WE NEED TO WORK TOGETHER, NOW

I today celebrate, if you can call it that, my 400th posting.  Some weeks ago I submitted to the Honolulu Advertiser a rather gloomy outlook for Hawaii's future, but only because I thought our leaders were wasting their time quibbling over furloughs, layoffs and our present economic condition, when they should really be, hand in hand, preparing for our longer term future.  I guess this contribution did not meet their standards because they just ignored it.  Here, then, is Mr. Optimism, me, declaring that Hawaii is in real trouble:

WE NEED TO WORK TOGETHER, NOW

 

The Governor, State Legislature, Unions and people of Hawaii are wrestling with a difficult, but relatively manini, crisis. The true crunch will come in five to ten years.

 

I've had this fear for the longest time, and everything I've seen only reinforces my sense, that someday soon the price of oil will skyrocket past $150/barrel, making jet fuel so expensive that people will stop coming to Hawaii, resulting in our economy going into depression for a long time to come.

 

Tourism dominates our revenue stream, and given a decade at most, it is too late to significantly diversify our economy or adjust to only elite travelers. We thus only have two options:  hope that a reasonably competitive sustainable biofuel will suddenly be made available to replace jet fuel, or a different kind of aircraft run on something like hydrogen can be commercialized to continue shuttling tourists to Hawaii.

 

Let me ignore renewable electricity and sustainable ground transport, for these are already being lethargically considered by decision-makers and the utilities.  At least they are doing something, and that is more than can be expected.

 

Returning to the issue at hand, that impending mega depression for Hawaii, is it hopeless to initiate a program now? Probably, but giving up cannot be an option. Hawaii is clearly too small to solve this problem alone, so we need all the help we can get.

 

Fortunately enough, we are at the pinnacle of political strength today with Barack Obama as our President and Senator Daniel Inouye as chairman of the Appropriations Committee. We also have a key partner, our military, for 75% of their energy cost is oil, and jet fuel is a major concern.

 

Regarding a substitute for jet fuel, if my addition is correct, I have read where the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency intends to award SAIC, General Atomics and Logos something on the order of $100 million to develop jet fuel from algae. A like amount of funding should come from the U.S. Department of Energy to annually fund basic research and development, but that remains a dream.

 

Here is the reality.  My trusted colleagues tell me that it will cost at least $150/barrel ($3.57/gallon) to produce jet fuel from algae, that this will take ten years, and only if we significantly enhance research support. While there are dozens of new start-ups in this field, some supported by oil companies, with estimates as low as their being able to produce biofuel substitutes for only $1/gallon, I pray they can meet their expectations.  Yet, after a third of a century dealing with this subject, I would have to side with the scientific experts predicting bio-production costs way beyond $3/gallon.

 

What then about replacing the current Boeings and Airbuses? Well, I actually joined the staff of Senator Spark Matsunaga thirty years ago primarily to see if a hydrogen economy could be initiated. We were already aware then that a sustainable hydrogen jetliner was what Hawaii needed in the future, and hydrogen, because it provides the highest energy per unit weight, which can be produced from renewable energy such as wind power, geothermal energy and ocean thermal energy conversion.

 

Well, the Matsunaga Hydrogen Act became law and the National Aerospace Plane was initiated by the Department of Defense. Unfortunately, this project remains a black program and commercialization, if it is even possible, is many decades away at best. There was a mention last year that the European Union might initiate a hydrogen aviation program, but I haven't seen anything recently.

 

While there are several fanciful air systems bandied about in various publications, one in particular, the Hawaiian Hydrogen Clipper, a hydrogen-powered dirigible potentially capable of flying at 350 MPH (none of the other blimps go anywhere close to this speed), proposed by Rinaldo Brutoco, President of the World Business Academy, I think shows the most promise. In particular, he sees Hawaii as the ideal lead for this effort. (This concept is mentioned in my Huffington Post article of December 18, 2008.)

 

So what of our future? The likely scenario is that substitute jet fuel will become competitive when oil exceeds $150/barrel. But, unfortunately, then, air travel will still remain too expensive to continue our present tourist industry.

 

That leaves the Hawaiian Hydrogen Clipper. But can it become commercial in a decade? I think not, but what else do we have?

