Forty six participated and the Collins family finished 34th (son Michael), 33rd (daughter Kristin), 30th (Judy) and 22nd or 23rd (John).

The U.S. Navy transferred John to Honolulu, and this where John and Judy organized the first Ironman Triathlon on 18February1978:  combining the Waikiki Rough Water Swim, a bike ride around Oahu and a full marathon, a distance of a little over 140.6 miles.  Eleven finished, including John, and Gordon Haller (left) became the first Ironman in 11 hours, 46 minutes and 58 seconds. From Wikipedia:

“	Swim 2.4 miles! Bike 112 miles! Run 26.2 miles! Brag for the rest of your life![12]	”
	— Commander Collins, USN (1978)

To the right is Julie Moss crawling the final 20 yards to the finish line in the 1982 Ironman, where ABC's Jim McKay called it the most inspiring sports moment he had ever witnessed.  She did not win, but the Ironman thereby captured the imagination of the world.

The current men's record, now held in Kona (next one, the 35th, on October 12--that's why the Collins' are here, as they come every 5 or 10 years--they, incidentally, live in Panama City, Panama and Coronado, California), is 8 hours 3 minutes 56 seconds by Craig Alexander (left), and women's, 8 hours 54 minutes 2 seconds by Chrissie Wellington (right).  I would have big trouble just running the marathon in those times,  but I wouldn't even get to that stage, for I would not survive the swim.  In 1977 Judy became the first female to swim from Lanai to Maui.

I almost killed the Ironman, as in 1977 Judy worked with me at the University of Hawaii on a National Science Foundation project.  She today (the photo of John and Judy at the top was taken this morning at Michel's, where we were having brunch) showed me a picture (no, I'm not dancing the hula) of how I looked in those days, this shot with Jim Shon, who also worked on this NSF effort, and later became a State Legislator.  When she told me she and her husband were planning to combine all three events on the same day, I expressed wonderment and mumbled something like competitors will die.  Actually, I was right, as there were 43 fatalities just from 2003 to 2011, 30 during the swim portion.

Well, on a happier note, Judy still competes, we are all alive and well, except John and I have knee pains:

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Typhoon Danas is beginning to look a lot more formidable, now a Category 4 at 135 MPH, with a predicted track north of Naha, Okinawa, and currently expected to ease by Fukuoka, then move along the Japan Sea side of Honshu, Japan.

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SHUTDOWN AND SUSAN BENNETT

A few days ago I posted on

   Who Really Cares If Our Government Shuts Down?

Well, we are into day four, the stock market actually went up today, and world markets are mostly doing well...except Japan, which slumped to a four week low of 14024 today:

Note that at the end of 1989, the Nikkei hit an all time high just below 39,000, sinking to as low as 7054 on 10March2009 (the Fukushima cataclysm occurred on 11March2011).  What has this got to do with our government shutdown?  Nothing at all, so back to the USA.

There are 1.8 million Federal civilian workers.  Nearly half work for our Defense and Veteran Affairs Departments.  Our total population is 314 million.  Roughly 0.8 million are now being furloughed, or 0.0025% (that's one fourth of one percent) of us.  This number depends on who you ask, but, around 150 million are working in the country, with 11 million (7.3%) unemployed.  Therefore, our unemployment rate ticked up to 7.8% if you count this furloughed group of civilian feds.

How much, then, are "we" saving by not paying these non-essential workers?  I find this rather high, but as best as I can determine, the average federal employee has a total compensation of $120,000/year.  Read that article and you figure out this figure.  Thus, taxpayers are saving $263 million/day, or almost $100 billion, if this goes on for a year.  Sure, our economy will suffer, but these are non-essential workers.  Actually, the last time there was a shut-down, Congress retroactively paid all those who got furloughed, so they got a free vacation!

Which department suffers the most?

• 97% of 18,134 at NASA
• 95% of 8,709 at HUD
• 94% of 16,205 at the EPA

Least?

