POST MORTEM OF SUPERBOWL #45

1.  Packers beat the Steelers 31-25.  The largest TV audience ever watched, 111 million.

2.  Christina fumbled, while the Black Eyed Peas were reasonably entertaining:

3.  The Kettle Brand potato chips package has an expiration date of 26April2011.  I guess they found a way to maintain taste and touch for a really long time.  The original Maui Kitch'n Cook'd, however, was still the best.  Not as good now.

4.  The best commercials were the Doritos pug attack (okay), Pepsi Max's Love Hurts (kind of cruel) and Volkswagen Darth Vader (I liked, but will it sell the car?).

5.  Glee, #5 this past week, followed the Super Bowl.  See where it's at this coming week.  American Idol was #1 and Hawaii Five-O (CBS) #54.  In any case, FOX programs made out with all their "free" ads.  I actually watched the entire program for the first time.  Okay, but not compelling.  The guy in the wheelchair was fantastico.




6.  I had my best meal for 2011:

It rained all day in Honolulu.  It was a most enjoyable day, nevertheless,

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*SUPER BOWL XLV

A case can be made that the Super Bowl is the one most important event each year in the USA.  If television is any indicator, three of the top ten are past super bowls, featuring the 1982 (San Francisco versus Cincinnati) match at #5 with 40 million and 49% of all households watching.  The 49ers qualified for this game because of the "The Catch" by Dwight Clark.  #1 is the MASH final in 1983, with 50 million and 60%.  Actually, as to numbers, last year slightly more than 106 million watched Super Bowl XLIV and just less than 106 million viewed that MASH finale, so the super bowl has already prevailed.

I was in Delhi a year ago during this telecast from Miami.  I had access to more than a hundred international channels, with at least twenty being sports stations.  At five in the morning of Monday, February 8, I searched and searched.  The game was never shown in India.  Yes, football matches were on, at least six soccer and four rugby.  One billion people in India couldn't care less.  

Me?  It was unimportant, except for the fact that I actually woke up early to watch and was mildly disappointed.  Until recently I had a dozen fantasy NFL teams and watched three games every Sunday, plus the Monday night game.  I hosted super bowl gatherings.  I have not seen even one complete game for two years now.

Super Bowl I was 44 years ago, when Green Bay crushed Kansas City, 35-10, as the NFL demolished the upstart AFL.  Super Bowl III might have been the most memorable, for Joe Namath "guaranteed" victory for the New York Jets over the Green Packers, which already had twice beaten the Jets by a combined score of 68-24.  The Jets won SB3 and the AFL went on to win 11 of the next 13 games.

Super Bowl XLV will become the most viewed telecast in the USA, for 89% of men and 68% of females plan to watch.  I've been glancing at the TV since seven this morning and will most certainly tune in at 1:30 because I have been planning my game meals for weeks now.  I began with a Portuguese sausage, Zippy's chili, Claussen kosher pickle, Kettle salt/pepper potato chips and a Kirin beer (sorry Bud).  This, after all, is the ultra junk food day for the nation, although 8 million pounds of avocado will be consumed.  Thanksgiving remains the biggest eating day, 4500 calories/person, not necessarily at the main meal, but snacking over the parades and football games on television.  This makes me now realize that we are becoming a country of the morbidly obese because of television.  But no fear for any cholesterol overdose because I'm taking Simvustatin, and with this pill, you can eat anything you wish...sort of.

I will, though, upgrade my the cholesterol content for the second meal:

Medium rare rib eye

Garlic fried rice

Sauteed foie gras

Buttered asparagus

Tossed salad with Castello Blue Cheese dressing

2006 Truchard Carneros Cabernet Sauvignon, 14.2% alcohol, from the recent Stanford Alumni collection.

It doesn't really matter that SB45 will not be in 3D, not even the commercials, for there is an option for simulated 3D on my set.  But I can't believe I'm saying this:  I'm actually looking forward more to those commercials than the game itself.  The new ones come during the Super Bowl, but after four hours this morning, the KIA soul hamsters "You can get it with this or you can get it with that" are in the lead, for it has come on at least four times now, and the song is kind of catchy.

Which team will win?  I only wish for incredible commercials and a monumental effort ending like the Immaculate Reception, the above leading to the below:

with Franco Harris of the Steelers scoring to win the Division title over the Raiders in 1972.  I am wearing green and yellow, so that would be my sentiment.