 

In the meantime, to ameliorate that predicted depression in a decade, we should also start now to diversify our economy. We can't compete on traditional high technology. We do, though, have the largest ocean around us, and I can envision next generation fisheries, marine biomass plantations, marine biotechnology industries and grazing marine industrial platforms, all powered by ocean thermal energy conversion. I just saw a video produced by Lockheed Martin suggesting a 100 MW OTEC power plant in Hawaiian waters by 2015. The total package is the Blue Revolution (see my Huffington Post article of February 16, 2009).  (Again, for those who are new to blogging and such, just click on the underlined or colored items to read about the details underscored.)

Having been part of the political process in the past, I can easily predict that our leaders will continue to be paralyzed by politics and the economy, so, to give an early edge, let me provide four solutions for their consideration (and we need all four):

 

1. Continue your semi-wonderful effort towards renewable electricity and sustainable transport options.  No, let me sound the alarm and suggest you triple your efforts here.

 

2. Do everything possible to draw major corporations and the Federal government to partner with Hawaii to develop jet fuel from algae.

 

3. Convince Senator Inouye and President Obama to provide $1 billion to develop the National Hydrogen Clipper through the Department of Defense.

 

4. Initiate the Blue Revolution.  More so, ascertain that the first grazing plantship of 1000 MW (yes, 1000 MW) be operational by 2020.  Sure, that's more than ten years away, but I'm realistic, and at this point, am only trying to shorten that predicted local depression.

What is particularly fearful about the above is that I'm known to be hopelessly optimistic.  If you agree with me on the above, or, at least feel that the scenario is scary enough that it should be discussed, PLEASE FORWARD THIS POSTING TO YOUR FAVORITE DECISION-MAKERS.  Mahalo.

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The Dow Jones Industrials will not change much today (actually went up 68 to 8916), oil is up almost a buck a barrel and gold dropped $3/toz to $948.

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That Atlantic disturbance remains puny, however, that Invest 91 southwest of Hawaii is actually moving East, and slightly North. Huh?

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IN CELEBRATION OF PEARL

 

My best friend, and wife, of almost 47 years, Pearl, just passed away, and it was both the saddest day of my life, and, surprisingly enough, still, joyfully blissful. Yes, I’m biased, but she was as beautiful on her 70^th birthday (last week) than when we first met.  She was recently sent a portfolio of photos taken at the May Hilo High School Quad reunion in Last Vegas, and, considering that she was in the oldest of four classes, it was amazing that she was the best looking Viking in the whole album.  These two are the final photos I took of her last month.  The shot above is with Yayoi, one of her favorite friends, wife of Professor Takeo Kondo of Nihon University, when they visited us last month.   The background is the same Diamond Head (at the top) in my blog, which she took of me at House Without a Key of the Halekulani Hotel.  The photo on the left was taken at our Craigside apartment.

 

We had discussed at some length the matter of death, and we both agreed that there should be no mourning period, but instead, a rebirth.  My blog of July 16 provided “Some Thoughts on Coping with Uncertainty and Despair.”  Both the uncertainty and the despair are now gone, and Pearl is at peace.  Thornton Wilder, perhaps, said it best:

 

"The highest tribute to the dead is not grief but gratitude."

 

During the past month, Pearl suffered from BOOP, a clot in the artery to her lungs and MRSA.  (For those new to blogs and such, all you need to do is click on those colored words, and you will be transported to another site providing the details.)  While she was uncomfortable throughout the ordeal, she was sedated, so should not have suffered much pain.  However, every day, her support structure, people like me, couldn’t help but associate her treatment with what was happening around us.  Each morning, when I woke up, I felt weaker, and was sure my heart had actually shrunk a bit.

 

She was on nearly constant intravenous feed of Heparin and Propofol for much of this period.  There remains, of course, the Heparin (blood thinner) controversy, where 82 died a couple of years ago from what is still not confirmed, but is suspected to be contaminated samples from China containing chondroitin sulfate.  Doubly worse for Pearl is that sometimes this compound comes from crustacean shells, and she is allergic to crab, lobster, etc.  Particularly unnerving was that Michael Jackson might have died from Propofol (a sedative).

