THE FUTURE OF SOLAR ENERGY

Today, October 7, marks the third anniversary of the date the Hamas invaded Israel, killing 1200 and taking 251 hostage.  

• All living hostages have been released and the remains of the last person was recovered earlier this year.
• Israel still bombs the Gaza Strip, almost on a daily basis.
• At least 77,271 have been killed on the Hamas side, while more than 2000 Israelis and other foreign nationals have died.
• Gaza is now a tent city.

Earlier this week I read an article from the local paper with the headline:  New Solar Technology Could Help U.S. Catch China.

• China controls 80% of the solar panel market today.
• Companies in the U.S.are developing a new kind of solar panel that could generate 25% more energy than today.

• 
  Called tandem solar, the technology involves adding second and third layers of material to convert more of the sun's radiance into electricity.
• Mind you, this system still costs at least three times more than conventional devices with one layer of silicon.  Plus, the sun only shines a limited hours/day, with problems like clouds.

• 
  No secrets in this technology, for companies and countries are largely sharing this development.
• So I asked Google AI:  What are the odds of tandem PV being developed....and when will this happen?

• 
  The development of tandem solar panels is no longer a matter of "if," but "when." The odds that tandem solar panels will be fully developed and mass-commercialized are virtually 100%, as the industry has already transitioned from the laboratory to early commercial shipments. Major global manufacturers agree that tandem technology will inevitably replace standard single-junction silicon. [1, 2]
• Amazingly enough, the when....as early as next year, with expansion to the mass residential market by the early 2030s.

With that piece of good news, as Wednesday is usually sci-tech day for this blog site, I further asked Google AI:  What is the future of solar energy?

Solar energy will dominate global power generation by 2035, driven by plunging manufacturing costs and massive demand from artificial intelligence infrastructure. [1]

• Terrestrial Cost Reductions: Solar panel prices are expected to drop another 30% by 2035, allowing photovoltaics to consistently outcompete coal and natural gas.
Space-Based Solar Innovations.
• 
  Project Suncatcher: Google is exploring orbital solar infrastructure to power future space-based AI data centers.
• Productivity Boost: A solar panel in the correct orbit can generate up to eight times as much power as it would on Earth and produce energy almost continuously without needing massive battery arrays. [1, 2]

My second question for Google AI:  Is solar energy the cheapest source of electricity today?

✅ Yes, solar energy is now the cheapest source of new electricity generation in history across most of the world. [1, 2]

Here is what Google AI said, comparing solar energy with wind energy.

📉 Wind vs. Solar Costs

Wind and utility-scale solar are very close in cost, but which one is cheaper depends heavily on the region and specific project type. [1]

According to industry cost analyses like the Lazard Levelized Cost of Energy Report, unsubsidized wind and solar generally overlap significantly:

Utility-Scale Solar: Ranges roughly from $38 to $78 per megawatt-hour (MWh).
Onshore Wind: Ranges roughly from $37 to $86 per megawatt-hour (MWh). [1]

📊 Key Cost Drivers

☀️ Solar: Capital costs for photovoltaic panels have dropped dramatically, making solar cheaper in sun-rich regions.
💨 Wind: Onshore turbines often capture a higher capacity factor in windy corridors, making wind cheaper where strong, consistent winds blow.
🔋 Storage Needs: Both require expensive battery or backup systems to provide continuous 24/7 power, which adds to the real-world cost. [1, 2]

Finally, asked Google AI to compare the relative cost of generating electricity from solar, hydro, coal and nuclear.

The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for new utility-scale solar is generally the cheapest option ($38–$78/MWh), followed by coal ($71–$173/MWh), while new nuclear power remains the most expensive upfront and per megawatt-hour ($141–$220/MWh). [1]

Cost Breakdown per Megawatt-Hour (MWh)

According to recent industry data from Lazard, the average cost ranges for new, unsubsidized generation facilities are:

Solar Energy: $38 to $78 per MWh for utility-scale photovoltaic solar, making it one of the most affordable new generation sources.
Hydropower: Varies widely by region and facility age, but established large-scale hydro typically offers low operating costs and competitive long-term baseload pricing, though new large dams require massive capital investment.

Coal: $71 to $173 per MWh for new plants, though fully depreciated or existing coal plants can sometimes operate cheaper in the short term depending on local fuel prices ($31–$114/MWh).
Nuclear Power: $141 to $220 per MWh for new facilities, driven primarily by massive initial capital costs, complex regulatory hurdles, and long construction timelines. [1, 2, 3, 4]

Key Economic Factors

Upfront vs. Operating Costs: Solar panels have minimal fuel and operating costs after installation, whereas nuclear and coal incur ongoing fuel and maintenance costs. Nuclear requires enormous initial capital investments. [1]
Reliability and System Costs: Direct comparisons using standard LCOE can be misleading because solar is intermittent (needing sunlight). Factoring in grid reliability, transmission upgrades, and battery storage increases the total system cost of running a purely solar grid compared to continuous, 24/7 baseload power from nuclear or hydro. [1, 2]

So the above analysis shows that cost wise, nuclear power cannot compete today with solar and coal.  Here is another graphic comparison from Wikipedia:

However, keep in mind that electricity is only one form of energy. And solar energy only ranks #5 in generating electricity.  From Google AI:

Energy Use for Electricity

Primary Energy Share: According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), roughly one-third (about 32%) of all primary energy consumed nationally is used by power plants to produce electricity. [1]
Conversion Losses: More than 60% of the thermal energy put into traditional power plants is lost as waste heat during the conversion process before it ever reaches homes or businesses. [1]
Final Sectors: The remaining primary energy is used directly in other sectors, primarily transportation (about 37%) and direct industrial uses (about 35%), with homes and commercial buildings consuming the rest. [1]

Some day I will look closer at how the world is doing developing renewable energy for transportation.  Something that is seriously lagging.  Ground transport is beginning to be introduced with electric vehicles, but fuel cells could also make a difference, and, in the long term, hydrogen.  We have yet to do much about air travel, where more than 99% of the fuel comes from the refinement of crude oil.  It was 16 years ago when I published a paper in the Huffington Post entitled The Future of Sustainable Aviation.

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