Christina Aguilera will perform the National Anthem (here is an earlier version--compare with the one today).

The Black Eyed Peas will be the half-time show.

Finally, this is the perfect day in Honolulu for watching TV.  It is raining:

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Tropical Cyclone Zaka already at 50 MPH has formed north of New Zealand, and will move south, but should weaken.

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ALGAL BIOFUELS FOR LESS THAN $3/GALLON?

My blog of only yesterday reported that the best industry can do today is algal biofuels for $33/gallon.  I was being kind by mentioning it might be possible to reduce this cost by a factor of ten.

Well, after posting that article, I had lunch with Professor Jaw Kai Wang, who, like me, is actively retired, and is currently the only individual still associated with the University of Hawaii who is a member of the National Academy of Engineering.  He was a valuable ally in bringing to the UH the National Science Foundation Marine Bioproducts Engineering Center.  While this is his 52nd year on the Manoa Campus, he has spent the past year or so in China (near Shenzhen) on a project to reduce the cost of producing biofuels from algae.

He convinced me that it is possible to drop the cost of algal biofuels below $3/gallon.  Mind you, $3/gallon is $126/barrel, so oil would still need to shoot past $150/barrel to make even this extremely ambitious target profitable.  With Peak Oil, Global Heating and the Revolution in Africa and Arabian Nations, though, this could be any day now.

Anyway, his concept is simple:

1.  Link the biosystem to the sewage waste from a large city, stack gasses from a coal powerplant and a petroleum refinery.  

2.  Use diatoms as your algae.

That's it!  Given an algal biosystem, the cost of fertilizer and carbon dioxide turn out to be significant.  The sewage water can provide the nutrients (for which you would also be provided a tipping fee) and the powerplant supplies the carbon dioxide (and someday soon, the carbon tax will make even this input a plus, for you gain another tipping fee).  

Diatoms are used because they are sufficiently efficient in converting sunlight into mass, but, more so, can overwhelm any biointruder.  The problem is that the skin is silica, and a temperature of 300 C is needed to crack the surface, thus the need for waste heat from a refinery, which would also be able to refine his biofuel into jet fuel and other products.  Interestingly enough, he says that the seawaters around Hawaii are relatively high in silica, so this would be an ideal site for a major development.  Also, the silica shell, it turns out, can be marketed as a nanosolution to clean out nuclear contaminated soils and utilized for other pollution remediation services.

If you have a few billion dollars to invest, you can contact Professor Wang at: 

   jawkai@hawaii.edu

While his next step will be to build a prototype system in Southern China (for, when he left Taiwan in 1958 after graduating from National Taiwan University, he promised himself he would return to help China, for that was where he was born), he is particularly interested in assisting the right developer build a commercial operation in Hawaii, for he has spent his entire professional career here, and is even more desiring to give back to his adopted home.

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DO CRUISE SHIPS HELP THE LOCAL ECONOMY?

I noticed two cruise ships berthed today.  From a distance, they looked like giants, much larger than the adjacent buildings, for in length, each is more than twice as long as the highest building here is high.  The Sapphire Princess, holding 2670 passengers:

And the majestic MS Queen Elizabeth, with a capacity of a little more than 2000 passengers:

The name of this Cunard Line ship can confuse you.  First of all, it replaced the MS Queen Elizabeth II.  In 2014 will come the aircraft carrier, HMS Queen Elizabeth.

These ships, it turns out, are relatively puny, for Royal Caribbean's Allure of the Seas and Oasis of the Seas each can take on as many as 6360 passengers.  Actually, if you are on a quiz show and are asked which is the largest cruise ship, Allure is two inches longer than Oasis.  Indications are that this as large as cruise ships will get, for these two barely squeeze under a few bridges and barely can fit in some ports.

To answer the question, I wondered, because all I ever did was, perhaps, take a short tour and buy cheap trinkets or a t-shirt at each stop, for the food is free on board.  However, Hawaii is attractive enough that a goodly number actually stays a few days here before and/or after boarding.  Thus, although there can be considerable costs associated with constructing or retrofitting the harbor, all in all, over time, cruise ships should provide a positive factor to the local economy.

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PLANET EARTH AND HUMANITY AT A TIPPING POINT?

SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth described the Tipping Point as follows:

     The tipping point is that threshold when all hell breaks loose, as 

     when water is heated to 212 degrees F, and liquid boils into vapor.

Are we now at this critical phase on Planet Earth for Humanity?  

