WHY THE PANDEMIC IS NOT QUICKLY GOING AWAY

         From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

          DAY  USA  WORLD    Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9     1093     4732         1185        246       82

July    22      1205     7128         1293      1120     572

Aug    12      1504     6556        1242        835     130

Sept     9      1208      6222       1136       1168       82

Oct     21      1225      6849         571        703       85

Nov    25       2304    12025        620        518      118

Dec    30       3880    14748       1224       299      465

Jan     14       4142    15512       1151        189     712

Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398

Mar      2       1989     9490        1726       110      194

April     6        906    11787         4211       631       37

May     4        853     13667        3025      3786     59 

June    1        287    10637         2346      3205      95

 July    7         251      8440        1595        817      411

Aug     4         656    10120        1118        532      423 

Sept   22      2228      9326          839       279     124

Oct      6       2102      8255          543       315       59

Nov    3        1436      7830         186        458       23

Dec     1       1633      8475          266        477       28

Jan     7        2025      6729         148         285     140

Feb     2        2990   12012          946        991      175

Mar     2        1778     7756          335         173       28 

Apr     1          439      4056         290          52       12

May    5          225      2404         151            ?        64

June    2          216      1413         130          10       31

July    6          316      1627         335           35       12 

Aug    4           311       2138         258          70         ?

         11          290       1994         173          49         ?

         17          461       2502         246          72         ?

Summary:

• This pandemic seems to be getting worse.
• Highest number of new cases yesterday (new cases/million population in parentheses):
• #1      South Korea  180,652  (3517)
• #2      Japan  178,286 (1419)
• #3      USA  87,108 (260)
• #4      Germany  58,685 (696)
• #29    Thailand  2,461 (35)
• #47    Singapore  3,762 (632)
• #68    UAE (Dubai)  721 (71)
• Highest new deaths/million population:
• #1      Marshall Islands  50
• #2      Micronesia  17
• #3      Hungary  12
• #4      New Zealand  3.2
• #7      Japan  2.3
• #10    Germany  2.2
• #21    USA  1.4
• #22    Taiwan  1.3
• #31    South Korea  0.8
• #48    Thailand  0.4
• #49    Singapore  0.3
• #52    UAE  0.1

Interesting that South Korea had more than double the number of new cases than the USA yesterday, yet had only about half the rate of deaths.

More than two years ago, I saw this article, showing that asymptomatic cases could be as high as 85%.  This was before the advent of mass vaccinations.

Why are certain locations having very high infection rates?  Time magazine has a rather simple explanation, citing JAMA (Journal of the American Medical Association) Network Open:

• More than half the people--56%-- who are infected with the Omicron variant are not aware of their infection.
• It underscores the fact that Omicron tends to cause relatively mild symptoms (or no symptoms at all) in VACCINATED people.
• HOWEVER, THEY ARE INNOCENTLY GOING AROUND INFECTING PEOPLE!!!

While the asymptomatic rate at one time might have been between 25% to 40%, now, with so many vaccinated people and those who are unlucky enough to get reinfected, the asymptomaticity is approaching 60%, and will continue to increase.  The downside is that, with the relaxation of masking and distancing, those who have not been infected, will almost surely catch COVID-19.

Some countries like Japan are being cautious, and China is totally paranoid.  However, most countries, even with high rates of infection, are opening up their society.  Cruise ships have largely stopped testing newly boarding passengers, but still check if you are fully vaccinated.  Why?  The death rate is approaching that of the seasonal flu, which in the past, has not upset the economy.  But infections remain a concern because of the combined effect of returning to normal policies and asymptomaticity.

While it remains uncertain when countries like South Korea and Japan will finally reduce the number of new cases, at least the death rate has remained relatively low.  Hawaii is a good example of this coming syndrome.  For the first two years of the pandemic, we were among the lowest in case and death rates.  A few months ago we became the worst state in the union.  The past few weeks have shown a gradual drop of cases and deaths.  I expect Japan and South Korea to similarly decline.

From the Ukraine War:

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