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Friday, April 10, 2020

COVID-19: Want to Invest in Some Companies?

Worldometer:

The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 210 countries and territories around the world and 2 international conveyances. The day is reset after midnight GMT+0. Sources are provided under "Latest Updates"
New deaths:

DAY     China   Italy   USA   Spain   Germany   S. Korea  WORLD

Mar 23          9  601       85      435            24               7        1631
        24         7  743     100      489            33               9        1983
        25         4  683     129      454            47               6        1987
        26         6  712       73      498            33               5        1801
        27         5  919     182      569            71               8        2782
        28         3  889     241      674            52               5        2609
        29         5  756     169      624            49               8        2706
        30         4  812     271      537            19               6        2849
        31         5  837     439      553            37               4        3661
Apr    1         7  727     589      463            83               3        3239
          2         6  760     522      709          158               4        4183
          3         4  766     716      587          123               5        3822
          4         4  681     769      546            55               3        4755
          5         3  525     909      471          106               6        3595
          6         2  636     874      528            78               3        4414
          7         ?  604   1371      556            95               6        6291
          8         2  542   1400      628          176               8        5431
          9         2  610   1286      446            82               4        3779
        10         1  570   1739      523          121               4        6506

Summary:
  • Good Friday was not good for Planet Earth.
    • World new deaths jumped from 3779 to 6506
    • The U.S. suffered its worst new deaths day ever, leaping to 1739, but the combined total of the UK and France was even higher
    • The number of new cases in the USA just about equaled the new cases of the next six countries, combined, but part of this is because we are doing more testing
  • Japan is still not really reporting, something troublesome.
  • You've got to wonder if India, Russia, China and Iran are truly reporting what is happening in their countries.
From Europe are some disturbing news that ventilators are perhaps causing more harm than good.  Avoid use by still providing oxygen less traumatically and more cheaply.  Also, there is a wide range of doubts about the accuracy of all those COVID-19 tests, including the recent Abbot Labs 15-minute entry.  There are too many false positives, false negatives and the growing percentage of probable asymptomatic cases, that the field is currently in a quandary.  The economy will not be able to safely recover without confidence in a standard test.

President Donald Trump keeps repeating that the USA leads the world in testing, and in total number of tests we are, but he is exaggerating the truth, for:
  • in tests per capita, Italy has twice that of the U.S.
  • in tests per confirmed case, we are at 5.46, Taiwan is 115, South Korea 48, India 25, Japan 15.
As much as this pandemic has been financially painful, there are some out there looking for investment opportunities related to COVID-19.  I'm about the last person you would want to ask for advice, but I can report on what others are saying.  

Vaccines are a year away, but testing is today, so let us look closely at Abbott Laboratories (ABT) because they recently came out with a 15-minute test process.  Here is their stock price timeline:

2019  Jan        2    86.95

                     22    91.86

         Oct      10    80.14

2020 March 10     80.88

                    17     79.49   About the time Abbott Labs
                                            notified the world about
                                            their 15-min test

                    23     62.82   Haven't had time to find out why this drop
                    24     69.69   Or why this jump
                    25     70.75
                    26     75.81    Clearly, the IN group got notified and
                                              began investing
                    27     74.56
                    28      Sat.      FDA announces emergency authorization  
                                              of 15-minute COVID-19 test
                    29      Sun.
 My blog site  on Sunday said:
One significant piece of good news:  the FDA just approved a coronavirus test that can give results in minutes...from the time you take it!  Abbot Labs (watch their stock value zoom up) will ship 50,000 units/day beginning this week.  It is highly portable, the size of a toaster, weighing less than seven pounds.  This is that game changer we have long been awaiting.  Today, the U.S. has done fewer than 200 tests per 100,000 (630,000 total tests).  South Korea is at 700/100,000.  These Abbot units should produce 5 million tests in April.  
                    30      79.34   Abbott Lab soars
                    31      78.91   Everybody jumped on board, causing a drop
        April      1      76.57   More so
                     2      79.44    But a quick test is attractive
                     3      79.45
                     6      82.73
                     7      81.93
                     8      84.95
                     9      86.01
                    10     86.04

You should have bought Sunday night, March 29.  I should have, too.  None of us probably did.  Next time follow those companies developing vaccines or anything important relating to COVID-19.  If anything without explanation jumps, jump in yourself.  Don't sell the house, but a few bucks for fun.  But that could be a year from now.  For now, focus on testing.

Read this article for details, but there currently are two types of testing:
  • polymerise chain reaction (suffers from 30% false negative and 80-85% accuracy), using swabs to see if you are infected
  • serologic, or antibody (your body got the infection and shows this protein marker) search, using a drop of blood, which can show if you're now immune, but is time relevant (a few weeks after you survive) and not all that accurate yet
  • quick-response antigen lateral flow assay (of just about anything, like blood, urine, sweat, etc.), developed by Canadian firm Sona Nanotech, gets results in 15 minutes at a cost of less than $50, with easy administration--looks for a biological marker, similar in principle to a pregnancy test--should now be ready
  • Bosch antigen swab test in under 2.5 hours, using their Vivalytic analysis devise--will be first available in Europe about now
  • Abbot Labs swab
The fact of the matter is that a perfect detection test has not yet appeared, while the antibody test to determine if you're safe is even further away.  Watch 21 companies.  Of these:
  • Forget: 
    • CytoDyn (CYDY), already in Phase 2 trials, but a stock which has already nearly doubled.  Invio Pharmaceuticals (INO) is doing human trials in China and South Korea, but its stock has already soared 150% this year.  
    • Moderna (MRNA) has a mRNA vaccine and is into Phase One trials, but its shares has already gained 64.6%.  
    • Novavax (NVAX) has a COVID-19 vaccine candidate and will initiate a Phase One clinical study next month.  However, its stock has already leaped 338.5%.
    • Vaxart (VXRT) is developing a room temperature oral vaccine.  However, it has already surged 393.6%.
  • Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) is credible and intriguing, already in Phase 3 clinical trials with remdesivir, which is for treatment, not a vaccine.  Stock has risen 13.2% this year.
  • GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) is a Big Pharma that has done well with flu vaccines.  They also look for buying opportunities, and made a $250 million equity investment in Vir Biotechnology, expecting to go into Phase 2 trials this year.  GSK has dropped nearly 20% this year, Vir up 124.2%.  Hmmm..going to have to put GSK on my alert list.
  • Will Johnson & Johnson (JNF) come through this time?  They are working with BARDA, each providing a billion dollars, to enter Phase One trials with a vaccine candidate.  This year down 2.6%.
  • In the longer term, Sanofi (SNY), a French company, is using its recombinant DNA platform and with Translate Bio to develop a mRNA vaccine.  But the time line is a year away.  Stock is down 10.7%.
  • Watch Takeda Pharmaceutial (TAK) of Japan.  They are into treatment, using plasma from those who have recovered from COVID-19.  Shares are down 19.3%.  Not related to Takata airbags.
Can't end the "work" week without a Trump joke:

A British doctor says: "In Britain, medicine is so advanced that we cut off a man's liver, put it in another man, and in 6 weeks, he is looking for a job."
The German doctor says: "That's nothing,
in Germany we took part of a brain, put it in another man, and in 4 weeks he is looking for a job."

The Russian doctor says: "Gentlemen, we took half a heart from a man, put it in another's chest, and in 2 weeks he is looking for a job."

The American doctor laughs: "You are all behind us. A few months ago, we took a man with no brain, no heart, and no liver and made him President.

Now, the whole country is looking for a job!"
And in an adjusted form of Peanuts:


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