The largest tropical cyclone (Yasi) in a century just blew through Queensland (Australia) and a monstrous winter storm with temperatures as low as 30 F below zero dropped up to 2 feet of snow through half of the USA, even canceling flights to Dallas, where the Super Bowl will be held on Sunday.  Trust me, weather will not stop the game, for spectators will find a way to get there and they can close the roof if necessary. Anyway, while scientists say these wild swings in weather are just what they are predicting, the average person trying to drive through these conditions can only hope for more global heating.

Well, its happening, as last year was the warmest ever.  The ten hottest years have occurred since 1998.  However, a Rasmussen poll this year indicated that 38% of American voters are not concerned about global warming, and worse, 60% felt that human activity was not the cause, anyway.  About two-thirds believe that renewable energy is the best investment for the country.  Yet you've got to wonder why in 2010, in the USA:

  1.  Wind power installations dropped by 50%.

  2.  New geothermal facilities declined by 92% (only one 15 MW plant was built).

  3.  Shell pulled out of the partnership with Cellana in Hawaii to produce biofuels from algae.  Shell has given up on all fuels from algae initiatives.  Part of the reason is that the best that can done today (Solix) is a product that costs $33/gallon (nearly $1400/barrel, when oil costs less than $100/barrel).  Can we improve the process by more than a factor of 10?  Maybe yes, for there is a swarm of companies out there still trying.

Any hope for Congress making the right decisions?  Nope.  Here is a poll that explains why:

Yes, global warming was second from the bottom, getting a 26% rating.  Of course, this survey was taken by the American Enterprise Institute, which after Tucson tragedy reported that only 29% of respondents had negative feelings about the National Rifle Association and 77% believed that prayers helped Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords survive.  AEI is supposedly nonpartisan, but it represents current Republican thinking.

So, regarding our weather, we are not at the so-called tipping point for something like The Venus Syndrome.  Not even close, in fact.  However, as we continue to dither, at some point in the future we will reach that threshold and the tipping point...unless the following scenarios prevail.  

So much for Planet Earth, but regarding Humanity, the African and Middle Eastern revolution is showing that the tipping point has been reached and exceeded.  Many of these countries are Islamic, run by despots (and their family) for eons.  It does not matter if some of them have been halfway humanitarian, for just the appearance of  public justice in your general neighborhood succeeding is viral, and there will always be a critical mass angry enough in any country to galvanize the populace.  The combination of the virtual network and desperate people can be deadly.

If all this leads to the fall of Saudi Arabia, oil prices will shoot upwards, the economy will enter into a greater recession, if not depression, triggering even more dissatisfaction, leading to a spiral decline close to what some doomsdayers have been predicting as the beginning of the end of humanity as we have known it.  Mind you, society will survive, but that ridiculous notion of the world population, currently at nearly 7 billion, declining to only a billion, could well actually happen.  But not all is gloom, as the survivors will be in great shape to build a sustainable society in the 22nd century.  I'm ever the optimist.

I can be even more upbeat, for even under these really bad case conditions, the odds are that Humanity will likely remain at something close to 7 billion for a while, with American lifestyles for the current and next few generations almost surely dropping.  The plus side is that we will still be solvent, productive and the only world power.  China will get old and never become anything close to a supreme force, Russian will age and sink, Europe will fall in and out of bankruptcy, and global recovery will take a generation or two. All this turmoil will provide time for greener  technologies to be developed before Peak Oil strikes, carbon dioxide emissions will drop and the world could well become a better, but still warmer, place by 2100.  All in all, not exactly doomsday.

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The Dow Jones Industrials was +28 at 12,090, while world markets were mostly up.  Gold fell $4/toz to $1349, while NYMEX oil fell below $90/barrel and the Brent Spot under $100/barrel.

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GOOD AND BAD NEWS ABOUT OUR ENERGY FUTURE

First, some good news, from Secretary of Energy Steven Chu:

"It's not like it's 10 years off," Chu said at a press conference on U.S. clean energy efforts on the sidelines of the climate talks. "It's about five years and it could be sooner. Meanwhile the batteries we do have today are soon going to get better by a factor of two."

Chu said car battery companies have to develop units that last 15 years, improve energy storage capacity by a factor of five to seven, and cut costs by about a factor of three in order to be make electric cars comparable to cars that run on gasoline and diesel.

