My view of just another sunset as I complete this posting:
The following chart shows how oil prices have fluctuated, with the black line representing the actual cost of oil and the red the inflation adjusted, and, therefore, true cost, relative to 2009:
Note that the lowest value for oil actually occurred in 1998, not 1973, before the First Energy Crisis. There was a second shock after the Second Energy Crisis, when the price escalated to $107/barrel. There was a small spike during Gulf War in 1990, but a descent down to around $10/bbl in 2009 dollars. Then in June of 2008 came that highest ever price of $124.52/bbl. Oil actually peaked on a July day at $147/bbl, but ended up lower for the entire month.
Those peaks represent when we have had our two greatest recessions, so oil prices certainly do affect the economy. What might be lost above is that society gave up on renewable energy mostly because in 1998 oil reached its lowest price ever. Now that crude has retreated below $70/barrel, can we expect another significant dip to again scuttle sustainable resource activities? There are people like Michael Lynch and Raymond Learsey who at the end of August expected $30/barrel oil soon. The Oil Drum had a good rebut and Joe Romm extended a challenge. Suddenly, on October 21, Lynch somehow re-challenged at $65/barrel. Deutsche Bank also predicted an average 2010 price of $65, so maybe that is about as low oil will go into the future.
Finally, clicking FUTURE PRICE OF OIL on the right, you can view what speculators believe to be where oil will go. Nowhere is there $65/barrel, and $100/barrel is finally reached nine years from now.
If all the above holds, we are being given a decade window to do monumental things with conservation, the renewables and global climate change. Alas, our decision-makers seem not to care much.
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My block stock challenge as of today is at 202%. That is, from a little more than a year ago (complemented by my Ford buy and GM buy and sell earlier this year), I've more than doubled my money. Here I purchase many of the worst stocks possible, mostly because these companies were into wind energy conversion systems, OTEC, the hydrogen jetliner, smart grids and next generation vehicles, and still end up ahead. Call it luck, but what it is is buying when the market is down.
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