 

As I mentioned in that previous blog posting, I’m now covering the medical aspects of my book 2, SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity, and just a few days ago I indicated that there are more deaths (almost always caught in a hospital) from MRSA than AIDS in the U.S.  Finally, health care reform has dominated the discussion in D.C., further linking her case with the real world. 

 

President Obama remarked that much of medical costs comes at the end of life.  I can imagine if this happened to one of those 47 million or so without a medical plan, for it would have been financially ruinous.  Of course, you want the doctors to run every test they can to save her life, and I can only thank them for doing everything possible for her.  These expenses for Pearl must have reached a quarter million dollars in a few short weeks.  Is this good or bad?  That’s part of the debate in Congress.

 

The Pearl Foundation will be formed in her memory.  We will do one more thing for her, and it could be to plant yellow trees at one of her favorite spots, or something particular for Planet Earth and Humanity.  This will be a charitable donation and should be tax deductible, but it will take some time to gain the necessary paperwork cleared.  In the meantime, no flowers, please, and hold any possible contributions until later.

 

Well, anyway, please join me in thanking Pearl for making our lives so much better.  Her family and a few best friends will be “Celebrating” her life in a private ceremony at our home at 6PM on Friday, July 24.  Please come if you were especially close to her.  However, remember, we will only be sharing gratitude.

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The Dow Jones Industrials climbed 104 to 8848, with world markets mostly up.  Crude is steady around $64/barrel and gold surged $14/toz to $951.

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That Atlantic disturbance does not seem to strengthen or go away.  Suddenly, there is now some activity in the Central Pacific.  What worries me is that Ioke formed South of Hawaii in 2006 and became a Category 5 hurricane.  Thankfully, this time, the waters are cooler North of this new formation.

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ETERNAL LIFE (Part 20)

The following continues Chapter 2 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity:

The Science of Eternal Life 

Before delving into the realm of eternal life, let us first explore how life began…according to scientists. Quasi-equal treatment of more biblical beginnings will be found in CHAPTER 5. In CHAPTER 4 on Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, is a term, F₁, representing the percentage of planets where life could have originated. There are, of course, theories that comets or aliens brought life. See the SETI discussion for those alternatives. So if life was initiated on Earth, how? 

 

Starting with energy, water and elements, there is a range of likely environments where life could have begun:

 

o      Aristotle (Greek philosopher) in the 4th Century BC said that life occurred abiogenetically, that, is, spontaneously.

 

o      Louis Pasteur (French microbiologist) proved Aristotle wrong in 1862.

 

o      Joseph Dalton (English botanist) in 1871 suggested that life began in a “warm little pond, with all sorts of ammonia and phosphoric salts, lights, heat, electricity, etc, that a protein compound formed.”

 

o      How close to right he was, for Aleksandr Oparin (Soviet bioscientist) and John Haldane (Scottish geneticist) organic soup theory pretty much exhibited in 1953 by Stanley Miller (photo on right) and Harold Urey at the University of Chicago just about did that. Miller was a graduate student of Urey, who by then had already won a Nobel Prize in Chemistry (1934) through his work on deuterium and heavy water. Water, methane, ammonia and hydrogen, compounds of primordial times, were heated and sparked in a flask for a week, producing more than 10% organic compounds, 2% being amino acids, including 13 of 21 used to make proteins in living cells (schematic on left). Clearly, though, they should have also added hydrogen sulfide and some phosphate compound. Hmm…sounds like another good experiment.

 

o      J. Brooks and G. Shaw (UK bioscientists) in 1973, though, surmised that there was no soup, for nowhere on Earth are there any massive sediments of these compounds, also more recently stated by David Abel and Jack Trevors (U.S. and Canadian bioscientists).

 

o      Graham Cairnes-Smith (Scottish bioscientist) in 1985 postulated the clay theory, that complex organic molecules are formed over time on clay crystals in a process of exaptation, a form of biological adaptation.

 

o      Then there are theories about life starting at the bottom of the ocean through chemical genesis, in deep rocks in the form of archaea (a microorganism somewhat like bacteria), and at bubble interfaces.

 

The Origin-of-Life Foundation will give you a million dollars if you can explain how the original genetic code arose.  There is, yet, no winner.

