From Worldometer (new COVID-19 deaths yesterday):
DAY USA WORLD Brazil India South Africa
June 9 1093 4732 1185 246 82
July 22 1205 7128 1293 1120 572
Aug 12 1504 6556 1242 835 130
Sept 9 1208 6222 1136 1168 82
Oct 21 1225 6849 571 703 85
Nov 25 2304 12025 620 518 118
Dec 30 3880 14748 1224 299 465
Jan 14 4142 15512 1151 189 712
Feb 3 4005 14265 1209 107 398
Mar 2 1989 9490 1726 110 194
April 6 906 11787 4211 631 37
May 4 853 13667 3025 3786 59
June 1 287 10637 2346 3205 95
July 7 251 8440 1595 817 411
Aug 4 656 10120 1118 532 423
Sept 22 2228 9326 839 279 124
29 2190 8859 643 309 108
Oct 6 2102 8255 543 315 59
19 2005 7528 401 160 80
27 1594 8671 433 734 62
Nov 3 1436 7830 186 458 23
24 1594 8270 176 396 22
Dec 1 1633 8475 266 477 28
8 1324 7894 231 159 36
15 1690 8233 227 343 54
16 997 7115 173 391 36
17 1653 7359 126 289 35
22 1634 7686 137 434 99
Summary:
- Well, not so good.
- The USA had 233,383 new cases yesterday, with the UK now up to 106,122, and parts of Europe even higher in terms of new cases/million.
- US 696
- New York 1407
- Rhode Island 1708
- DC 2177
- Hawaii 686
- UK 1551
- Denmark 2216
- France 1287
- Spain 1283
- Switzerland 1216
- Reunion 5064
- South Africa 349
- South Korea 146
- Singapore 57
- Japan 2
COVID-19, even the Omicron variant, remains a deadly concern for the elderly. From the UK, via the New York Times this morning:
Note that this graphic is for vaccinated individuals. The 0.23% for a 65 year-old man means that, if 10,000 of this group contract COVID-19, around 23 will die. Keep in mind, though, that if you are vaccinated and boosted, even with the Omicron variant, chances are low that you will get infected, and even less so if you take all the precautions.
Here is a meaningful comparison, which I think is erroneous: this New York Times article said that the average death rate among Americans over the age of 65 who contract the flu has ranged between 1 in 75 to 1 in 160. This converts to a mortality rate for the flu between 62.5 to 133.3 per 10,000. In other words, just contracting the seasonal flu means you have from 3 to 6 times a higher chance of dying than that hypothetical 65-year old vaccinated man in the UK of succumbing from COVID-19 if he gets infected.
So I further checked and found that the seasonal flu kills 2.2/10,000 for those 65 and older (and 0.9/10,000 for the 50-64 year-old group). This is roughly 50 times lower than what was reported above. SO CANCEL WHAT YOU JUST READ IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH! The correct comparison should be that the 65-year old UK COVID-19 patient has more than a TEN times higher chance of dying than a 65-year old American flu case.
Based on that analysis, what is striking is that those under the age of 15 are at significantly lower risk of death from COVID-19 than of the flu. Under our assumptions, for example, children under the age of 15 have a 1 in 155,535 chance of dying of influenza, but a 1 in 1.2 million chance of dying of COVID-19.
For toddlers, the relative risk is even more pronounced. We estimate that Americans between ages 1–4 are 3.4 times more likely to die of influenza than of COVID-19.
Would you have guessed that the fatality rate of children in the 1-4 age group is 3.4 times higher for the seasonal flu than COVID-19? But this graphic explains what is happening:
- If you are 4 or younger, you are more prone to die of the seasonal flu than COVID-19.
- The 4-15 age group has slightly more deaths from COVID-19 than the flu if infected.
- Then, the older you are, your chances of death from COVID-19 increases to a factor of 15 from 45 to 64.
- Then, some additional illogic, for the the ratio then drops for the more elderly, and if older than 84, at 5.55 times higher for COVID-19 than the flu, about the same as the 15-24 age group.
While I'm at this (based on CDC data), for those so unfortunate as to contract this virus:
- Those older than 85 are 119 times more likely to die of COVID-19 than those aged 25-34.
- Those under 15 are 73 times less likely to die of COVID-19 than those aged 25-34.
- Those older than 85 are 8687 times more likely to die of COVID-19 than those under 15.
If you are interested in this kind of data, read this article.
