CHINA: Another Pandemic?

Over the next few days I will focus on China.  Today, for example, is Chinese New Year 4718, the Year of the Rat.  On July 4 the USA will be 244 years old.  You would think that a rat year would not be auspicious, but the year of the goat (that was in 2015--repeats every twelve years) is the unluckiest Zodiac sign.  The dragon, which is the only mythical animal in the group, is the most coveted.  That is my sign, and, as I have now lived into the Year 2020, my next goal is to get into 2024, the next Year of the Dragon.

I pretty much annually post on this special day, as for example last year and in 2018.  That was the year of the Dog.  Donald Trump is a Fire Dog, and according to horoscope, his health luck was supposed to be unlucky, wealth luck was to be good and this was the year not to fret over minor things.  Melania is also a dog, and there was worry about the marriage of two dogs.

A few days ago over dinner talk, I somewhat pooh-poohed over-concern about the Chinese coronavirus.  At that point only four had actually died, and the common flu kills between 250,000 and 500,000 annually.

I pointed out my Huffington Post article of nine years ago entitled A Pandemic Worse than the Swine Flu, and I repeat a portion of it here:

1. The regular flu kills one in a thousand, while the swine flu seems closer to one in a hundred. That previous avian flu of a decade ago has a 60% mortality rate, but it is not all that contagious. The fear is that the swine flu will morph into a more dangerous form. The potential of this happening is very low, and, in any case, it is appearing that all 50 or so variations might turn out to be treatable with one vaccine. So, certainly, continue the vigilance and spend my tax dollars to develop a common vaccine, but don’t close down countries and schools, and, by the way, tourists can safely return to Mexico and Hawaii.

2. The numbers are embarrassingly obvious. Since the so-called epidemic was announced only a little more than a month ago, we have had about 500 cases and 3 deaths a day. I wouldn’t want to be one of those statistics, but consider that a million people daily contract some form of flu and at least a thousand die, every day, usually from complications (heart, pneumonia, etc.). This terrifying swine flu is thus hardly detectable noise. I might further add that traffic fatalities number 3000/day, but we drive on.

Why, then, has the world, epitomized by the World Health Organization (which can best be appreciated if you know the internal workings of the United Nations), gone bonkers over the swine flu? I would like to speculate on the reason. I think it has to do with our political way of life influenced by the world wide web (WWW), as sensitized by the terroristic act of September 11, 2001. Add the palpable need to cover your rear.

There were a couple more paragraphs, but let me close with one more:

Swine flu, though, conjures dark images of your mortality. The communications industry, like CNN, saturates air time on such issues because they know people will watch. The WWW picks it up and decision-makers are hopelessly influenced. The cascading circle of information gains a life of its own. The truth is that the truly dangerous virus is not the swine flu, but the medium itself. The pandemic is this resultant overreaction.

Of course, in the totality of things, it's better to overreact than be decimated by what might have been prevented with smart decision-making.

Historically, there was the 1918 flu pandemic, which might have sickened a third of the world population, killing up to 50 million.  The global population was then around 2 billion, compared to 7.6 billion today, so a proportional comparison would mean something closer to 200 million deaths today.

Some blame World War I for the crisis, for people in Europe were weakened and in stress, and the global spread was caused by soldiers returning home.  Just in the U.S. 675,000 Americans died, and the national average life expectancy dropped by 12 years.  The H1N1 virus (right) was the cause, and returned in 2009 as the Swine Flu.  But there was no equivalent epidemic.  H1N1 is endemic in pigs and birds.

The source this time is a cousin, the coronavirus, the same culprit which caused SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, in 2002-3.  There were 774 deaths in 17 countries.  I particularly remember this period because in the heat of the epidemic, a colleague at the University of Hawaii and three of his students traveling through Southeast Asia began to get sick.  They decided to return home.  While ill, they somehow snuck through the immigration checks and returned to Honolulu, only to get confirmed that they had SARS.

Thus, when you think of what is happening in China today, link back to SARS nearly two decades ago.  First, this type of ailment is not all that highly contagious.  Chances are there needs to be direct contact with the affected when they are in that transmittable stage, which is mostly in the second week of the illness.  You will not contract this coronavirus when an exposed patient has not shown symptoms.  The odds are that this epidemic will begin to wane within six months.  Saying all that, if people around the world begin to die from this currently active virus, then that will be a sign that something is different, for this virus is known to mutate.

Seventeen years ago China also reacted to SARS by building a new hospital in Beijing, and in SIX days.  This time Wuhan, the epicenter, specifically at a seafood market, has initiated construction of two, specifically to take care of coronavirus patients.  One will be ready next week.  The Ala Wai Golf Course takes a year to re-pave its parking lot.

This time the central government has also locked down Wuhan and several other nearby cities.  That is unprecedented.  Could well be because during the Chinese New Year so many travel to return to their roots.

Clearly, the government knows something we don't.  London's Imperial College, for example, speculated that up to 10,000 in China had this specific condition when the official tally on January 18 was 62 cases.  All current rumors and signs point to a fear that SARS this time will be worse, and maybe 10 times so.  However, even with 100,000 getting sick and 10,000 deaths, that would be less than 3% of expected deaths from the flu this year.  Yet, the trepidation of 1918 weighs heavy, and what if Chinese authorities are still hiding something horrendous?

Well, as terrible as might be the above, I am getting on with my life and celebrating Chinese New Year with a wide array of cuisine, which I'll report on in the days to come.  Last night I had Peking Duck, today I'll stroll into Chinatown and have, perhaps, Shanghai Soup Dumplings, and on Monday, 15 Craigside has our annual Chinese New Year lunch.

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