This is my fourth (April 24 and 27, May 5) posting on the swine flu, which seems like it has been threatening humanity for some time, but, almost surprisingly, only became an issue about a month ago. You can give the 9/11 terrorists some credit, for the world has certainly responded, and I feel a tad guilty about, perhaps, being somewhat supercilious and mildly sarcastic about this potential pandemic. But, let's face it, I have been mostly right about the overreaction and thankful about the fact that, so far, it has been mostly hype.
Here are my conclusions:
1. Are we overreacting to the swine flu, as we did to the avian flu a few years ago? YES!!! That previous dreaded H5N1 bird flu has killed 261 since 2003. In that period, more than a thousand succumbed to falling coconuts. Okay, that might have been said in some jest, although there are some unverified estimates about coconut deaths. Consider also that 3,000 people die each DAY in vehicular accidents.
2. Since a month ago, nearly 9000 have contracted the H1N1 swine flu and up to 80 have died. In that same period, probably 30 million caught some form of flu and more than 40,000 died. Nuff said.
3. While Mexico has been mostly blamed for the current nano-pandemic, I suspect some versions of H1N1 are endemic in any population (for this is essentially the same variety that killed 50-100 million in the 1918-19 period). It was probably here in Hawaii last year, and every year before that, and no bothered to confirm. We are mostly resistant to the current form, but the fear (which is largely unfounded, as it was for that avian flu) is for the appearance of a mutant form later this year. However, all things considered, if you are nailed by a flu virus, hope that it is not the swine type, for the mortality rate could well be ten times higher compared to the "common" influenza.
4. It's good for government to be prepared, for education and concern should be stressed. However, closing down countries and schools are hardly necessary.
Here are the statistics:
1. Every year, worldwide, there are tens of millions of flu cases. No one knows, for most do not consult a doctor. If only one percent of the population per year contracts the flu, that is at least 60 million cases, and I know for certain (just observation, of course) that more than one percent of my friends catch the flu each year. I'd go so far as to say that at least 10% do. In fact, more. Very few actually bother with a physician. Say this 10% figure is extended to the world, then we are talking 600 million flu cases/year. That is in the range of nearly 2 million new flu cases each DAY.
2. The number 36,000 flu related deaths/year is tossed around in the USA, from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention. For the world, it is said that there are up to 500,000 flu deaths/year in a normal year. Mortality is an amorphous figure, for rarely does anyone just die from the flu. Complications, whether it is pneumonia or heart disease, complicate the picture.
3. My best guess is that a million people catch the flu (or have flu-like symptoms) each day, worldwide. Of this group, a bit more than one tenth of one percent, or 1500, will die/day, or slightly more than 500,000 flu deaths/year.
4. The 1918 Spanish Flu was an avian H1N1, with swine taints. The current swine flu is also H1N1. Influenza A is also bandied about, but that is just more specification. The avian flu we were really worried about a few years ago was of the H5N1 variety.
5. The current swine flue has about a 1% mortality rate. But, remember, that H5N1 avian flu is said to have a kill rate of 60%. Thankfully, it is not easy to be infected and infect others with this strain. However, about a third of the world population caught the 1918 Spanish flu (avian H1N1), and almost 100 million died (2% rate, if true...maybe 50 million deaths might have also have been closer to the true count, which would bring the rate down to the present 1% seen in this swine flu). Today, with air travel and nearly 4 times more people, 200 million cases would not be unexpected for a similar contagion. However, I wouldn't be too worried about this swine flu, nor the H5N1 avian flu
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The Dow Jones Industrials surged almost 3%, up 235 to 8504. However, there is concern about the viability of Fannie and Freddie, plus GM, quoting CEO Fritz Henderson today as probable, regarding bankruptcy. World markets almost all increased, but Japan's Nikkei dropped 2.44%. Gold sunk $13/toz to $919 and crude almost reached $60/barrel (see right). So much for the prediction last week by yet another speculator that oil would soon drop to $50/barrel. The trends are performing nicely: bottoming out of the recession should result in higher stock prices, lower gold futures and increasing energy costs.
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