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Typhoon Molave, at 125 MPH, just (very early Sunday morning) in Shenzen City (just north of Hong Kong).  That disturbance in the Atlantic still far away from any island remains of interest.

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 2971-93-194

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COUNTRY #16: BELARUS

The green stripe symbolizes the future, hope, spring and revival.  The red represents the past and the blood of their defenders.  The white and red vertical stripe is a traditional Balarusian pattern.

This region pictured above was settled by Slavic tribes in the 6^th century and has been conquered, suffered through constant warfare... but has survived, sort of.

 

The Republic of Balarus in 1939 was mostly Polish, when it became part of the Soviet Union.  A third of its population died and a million buildings were destroyed in the Second World War.  The Jewish population was essentially eliminated.  Byelorussia (an equivalent name) was one of the 51 founding members of the United Nations in 1945, but was soon dominated by Moscow.  Independence was attained on August 25, 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed.  However, Independence Day is celebrated on July 3, when in 1944 Minsk was liberated from German troops.

 

The country is flat and landlocked, climate cool and there is almost total energy dependence from Russia, with which things are not exactly hunky dory.  Yet, discussions are ongoing about a formal Union of Russia and Belarus.  It is slightly smaller than Kansas and has a population of 10 million. The life expectancy is 69 and GDB/capita is $6,800.  The economy remains state-controlled using the old Soviet style.  Unfortunately 70% of the Chernobyl fallout landed in Belarussia.

 

The chief of state is President Aleksandr Lukashenko, who has led since 1994 with an authoritarian style, otherwise known as a dictatorship.  There is no freedom of the press.  Relations with the U.S. are strained, while cooperation with China seems to be increasing. 

 

Belarusians eat pork, potato and rye bread, favor a cold vegetable soup called okroshka and drink wheat vodka.  There are various UNESCO World Heritage sites in Belarus.  Americans can visit the country, but while this is not recommended, if you do go, don’t participate in a public demonstration or discuss politics.  In Belarus, the KGB is still the KGB.  There is a common hotel ploy where employees hide your possessions in the most obscure of places in the room.  If you do not report anything stolen or can’t find it, they just return and take it.

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The Dow Jones Industrials ended up 32 at 8744.  World markets also mostly increased.  Crude oil shot up to $63.56/barrel and gold edged up a buck to $937/toz.

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Tropical Storm Molave, now at 70 MPH, west and south of Taiwan, is moving west, and will make landfall in China in two days.  In the North Atlantic, there is a disturbance in the vicinity of Cape Verde that shows potential for development.  Both Carlos and Dolores in the East Pacific have sufficiently dissipated.

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I would like to thank friends and strangers for their concern and advice.  I wasn't expecting anything, really, but the response, not only below, but through personal communications, was moving and appreciated.

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SOME THOUGHTS ON COPING WITH UNCERTAINTY AND DESPAIR

No, this is not another episode from one of my books. To be brutally frank, my wife of nearly 47 years has been very seriously ill now for a month in intensive care. Someday, perhaps, I might say more, for all this has come at a time when I have been serializing my book 2 chapter on eternal life, plus, the nation is attempting to pass a health reform plan. Just the hospital cost (not including doctors, etc.) for the first month was greater than $200,000, so there are financial implications also involved, although medical plans should pick up most of this, for now.

But the fact of the matter is that I’ve kind of lived a charmed life and found that I did not know how to cope with this type of stress. What woke me up was that I’ve been trying to lose 5 pounds for 6 years now, and failed. I weighed myself a couple of days ago and found I had lost 9 pounds during this period.

My Chapter 2 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity indicated that anyone who undergoes constant stress, has difficulty sleeping and has a poor appetite will get sick. Clearly, there is nothing I can do about my wife’s medical problem, but after a discussion with her doctors, I finally realized that I had to also survive, and help the general support structure also, especially her sister and mother, who visit her every day.

Just recognizing the problem has almost magically turned things around, for last night I actually slept for seven straight hours. Previously, a max of three hours, and nothing much else after that. The knot in my stomach has begun to unwind and I yesterday I just decided to walk on at the Ala Wai Golf Course to play for the first time in a while. I have a lunch and a dinner scheduled, and talking to friends and strangers will be part of the solution, something I avoided doing during this period.