The good news is that he says these better batteries will be available in five years.  The ridiculously inane news is that these batteries will need to last 15 years, improve energy storage capacity by a factor greater than five and reduce costs by three.  This total package is impossible...impossible.  Especially in five years and probably forever.  

The obvious solution to all the above needs is the direct methanol fuel cell.  But the Department of Energy has banned R and D on this option for the past decade.  Why?  Because the Farm Lobby told them so.  Well, I'm being a bit too harsh, for restrictions have lessened since the Obama administration, but there is no national mandate for this effort and a general negative attitude to anything biomethanol.

For the record, here are the types of possible fuel cells:

Polymer Electrolyte Membrane (PEM) Fuel Cells

Direct Methanol Fuel Cells

Alkaline Fuel Cells

Phosphoric Acid Fuel Cells

Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells

Solid Oxide Fuel Cells

Regenerative Fuel Cells

Comparison of Fuel Cell Technologies

Ready for more good news?  ExxonMobil predicts that annual oil demand will increase from 88 million/barrels today to 100 million/barrels in 2030, and, according to Vice President of Corporate Strategic Planning Bill Colton, the oil industry will have no problem whatsoever meeting the increased demand.  Is he joking or crazy or both?

Let this register for a minute or so.  He is saying there is no such thing as Peak Oil, until 2030, that is.  Can you believe him?   I would bet my life that "something" happens to the price and supply of oil by 2030.  By the way, the title of the article by Jonathan Fahey of AP is:  

EXXON:  GLOBAL GASOLINE DEMAND TO FALL OVER 20 YEARS

In the article itself, Fahey indicates not a fall, but, more a leveling off for gasoline, but an increase for diesel, jet fuel and other transport oils.  Why they chose to run that particular heading mystifies me.  

The only way petroleum can last that long is if the entire Middle East crashes (as might be possible), the world enters a 20-year depression and oil use drastically drops.  Meanwhile, Colton further remarked that ExxonMobil sees no breakthrough in a cheap, lightweight battery that stores a lot of energy.

So who will be right regarding batteries:  Steven Chu or ExxonMobil?  Doesn't matter because the title of this posting should have been RIDICULOUS AND BAD NEWS ABOUT FUTURE ENERGY, ESPECIALLY BATTERIES AND OIL!!!

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The Dow Jones Industrials crept up 31 to 12,073, with world markets mixed.  Gold jumped $19/toz to $1355, while oil settled, NYMEX at $91 and Brent Spot at $102.  However, Egypt is still rioting, Tunisia remains uneasy and there is growing unrest in Algeria, Yemen, Sudan and Jordan.  Has the tipping point been reached and are those pent up emotions close to erupting for most of the Middle East and Africa?

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Tropical Cyclone Yasi, at 170 MPH, came and went with no deaths and $3.5 billion of insured damage (U.S. and Australian dollars are about the same today).

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EARTH-SIZED EXOPLANETS?

Just two days ago I speculated on the Kepler Space Telescope.  Today, World Science reported on possible habitable planets found.  In four months scanning a tiny portion (1/400) of space, Kepler discovered 1,235 planets and 54 candidates sort of like ours, located in a "life" band around their stars.  Here they are:

Yet, I'll continue to stick to PAT, my Man from La Mancha concept, for an elegantly more functional, but cheaper, terrestrial space telescope.

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Tropical Cyclone Yasi crashed into the Queensland coastline between Cairns and Townsville with 180 MPH winds and 30 foot waves, but there, apparently, at first check, were no deaths.  Queensland just a few weeks ago suffered 35 casualties and more than $5 billion damages from floods.

On a lighter level, Punxsutawny Phil did not see his shadow today, providing hopes for an earlier Spring.  Sure, ask Chicago.  Groundhog Day remains one of my favorite films because, in a way, it has represented most of my life:  every day is the same, but better.
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SLEEP MORE AND EAT LESS FOR BREAKFAST

My Chapter 2 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity provided information on nutrition and sleep.  For example, while the conventional practice is to eat a hearty breakfast, because I'm not all than hungry in the morning, I have, maybe, a third of an apple with a small handful of nuts.  Today, the local newspaper reported in a German study from Nutrition Journal, that a smaller breakfast is better!  Hey, apparently I've been doing something right.

