I thought this was a holiday, but, the Federal government is at work and Wall Street is alive and well, with a surging Dow Jones Industrials, which jumped 305 to 9625, the highest close in more than a month. Crude oil leaped $6 to just under $70/barrel on production cuts by Saudi Arabia. Gold is up $37/toz to $764.
First of all, on October 15 I predicted that Obama will become our next president. Well, I will say it again: BARACK OBAMA WILL BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE USA. Certainly more people will vote today than, perhaps, ever before. That’s good for America and our democratic way of life. For the first time I know, the people –you and I—are feeling that we are now part of the process.
I’m watching CNN and jumping around the relevant channels, actually tracking how the elections are coming along. I started at 7AM, and plan to do this all day and night. This has never ever happened before. This is like the longest home “tailgate” party I’ve ever had, with all the imbibibles.
Here is the current state of the world and my latest predictions:
1. The stocks I bought can be quantified, so here are the cold facts (remember, they were all sort of purchased at the beginning of this month):
First of all, on October 15 I predicted that Obama will become our next president. Well, I will say it again: BARACK OBAMA WILL BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE USA. Certainly more people will vote today than, perhaps, ever before. That’s good for America and our democratic way of life. For the first time I know, the people –you and I—are feeling that we are now part of the process.
I’m watching CNN and jumping around the relevant channels, actually tracking how the elections are coming along. I started at 7AM, and plan to do this all day and night. This has never ever happened before. This is like the longest home “tailgate” party I’ve ever had, with all the imbibibles.
Here is the current state of the world and my latest predictions:
1. The stocks I bought can be quantified, so here are the cold facts (remember, they were all sort of purchased at the beginning of this month):
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Purchased....Today... % Increase
a. Microsoft....................$23.64.....$23.50
b. General Electric..........$19.85.....$20.77
c. Lockheed Martin.........$84.95.....$85.91
d. Boeing.......................$51.90.....$53.62
e. Ultra Basic Materials....$21.15.....$23.50
AVERAGE......................$40.30.....$41.46.....+2.3%
Good start.
2. The price of oil will storm past $100/barrel in 2009. Will it hit $200 in three to five years? If the world economy quickly recovers, yes. However, there is a self-checking mechanism at play here, for as oil jumps, the economy will be negatively affected, and demand should drop. Thus, it is possible that the only way oil can reach $200/bbl is for some significant political event to occur. Under any circumstance, Hawaii will remain in terrible shape because if the recession continues, the tourist rate will continue to drop, and tourism is the dominant revenue source for the state. If general recovery occurs at the international level, the price of oil will skyrocket again, jet fuel will become very expensive and only the rich will afford a trip to Hawaii. Easing of visa requirements will enhance South Korean travel, and if the same can occur for China, that would minimize the hardship. This terrible state of affairs will continue for a decade and longer. The quicker some alternative can be developed for jet fuel, the greater will be the hope for the state by 2020. Will the sustainable hydrogen dirigible be this answer?
3. How bad is the American economy? Not good, but better than most of the world. The following from data available today:
Country........% year to date drop of global stock markets
UK...............31
USA (S&P)...34
France.........37
Germany......38
Japan..........44
Singapore....45
(Russia........70--sketchy data)
China..........75
4. Investments in renewable energy will depend on the cost of petroleum and the reality of global warming. If the price of oil returns to $100/bbl and higher, significant expansion will occur. If oil drops closer to $50/bbl, then most of the mega projects will be cancelled. In any case, because Congress re-validated the tax breaks just before adjourning, wind power will boom, the electrical delivery systems will be upgraded and plug-in electric cars will gain in prominence. In the longer term, as ethanol will decline, biofuels will prove to be non-competitive and hydrogen will remain too expensive, biomethanol (methanol from the gasification and catalysis of biomass) will begin to take over (in a decade), largely dependent on the development of a direct methanol fuel cell for vehicular applications. Aviation will remain in jeopardy for decades due to the continuing increase in jet fuel prices. Airlines will consolidate, as will American automobile companies.
a. Microsoft....................$23.64.....$23.50
b. General Electric..........$19.85.....$20.77
c. Lockheed Martin.........$84.95.....$85.91
d. Boeing.......................$51.90.....$53.62
e. Ultra Basic Materials....$21.15.....$23.50
AVERAGE......................$40.30.....$41.46.....+2.3%
Good start.
2. The price of oil will storm past $100/barrel in 2009. Will it hit $200 in three to five years? If the world economy quickly recovers, yes. However, there is a self-checking mechanism at play here, for as oil jumps, the economy will be negatively affected, and demand should drop. Thus, it is possible that the only way oil can reach $200/bbl is for some significant political event to occur. Under any circumstance, Hawaii will remain in terrible shape because if the recession continues, the tourist rate will continue to drop, and tourism is the dominant revenue source for the state. If general recovery occurs at the international level, the price of oil will skyrocket again, jet fuel will become very expensive and only the rich will afford a trip to Hawaii. Easing of visa requirements will enhance South Korean travel, and if the same can occur for China, that would minimize the hardship. This terrible state of affairs will continue for a decade and longer. The quicker some alternative can be developed for jet fuel, the greater will be the hope for the state by 2020. Will the sustainable hydrogen dirigible be this answer?
3. How bad is the American economy? Not good, but better than most of the world. The following from data available today:
Country........% year to date drop of global stock markets
UK...............31
USA (S&P)...34
France.........37
Germany......38
Japan..........44
Singapore....45
(Russia........70--sketchy data)
China..........75
4. Investments in renewable energy will depend on the cost of petroleum and the reality of global warming. If the price of oil returns to $100/bbl and higher, significant expansion will occur. If oil drops closer to $50/bbl, then most of the mega projects will be cancelled. In any case, because Congress re-validated the tax breaks just before adjourning, wind power will boom, the electrical delivery systems will be upgraded and plug-in electric cars will gain in prominence. In the longer term, as ethanol will decline, biofuels will prove to be non-competitive and hydrogen will remain too expensive, biomethanol (methanol from the gasification and catalysis of biomass) will begin to take over (in a decade), largely dependent on the development of a direct methanol fuel cell for vehicular applications. Aviation will remain in jeopardy for decades due to the continuing increase in jet fuel prices. Airlines will consolidate, as will American automobile companies.
5. If, against all odds, global warming is proven to be fallacious, then coal and oil shale will become bonanzas, for we are the Saudi Arabia of these fossil fuels. Windpower should continue to expand, but other solar and biofuel options will only serve a transitional role to offset high oil prices.
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Tropical Storm:Polo is continuing to move west-northwest, but will soon begin to move mostly west. Still with 40 MPH winds, it will dissipate in four days and later pass south of the Big Island as a remnant.
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Tropical Storm:Polo is continuing to move west-northwest, but will soon begin to move mostly west. Still with 40 MPH winds, it will dissipate in four days and later pass south of the Big Island as a remnant.
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