About golf, I was in a group with Joe Phengsavath. He was born in Thailand, but now lives in Hawaii and Arizona. You would think that his driving a hundred yards beyond my best and regularly getting birdies would further depress me. Actually, I’ve almost never played better and got something he could not, an eagle, on the 4^th hole. Of course, on the 6^th, he used a three iron to keep his drive just short of the green, and got another birdie. Joe is, of course, a professional golfer, and amazingly enough, holds the record for the lowest score at Ala Wai, a 58.

He was upbeat and will return to the professional tour in the Orient. He also indicated that he is from a family of 13 children, and is #12. His only younger brother was his caddy, who just very recently and suddenly passed away. His mother also died this year. While I might have had thoughts of depression, despair and a dozen other “D” words, Joe mostly looks to the future and went surfing every day this month. There is a lesson here. For one, Pearl’s conditions at least remains hopeful.

Anyway, no one seems to comment in this blog site. Maybe for this one time, readers will try to help me survive.

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The Dow Jones Industrial jerked up 96 to 8712, and world markets all also increased. Crude oil is in the range of $62/barrel and gold dropped $2/toz to $937.

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East and South of Hawaii, Carlos is now a remnant at 30 MPH and Dolores is a depression at less than 40 MPH, but destined to hit cooler waters and diminish. Whew.

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COUNTRY #15: BARBADOS

I'll keep this Pacific temperature map at the top to underscore that two storms are now approaching Hawaii. However, as explained below, models are optimistic that Hawaii should not be affected. Now, on to Barbados.

The left blue in the flag of Barbados represents the sky, with gold for sand and right blue for the sea. The trident is symbolic of independence from England. The three points stand for government of, for and by the people.

That tiny island (about 2.5 times larger than D.C.) on the right above Venezuela is Barbados. The island is speculated to have been inhabited as early as 1600 BC. Regarding the conquering Europeans, the Spanish came first in the early 1500’s and took some of the Caribs as slaves. When the Portuguese later arrived in the island it was uninhabited. They did leave some pigs.

The British established the first colony in 1627. Sugar became the crop of choice. Slaves from Africa were imported and the population became 90% black, although there were also gypsy and other nomadic slaves. In 1720 the population was 182,000. Slaves were exported to the U.S.. but the general practice was abolished in 1834.

Independence was attained in 1966, becoming a parliamentary democracy within the Commonwealth, thus making Queen Elizabeth II the chief of state. The capital is Bridgetown. The current population is 285,000, of which 90% remain black, and the GDP/capita is $19,300.

Interested in going there? Well, there is the Crop Over Festival, once used to celebrate the end of the cane season. While the industry declined, the event was restored, and occurs from July 22 into the first week of August, featuring calypso music, Cohobblopot and the Grand Kadooment. Click on Barbados.org. I should mention that even I've been to Barbados, on a Royal Caribbean Cruise stop, and don't remember seeing anything like these two pictures.

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The Dow Jones Industrials surged 257 (+3%) to 8616, and world markets also significantly increased. Likewise, crude oil jumped to nearly $62/barrel and gold went up $14 to $940/toz.

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Hurricane Carlos was downgraded from a Category 2 to a 1, now at "only" 85 MPH, and is further expected to weaken as it continues to move to a point sufficiently South of the Big Island, according to most models. However, Hurricane Iniki while on a straight path West and sufficiently South of Hawaii, made a sudden 90 degree turn to the North, devastated Kauai and continued to move North. So these models are not perfect. However, that was 1992, and our scientists have hopefully had 17 years to improve their art. Plus, the trade winds should strengthen over the next few days and help to keep Carlos as South as possible. Oh, yes, that second disturbance is now Tropical Storm Dolores at 40 MPH. But Dolores (see temperature map at the top) is expected to move west northwest over the next few days into cooler waters and diminish in strength.

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COUNTRY #14: BANGLADESH

Today I continue my alphabetical review of all 194 countries.

The red disk, slightly off center, represents the rising sun and the sacrifice to achieve independence, over a field of green symbolizing the lush vegetation of the country.

 

As early as 1000 BC, there was a kingdom of Vanga or Banga, which by the time of Sidhartha Gautama 500 years later, became Buddist.  However, by the 10^th century AD, Hindu prevailed.  This region known as Bengal became part of the Mogul Empire in 1576 and, interestingly enough, switched to Islam. 