• 0%  of 522,144 for the Post Office (they are self-funded)
• 0%  of 535 members of Congress
• Hard to say, as parts of the USDOE work on multi-year funding, but eventually 69% of the 13,814 will be sent home.

This is Friday, so I ask you, who is this?

Susan Bennett, the voice of SIRI.  If you own an iPhone, you would have by now no doubt gotten exasperated with her.  She asks me questions at the most inappropriate times and never seems to provide a helpful answer.

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Tropical Storm Karen now at 65 MPH, will probably not quite become a hurricane, but will soon begin to influence Louisiana, with the eye still scheduled to zoom over Pensacola:

Two serious storms are in the West Pacific.  Typhoon Fitow is now at 100 MPH, will skirt North Taiwan, then crash into China near Wenzhou early Monday:

Right on the heels of Fitow, Tropical Storm Danas will become a typhoon and head straight for Naha, Okinawa, then up the chain to Kyushu, probably easing west into the Sea of Japan:

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A FEW MORE INTERESTING THINGS ABOUT CHINA

I somehow magically began to be sent monthly issues of News China last year.  The September 2013 issue is somewhat tame, but, combined with other news about the country, here are some items of interest:

• What do you think of eating dog meat?
• 43%  Understandable--it's tradition
• 21%  Barbaric--it should be banned
• 18%  It's a health risk
• 10%  It might encourage theft of pet dog
•   6%  I don't care
•   2%  None of the above
• China is not noted for gua bao, pork belly buns, found in the night markets of Taiwan and New York City:

• There are classical Chinese wines like Baijiu or Maotai, generally a sorghum distillate, traditionally at 106 proof.  Prices for this liquor, toasted at banquets, are soaring, and now can't be found for less than $100.  There are cheaper local versions, but to me, they all have peculiar earthy tastes specific to the soil.  Imported grape wines too are expensive, for consider the transport cost and 50% duty.  However, Shanxi's Grace Vineyard is respectable, and vintners in Xinjiang and Ningxia are improving their products.

• 1,500,000 American cockroaches escaped from a Dafeng breeding facility in Jiangsu.  Huh?  You might wonder where traditional Chinese medicines come from?  Well, cockroach extract is "known" to treat cancer and inflammation.  However, such is the accuracy of news coming out of the country, for another report shows another strain of cockroach, and says this medicine can renew bone fractures and cure swollen tongues.  Pulverized cockroaches cost $89/pound.  Anyway, the Central Government reacted by sending five investigators to stamp out the pests.  For the sake of my reader, I chose not to show any pictures of cockroaches.
• As I'm only now just about recovering from my few days in China earlier this year, I just had to report that air pollution is not only lowering the life expectancy of the population, but tourism is dropping.  During the past six months, visitors from Japan dropped by 50%.  During the worst period earlier this year, the pollution wafted across to Japan, where a large number of pedestrians were seeing wearing masks, not to prevent the transmission of viruses or avoid pollen, but to reduce the inhalation of particulates from China

The more fanciful and colorful ones are from China.  In Japan, they wear surgical masks, which are white:

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There are five ocean storms:

The Gulf of Mexico has Tropical Storm Karen, to soon become a hurricane, with landfall projected to be Pensacola this weekend:

The West Pacific has two storms.  Typhoon Fitow, now at 75 MPH, but will strengthen into a Category 2, is projected to squeeze between Taiwan and Okinawa, and appears to have a track in the general direction of Shanghai:

Interestingly enough, Tropical Depression 23 has formed around the Northern Mariana Islands, and is currently modeled to approach Typhoon Fitow as a typhoon:

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CONGRESS, WALRUSES AND THE SIMPSONS

What is that photo above?  I'll get to it later, but October 2 is a rather uneventful day in history.  October 1 at least started the new federal fiscal year.  This is why the budget squabble and differences on Obamacare resulted in our government shutdown yesterday.  Our U.S. Congress likes to play political games to attract attention.  Most of the time, any news is considered better than none for re-election purposes.

