Wednesday is sci-tech day, but let me start with the fact that, today, November 11, is Veterans Day.
- November 11 was made a federal holiday from 1938, and was called Armistice Day, dedicated to the cause of World Peace and to honor World War 1 veterans.
- Congress in 1954 amended the act to call November 11 Veterans Day, broadening the scope to honor American veterans of all wars.
- If November 11 falls on a Saturday, the holiday is observed on Friday, and when on Sunday, you will have a Monday holiday.
There is a distinction about Veterans Day and Memorial Day, which is also a Federal holiday, observed on the last Monday in May. Veterans day honors all living and past U.S. military veterans, while Memorial Day specifically honors military personnel who died while serving.- While federal government offices, courts, post offices and most banks are closed on these two days, most retail stores, restaurants and private businesses operate on regular hours. School closures depend on the policy of local districts.
Today, there will be ceremonies (like wreath-laying at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier at the Arlington National Cemetery, where President Donald Trump praised Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth for his wonderful work enforcing freedom), parades, observing a moment of silence at 11AM, visiting a VA hospital and flying the American flag. Stores will feature Veteran's Day discounts.
As you know, the U.S. House of Representative yesterday voted to send Hegseth's impeachment legislative to the Judiciary Committee, essentially killing this effort, brought up by Republican Rep. Thomas Massie. Ah, but next year? Kalshi places the odds for impeachment at 71% by 1July2027. Octagon shows these numbers to the left.
Actually, not being impeached by this lame duck session was good for Democrats, for Republicans could have found a way to find a replacement more to Trump's liking. If impeached next year, Democrats will stand in the way of just another yes sir candidate. Frankly, Hegseth was just a scapegoat for the Iran war. This was Trump's doing. Hegseth had victories in Venezuela and against drug cartels.
Okay, so first was the promotion of Stephen Miller to Trump's Chief of Staff. Then came the action of the next Republican House, voting Jim Jordan as their incoming minority leader. Both are fiercely protective of Trump and difficult people. Next, White House counsel Will Scharf issued a warning letter, sent Monday, but made public today, to incoming House Oversight Committee Chairman Robert Garcia, indicating that threats to executive branch officials designed to deter them from public service, or process designed merely to abuse or instill fear in the recipient my cross the line into blatant criminality. Garcia said in response to the letter that “it appears Donald Trump has something to hide” and stressed that Congress’ investigative powers do not need the “permission of the White House.”
Both the Mississippi and Alaska Senate races are in the process of being finalized. To repeat something I've been saying since November 4, betting sources have consistently placed both Democrats at around 98-99% odds of winning.
- This morning, Polymarket had Mississippi Democrat Scott Colom at 99.6%, and Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith still at 1%. The counting today could seal the door.
- Also this morning, Polymarket had Alaska Democrat Mary Peltola at 99%, and incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan at 1%.
- On side bet, Peltola's victory margin.
- 3-6% 66%
- 0-3% 23%.
Candidate for U.S. senator Mary Peltola (D) now significantly leads not just her main GOP opponent, Sen. Dan Sullivan, but both Sullivan candidates combined in Alaska’s high-stakes U.S. Senate race. Peltola’s count reached 118,926 — 49% of the total votes — compared to 114,676 for Dan Sullivan (R) and 4,027 for retired teacher turned Republican candidate Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., according to the latest AP counts. The tallies show Peltola leading the GOP’s favored candidate by over 4,000 votes and both Sullivans combined by 223 votes. Tens of thousands of ballots are still to be counted, with Peltola's lead continuing to widen.
In other words, if Democrats win those Senate seats, there will be 56 Democrats and 44 Republicans in the U.S. Senate, a 12-vote margin. Whether it's Senator Chuck Schumer or anyone else (Polymarket has Schumer at 87% and Chris Van Hollen at 10%), the key to passing anything in the 120th Congress will be getting 9 Republicans to help overcome Trump vetoes. Incidentally, Polymarket also has Democrats continuing to run the Senate after the 2028 election, 88% to 13%.
NBC News currently has the House tally at 259 Democrats and 176 Republicans. Or an 83-seat margin. My guess is 260 Democrats and 175 Republicans.
There are still 12 undecided seats, with 254 Democrats and 169 Republicans confirmed.- Why do I say 260 Democrats? Looking at those 12 races, I think at least half will be won by Democrats. Which means, maybe 261 Democrats.
- Won't matter much to incoming House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries. An 83 or 87 seat cushion will both be wonderful. Speaker Mike Johnson had around a 4-seat margin, and sometimes fewer for various reasons.
Every so often, on Wednesdays, I summarize the best from Energy Matters, soundbite summaries of energy news from the American Energy Society.
- I find this first statement incredible. But, apparently, it must be true:
For the first time in industrial history, from 1:00 to 4:00 EST on October 18, 2026, solar was the main source of electricity generation in the US, beating out all other sources — natural gas, nuclear, coal and wind. Of course, solar provides zero power at night, but it is still a notable moment because it highlights the rapid increase in solar generation in America.
- From China:
- Hybrid green methanol and wind: The 169-meter transport ship Spirit of Mobile, built in Wuhan, runs on a combination of methanol fuel and six wind-harnessing turbines.
- Green methanol: Guangzhou Port fueled the shipping carrier Guang Rong with 2,300 metric tons of methanol before its voyage to Europe. Guangzhou is the first port in the world to refuel container ships, bulk carriers, and vehicle carriers with green methanol.