 

When the British withdrew in 1947, the two Muslim territories separated by Hindu India, became Pakistan.  In 1971, this geographical accident resulted in East Pakistan seceding.  With help from India, about a million were killed in the transition, leading to recognition from Pakistan as Bangladesh in 1974.   It is speculated that Cyclone Bhola (which itself formed from the remnants of Tropical Storm Nora from the Pacific) in 1970 triggered the secession, for 500,000 were killed, and the criticism West Pakistan received galvanized a landslide victory for the opposition party, leading to the liberation war.

 

Muslims account for 83% and Hindus 16%. Their president is Zillur Rahman and prime minister is Sheikh Hasina Wajed.

 

 

Bangladesh is a parliamentary democracy surrounded by India and the Bay of Bengal, plus a small border with Myanmar (formerly know as Burma, a name which is still sort of in use).  The lands were formed by the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers, with monsoons and cyclones regularly devastating the delta. It has a land area in the range of Iowa or New York, but with a population of 156 million, making it the eighth largest nation.  Life expectancy is 60 and GDP/capita is $1500.  The capital city Dhaka has a metropolitan population of close to 13 million.

 

There are no royal Bengal tigers in the Dhaka Zoo, but their only natural habitat is the mangrove swamp next to the Bay of Bengal, where the tigers and the local inhabitants live in conflict.  The fewer than 400 animals kill an average of 34 people each year.  It’s not known what the casualty rate is for the tigers, for their skins can be sold for $3,000 and various parts used for Chinese medicine.

 

What to do in Bangladesh?  Go to the World Travel Guide or the Virtual Tourist.

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The Dow Jones Industrials edged up 28 to 8359, while world markets all increased.  Gold went up $6/toz to $926 and crude oil slipped below $60/barrel.

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Hurricane Carlos is now approaching 100 MPH and is scheduled to move West, but more North than South over the next few days.  Consider buying some necessary supplies before everyone else beats you to it.  That second disturbance behind Carlos is now a 30 MPH storm.

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COUNTRY #13: BAHRAIN

Over a red base, there are five white serrations, each representing the five pillars of Islam.

 

BAHRAIN

Bahrain is an island, with Saudi Arabia to the West and Qatar to the East.  The al-Khalifa clan took away Bahrain from the Persians in 1783, leading to treaties making the country a British protectorate.  Independence was gained in 1971. King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa came to power in 1999. 

 

A look at the Gulf map shows that the Kingdom of Bahrain, a constitutional monarchy, is a very tiny island, about three times the size of Washington, D.C.  You never heard of the capital:  Manama.  Oil is important, with a production of almost 50,000 barrels/day, but this is expected to run out in 10 to 15 years.  Thus, the country has also become an international banking center and tourist site.  It also exports pearls. 

 

Bahrain has a population of 728,000, with almost a third being non-nationals.  The life expectancy is 75 and GDP/capita is $37,200. 

 

There is a simmering problem related to the fact that the ruling family is Sunni Muslim and 60% of the inhabitants are Shiite.  At one point Google Earth was blocked to prevent the masses viewing the royal palaces.  This was reversed, and the world wide web effectively flattened the walls. This Sunni-Shiite situation is not a major problem, but something to watch.

 

Only 1% of the land can be cultivated.  There are droughts and desertification is increasing.  Human-trafficking is a concern.  The Iranian Parliament has made a few noises that Bahrain was their 14^th province during the reign of the Shah, profoundly disturbing Bahrain. 

 

On the plus side, while the above welcome to Bahrain tourism photo seems modernistic, women are covered from head to foot in public.  However, in 2002, Bahrain became the first Arab country to allow them to vote and run for office.  No woman was elected, but six were appointed to the Shura Council, which also has Jewish and Christian representation. 

Two million tourists visit Bahrain every year, and the Grand Prix is an important annual event.  The ancient civilization of Dilmun was centered on this island.  Click on What’s On in Bahrain to learn more about daily doings. 

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The Dow Jones Industrials jumped 185 (+2.27%) to 8331.  Is the economy recovering?  Asian markets all dropped an average of 2% and European markets mostly increased by 2%.  Crude oil inched back into the $60/barrel level and gold went up $7/toz to $920.