I had nine hours of sleep last night.  Perhaps only retired people can afford to do this, but, sleep is also good for you.   According to medical reports:

1. Sleep Keeps Your Heart Healthy

2. Sleep May Prevent Cancer

3. Sleep Reduces Stress

4. Sleep Reduces Inflammation

5. Sleep Makes You More Alert

6. Sleep Bolsters Your Memory

7. Sleep May Help You Lose Weight (and an article this morning indicates that obese children sleep less)

8. Naps Make You Smarter

9. Sleep May Reduce Your Risk for Depre

10. Sleep Helps the Body Make Repairs

Thus, my advice to you today is to SLEEP more and SKIMP on your breakfast.

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The Dow Jones Industrials inched up 2 at 12,042.  Gold fell $5/toz at $1334, while oil is at $91/barrel on the NYMEX and $102 on the Brent Spot.

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Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 155 MPH slammed into the Queensland between Cairns and Townsville last night.  The 400,000 in the possible path prepared well, but what can you do with gusts up to 184 MPH.  Damage will be severe, but loss of life will hopefully be minimal.

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BEST PLACES IN THE WORLD (PART 33: #3 Norway)

The following continues my serialization of the final chapter from SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity:

#3: Norway

Archaeological findings indicate people living in this region for 12,000 years. The Vikings of Norway explored the Americas way before Columbus. In 1349, the Black Death killed half the population. Norway peacefully separated from Sweden in 1905.

Norway has not joined the European Union and has no plans to do so. There is a kind of superiority complex exhibited by this country because of their fossil fuel resources, and independence remains, by a small margin, the prevailing sentiment. Yet, they comply with most of the requirements anyway, and would probably gain by converting to the Euro.

The Kingdom of Norway is a constitutional monarchy with a parliamentary system of government. Depending on the report, either Norway or the U.S. has the second highest GDP/capita in the world in terms of purchasing power parity. Luxembourg is #1. The cost of living in Norway is 30% higher than the U.S, another disadvantage of remaining non-EU. With a relatively small population of less than 5 million, Norway is well endowed with petroleum, natural gas, hydropower, minerals, forests and fisheries.

Why then with so high a cost of living and truly cold temperatures is Norway rated #3 as the best place to live? Easy:

o      #1—Global Peace Index by the Economist.

o      #2—in the 2007 Human Development Index (life expectancy, literacy, standard of living, etc.) by the United Nations, but #1 the previous six years.

o      #1—Press Freedom Index by Reporters Without Borders.

o      #1—State of World’s Mothers by Save the Children.

o      #2—Environmental Sustainability Index by Yale University/Columbia University.

o      #3—Worldwide Quality of Life Index by the Economist.

About ten percent of Norwegians are immigrants from 200 countries, accounting for more than half of the country’s population growth. There are various internet portals on how to immigrate to Norway.

Their foreign aid is cunning. They don’t just give money away to needy nations. They have tended to invest in the disadvantaged, but even developed areas, in a manner which might utilize local brainpower to create joint efforts, thus linking that country to future investments and trade agreements.

With all the above, why isn’t Norway #1 as the best place to live?  Too cold, for sure, and their cost of living is quite high. Yet, opportunities abound and I can highly recommend trying Norway first because they seek immigrants (not as much today as in the past with some welfare problems and Muslim unrest), while the U.S. is not as accommodating.

My latest trip to Norway last year was as expected, but a tad surprising.  Expected because it was cold, in November, but surprising because at just about every block on their main street, Karl Johans Gate, there was a beggar.  I did, though, have my best dinner on my Fall 2010 around the world adventure, Julius Fritzner in the Grand Hotel Oslo, where I stayed.  That's Patrick O'Toole to the right, the chef, and his specialty, elk.  He is from Minnesota.  Watch out for the taxi ride from the airport to town, for I paid around $150 each way.  Everything is so, so expensive here.


THE TWO BEST PLACES IN THE WORLD TO COME.

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The Dow Jones Industrials shot up 148 today to 12,040, the first closing above 12000 since June of 2008.  The U.S. stock market is hot because the world is in general disarray, and America appears to be the only safe investment haven, although world markets all went up, many much more significantly that the Dow.  Gold increased $2/toz to $1339 and the NYMEX oil is up to $91/ barrel, but the Brent Spot for March is $102/barrel.  However, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange price of petroleum for December 2019 is only $101/barrel.

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Tropical Cyclone Yasi is at 145 MPH, and will tomorrow devastate anything between Cairns and Townsville.  Gusts will almost approach 200 MPH and could destroy cyclone proof homes.  THIS COULD WELL BE THE MOST POWERFUL STORM TO EVER STRIKE AUSTRALIA!!!

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