- Green hydrogen and ammonia: The Songyuan project has added an additional 400,000 metric tons of annual green ammonia capacity, bringing the total to 600,000 tons. These chemicals are primarily used as a lower-emission source to manufacture fertilizers and fuel for heavy transport.
- China has built more high-voltage transmission lines in the last 15 years than the US has built in all of its history.
The US government wants more trucks and planes to run on "biomass-based diesel" (like Canola oil) instead of petroleum. To make this happen, the IRS is offering a tax break called the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit. Fuel companies get a bigger credit if the feedstock they use—such as soybean oil or canola oil—is deemed "cleaner." The government measures this by giving each a "carbon intensity score." Even though both oils make effective fuel, US regulators scored soybean oil as more environmentally friendly than canola oil. It really isn't, but biofuel factories using soybean oil get a $0.55 per gallon tax credit, while those using canola oil only get $0.20 to $0.22. This gives soybeans an artificial $0.33 to $0.35 per gallon head start.
"Crack spread" (noun), def: The price difference between a barrel of raw crude oil and the refined petroleum products (diesel, jet fuel, gasoline, etc); analogous to the spread between the price of flour and a loaf of bread. Synonym: profit margin. US refineries typically aim for a benchmark "3-2-1 crack spread" ratio:• 3 barrels of crude oil go in• 2 barrels of gasoline come out• 1 barrel of distillate (diesel, jet fuel, or heating oil) comes out
- Countries that produced the most liquified natural gas (LNG) in 2025:
- United States (95 million tons per annum, MTPA)
- Australia (88 MTPA)
- Qatar (77 MTPA)*
- Malaysia (32 MTPA)
- Russia (30 MTPA)
Small Modular Reactors (SMR) generate about 300 MWe, far less than traditional nuclear reactors at 1,000 - 1,400 MWe. However, their compact, modular design enables transport and deployment and far cheaper to build. Countries building the most SMRs, by total number of sitting activities:- US - 28
- Canada - 9
- UK - 7
- Russia - 5
- France, Poland, Finland, China - 4 (tie)
 |
|
AES trendspotting insight: the energy and climate issues that had an impact in the 2026 election, in order of influence:
Data centers (especially in rural regions in swing/purple states like Chesapeake, VA)
Inflation (gasoline and utility bills)
Oil and gas production (only Democrat candidates that supported production in energy producting states like Colorado or New Mexico)
Climate change/regulations (hyper-localized only, like "water" in the Salt Lake City district or in Iowa)
Right now, 86 GW of data center capacity is under construction across the US—equivalent to the power demand of the Texas grid. Of that, only 22.5 GW is at least 75% complete. Many unfinished projects are in Ohio, Virginia, and Texas, states that elected or currently have Democratic governors and are considering data center moratoriums. There’s about 2 GW of off-grid power generation currently powering data centers across the US. An additional 90 GW has been announced/planned. Hyperscalers are paying a premium for off-grid power so they can bring data centers online faster. Existing data centers have raised average US wholesale power prices by 7%.
- The US loses about 350,000 acres of forest land per year; for comparison, that is about one football field of forest every two minutes.
- There are about 16,000 working satellites that are circling Earth.
- The cost of the US/Iran war is about $1,000 per US household. Gasoline and diesel prices in the US are $1.37 and $2.60 higher per gallon, respectively, than they would have been without the war.
|
|
There is a lot of focus on the electrification of everything as the main pathway to lower emissions. But right now, electricity only powers about one-quarter of the world (and about half of that electricity comes from fossil-based sources of energy like oil, gas, and coal). The other three-quarters runs on liquid and solid fuels like oil, gases, coal, and wood (aka "chemical fuels")- Rather than try to fix the entire system at once, it might be more prudent to start with the "easiest" chemical fuels to replace first, like:
Medium-duty delivery trucks: Neighborhood delivery vans (like those used by Amazon or UPS) drive predictable, shorter routes and return to a central hub every night, a perfect candidate for electrification.Home heating (heat pumps): Burning natural gas or oil to keep a house warm during winter uses up an enormous amount of chemical fuel. Modern electric heat pumps are incredibly efficient at moving warmth into a house without burning anything.
|
|
A new report has determined that there are 14 different ways to remove carbon (CDR), and they can be grouped into three primary input-based categories:
Biogenic (bCDR) - highest potential for near-term impact
Geochemical (gCDR) - medium potential for mid-term impact
Synthetic (SCDR) - low potential for long-term impact
A five-year drought has caused groundwater depletion across the entire Colorado River Basin; however, the Upper Colorado has lost double the groundwater of the Lower Basin. This depletion is unexpected because the Upper Basin is replenished with direct snowmelt. Depletion of groundwater in the Upper Basin diminishes the streamflow for the entire river system and downstream reservoirs.- Spotlight on recycling and the circular economy:
About 20% of U.S. aluminum is recycled, while the remaining 80% goes to landfills.
Recycling aluminum requires 5% of the energy needed to manufacture raw metal.
Recycling plants successfully separate and save 89% of the aluminum they receive, losing 11% to impurities.
When Connecticut doubled its aluminum can deposit from $.05 to $.10, New York can recycling decreased 25% but Connecticut recycled more cans than were sold in the state.
I can go on and on, but will stop here. Probably already lost 90% of viewers.
To close, not only is today Veterans Day, it is also National Sundae Day.
-
No comments:
Post a Comment