Have you noticed the free campaign ads all your congressional delegates get from the nightly news?  They are clearly working diligently to seek that elusive but sensible compromise to settle this nonsense.  They will, of course, succeed, and you will re-elect them this fall or two years henceforth.

As part of the show, President Obama called to the White House Congressional leaders later today.  The 2014 FY budget will not be settled (the last time Congress actually passed the entire Federal Budget was in 1997), but continuing resolutions will again keep the government going, eventually.

There was a 21-day government constipation in 1995/6 under President Bill Clinton when Republicans controlled both houses.  How many of you remember that the Reagan Administration suffered through eight full government shutdowns, each for only one to three days?  So nothing is new, and nothing much happened to our economy.  In all cases, only non-essential (how would you like to be one of them--they represent less than one third of one percent of our populace) civilian federal employees were furloughed, accompanied by closure of national parks.  Congress keeps meeting, our military continues to get paid, airports run as normal and your mail gets delivered.  There are exceptions, as schools can get closed and garbage ignored in D.C.

There will still be another showdown around the middle of this month when the debt limit issue has to be addressed.  See "OUR NATIONAL DEBT" to the right for details, which as of now stands at $16.75 trillion.  Wait a minute, I thought our debt ceiling was $16.7 trillion???

What else is not happening today?  Ice is lacking in the Arctic Ocean.  That is why that photo at the top of 10,000 walruses on land was recently taken.  Actually, nothing again really new, as a similar congregation two years ago accumulated  30,000 of them, and in 2009, a marauding polar bear caused a stampede, resulting in 130 young casualties.  And you thought you had a tough life.

How can I safely report on this late-breaking piece of hyperbole without alarming everyone...but one of the SIMPSON characters will die this season.  Who?  You'll need to watch every episode.  Can you believe that this is now their 25th season?  Yes, this is tantamount to bragging, but I never once watched a full half hour program.  I dare you to view just 50 seconds of the very first clip in 1989.

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Tropical Storm Fitow, now at 70 MPH, will become a typhoon tonight, shifting track by moving west, now skipping Japan and Korea, sneaking between Taiwan and Naha (Okinawa), and predicted for landfall south of Zhoushan late this coming weekend.

THE LATEST BIOENERGY NEWS

RenewableEnergy.World.Com's issue today focuses on Bioenergy News and Information.  You can read the details, so let me very quickly only summarize a couple of items:

1.  The 10 Scariest Challenges for the Biofuels Industry

All ten are worthy, but let me just provide the top three:

• #3  Watering and Dewatering:  the bane of algae is to get the water out of it.
• #2  Oxygen Content:  while fossil fuels have no oxygen, all biomass crops have too much "useless" oxygen, making conversion inefficient:

• #1  Photosynthetic Limit:  which is, at 1-2%, too low.  Quantum dots?

2.  U.S. Navy Program "Excelerates" Alternative Energy

According to Richard Carlin, director of the Office of Naval Research's Sea Warfare and Weapons Department,

  Hawaii is uniquely positioned for such (read article to find out what this is) research, experts say, with unparallelled wind, solar, bioenergy, wave and geothermal resources.  Its population is also keenly aware of the need for alternatives to fossil fuels because the state is dependent on imported oil for its power and energy use, and residents face the highest electricity costs in the nation.

ONR's Asia-Pacific Technology and Education Program and Energy Accelerator efforts are described.

3.  Water + Sunshine = Bioifuel as Lab in California Chases Dream

In August I reported on the Joint Center for Artificial Photosynthesis.  The researchers have a plan to remake fuel as we know it, says Nate Lewis of Caltech.

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Tropical Storm Fitow, currently at 55 miles per hour, will become a Category 3 storm by Friday, with the potential to strike Kyushu this weekend, but models currently have the eye heading for South Korea:

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