By the way, how many of you know that President Ronald Reagan, in 1981, signed a $750 billion stimulus plan in response to an economic downturn caused by the then highest ever price of crude following the 1979 second oil crisis?  Interestingly enough, a year ago oil goes up to $147/barrel, and the economy crashes again.  Do you know what $750 billion is worth today?  $1.8 trillion.

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Oh, oh!  There are two more disturbances in the Pacific (see above), one in the East and one in the West.  The Western (Orient) tropical events are relatively minor.  Behind Carlos to the East, though, is Invest 96, and it just happened.  The term "invest" means that information is being gathered to make a possible future determination.  Tropical Storm Carlos has diminished to 50 MPH, but is expected to maintain that strength and continue moving West towards current speculation South of the Big Island.  However, most models show an eventual dissipation in five days or so.

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OUTLIERS: The Story of Success

Yesterday I reviewed The World is Flat, 3.0, by Thomas Friedman.  He focused on the middle class as the key to our future.  Today, Outliers, published last year, but still remaining #3 on the New York Times Non-Fiction Best –Seller List.  Written by Malcolm Gladwell, formerly with The Washington Post and now a staff writer for The New Yorker, he is also author of The Tipping Point.  The top of the cream of the success crop is featured here, but how they got there is somewhat of a surprise.

 

The essence of the theme is that you will almost surely NOT attain billionaire or sport superstar status unless you are dealt the right life cards.  You can be brilliant, talented and work as hard as you want, but other forces will determine if you will become that famous.

 

The most striking example had to do with Canada and hockey.  In a nutshell, almost all the successful players were born in January, February and March.  This is because the eligibility cut-off to begin the season at the age of 10 is January 2, and a player born this month competes against those born that year until the end of December, or mostly nine-year olds, thus giving the early birthers the significant advantage of maturity.

 

Why is Bill Gates so famous for co-founding Microsoft?  Well, he was very smart, had great parents, persevered, lived in an environment that allowed him to develop that necessary skill and was born in the mid-fifties.  Most of the successes in this field, including Paul Allen (Microsoft), Steve Ballmer (Microsoft), Steve Jobs (Apple) and Eric Schmidt (Google), were at the right age to entrepreneur this field.

 

Similarly, of the 75 richest people ever, 20% were born in the United States from 1831 to 1840, including John D. Rockefeller, Andrew Carnegie, J. P. Morgan, etc.  The American economy underwent its greatest transformation in the 1860’s and 1870’s, and you had to be born at the right time to take advantage of the railroads and Wall Street.

 

Want to be Nobel Prize winner?  You only need to be so smart (in fact, super geniuses generally fall by the wayside because they may lack social skills) and not necessarily go to the best universities.

 

The story of Robert Oppenheimer, who ran the Manhattan Project to build the atomic bomb, is particularly interesting.  While he suffered from depression, at 38 was too junior to lead this effort, was a theorist, had questionable relationships and actually tried to poison his tutor at Cambridge, he had the right combination of brilliance, parents and social interaction skills to prevail.

 

I can go on and on, but there are two points.  First, forget about becoming super-rich or world famous if you lack some key ingredients.  But, second, you can still become rich and/or almost famous if you are smart enough, work hard and have a high social aptitude.

 

As I said yesterday, The World is Flat by Tom Friedman focuses not on the Nobel Prize winner, but the so-called mid-level, to determine if a country is to succeed.  I’ve felt that as long as we cultivate the right 5% of our population, we will remain dominant.  That is the theme of my education chapter in SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity.  Now, toss in Gladwell’s outlier concept and we have three totally different solutions for humanity, or, perhaps, individuals.  Oh, in case you were wondering, an outlier, in this definition, is someone who is an extreme deviation from the mean.

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Carlos seems now to be just below hurricane strength.  However, his movement remains West to Hawaii, and strengthening is almost expected, for the path will continue to be in warmer waters.  However, the below "heat" map of the Pacific shows that for Carlos to turn north near Hawaii, he will encounter slightly cooler waters.  Hopefully, that will minimize potential problems. That other storm in the West Pacific, TD Soudelor is a weakening tropical depression about to strike Viet Nam.