Finally, something else that seems almost unfair. From early South African data, as reported by the New York Times, the Omicron variant seems to have a preference for re-infecting those who previously suffered from COVID-19. For some reason, they re-catch it, but their bodies remember the drill, and provide enough protection for these individuals to avoid serious illness. This is part of the reason at this early stage of analysis why there are so few hospitalization cases in the country.
Finally, the FDA has officially approved two oral pills to treat COVID-19 patients at home:
- Paxlovid by Pfizer is authorized for patients 12 or older who are at a high risk of developing serious conditions.
- Has been shown to be 89% effective in keeping people from hospitalization.
- Must be taken within 5 days of the first symptom.
- 30 tablets, 6/day for 5 days.
- Molnupiravir by Merck, also for high-risk adults.
- Only 30% effective.
- 8 pills/day for 5 days.
- One full course of Paxlovid will cost $530. $700 for Molnupiravir.
- Why would anyone choose Molnupiravir over Paxlovid???
- Both should become available next month.
On December 8 my posting was entitled: MAYBE OMICRON REPLACING DELTA MIGHT BE OKAY FOR HUMANITY. I suggested that if early speculations come true, the high transmission rate of Omicron, combined with lower fatality rate, plus the growing availability of these pills and the development of advance vaccines (as, for example, the Novovax NVX-CoV2373), two shots plus booster specifically for the Omicron variant), will in time reduce COVID-19 to just another virus of concern for the seasonal flu. This appears to be coming true. So when will this pandemic be declared over? Still too early to tell.
Yesterday I presented the view of the National Academies on oceanic solutions for global warming. This is part two on how the ocean can be utilized as a global warming solution. Borrowing from the Blue Revolution Hawaii blog site, with slight adjustments:
On Dec 11 Blue Revolution Hawaii had a successful TEDx Countdown webcast of talks by 8 leading experts on the potential of open ocean aquaculture for expanding world food supply while reducing Global Warming emissions. The recorded Talks have been uploaded to TEDx for review and may be selected in a month or so for TED's Library of Talks. In the meantime, here are the individual talks:Pat Takahashi: https://vimeo.com/657074946/8f1aa884f8
Neil Sims: https://vimeo.com/657075206/1e77736f9c
Luis A. Vega: https://vimeo.com/657075716/7c7b3490b0
William A. Spencer: https://vimeo.com/657076364/ec505c1150
Mathew Goldsborough: https://vimeo.com/657076743/156650f706
Shaun Moss: https://vimeo.com/657077047/48d398f963
Dawn Lippert: https://vimeo.com/657077455/95b82612b2
Tetsuzan Benny Ron: https://vimeo.com/657077865/22e3a3e458
Additionally click on the Blue Revolution Hawaii website to:
- Visit the Nature Conservancy advocacy of the Blue Revolution for Sustainable Aquaculture Production.
- Watch the BRH video for the Pacific International Ocean Station.
- Details about the eight speakers, including chairman:
Leighton Chong, intellectual property attorney, Chairman of TEDx Event
Pat Takahashi, PhD, Professor of Engineering and Director of Renewable Energy at University of Hawaii
“The Time for the Blue Revolution Is Now”
Neil Sims, MSc (Zool, UNSW), Founder/CEO, Ocean Era Inc, Kona, Hawai’i
“To the Blue Horizon – Our Oceans as a Salve for Our Ailing Earth”
Luis A. Vega, PhD, Renewable Energy Consultant, formerly at UH/HNEI
“OTEC Carbon-Free & Renewable Power for Ocean Farming & Beyond”
“Automated Open Ocean Fish Farming Platform”
"Oceans of Data: Technology, Transparency & Future of Open-Ocean Fish Farms"
"Improving Production Efficiencies in Aquaculture Through Selective Breeding"
“Building Community Intelligence” (first presented at TEDx 2021 Countdown Summit, Edinburgh)
“Integrated Multitrophic Aquaculture (IMTA) for Ocean Farming Systems”
Special thanks also to Amnon Ron, chief operating officer of CME Congresses in Israel, for providing superior technical assistance.
Except they are, because the JWST mechanisms and machinery have been rigorously assessed and tested. Except they’re not, because that “bucket of single-point failures” contains more than 300 individual things that could each fail and bring the whole $10 billion, 13,700 pound, 30-years-in-development mission down with them. And unlike Mars missions, which will likely keep happening and happening even when one inevitably fails, a failure here could mean a much more conservative future for space observatories, and no second chance.
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