Okay, the swine flu vaccine is in town. Should you pull strings to get one? Well, I think not. First, if you're older than 64, you probably already have some immunity due to the 1976 swine flu that went around the world. If not, then consider the following:
1. It has been six months since the H1N1 swine flu was first detected, and the World Health Organization, as of October 4, reports that there have been, world-wide, 375,000 cases of the H1N1 swine flu, with 4500 deaths, a Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of 1.2%. In this period, there probably was about 200 million normal flu cases with about 200,000 deaths, a CFR of 0.1%. From all reports, though, there were probably more swine flu cases that were not reported, so the CFR is probably much lower.
2. Thus, each day 2000 people contracted the swine flu, while about a million should have gotten the regular flu. Twenty-four have died/day of the swine flu and, in a typical year, 1100/day should have from the seasonal flu.
3. As a rough comparison, if you contract the swine flu, your chances of dying are 10 times higher using WHO statistics (which are almost surely misleading). However, if you are sickened with the flu, there is only a one in 500 chance it will be the swine flu. Thus far, there is a one chance in about 20,000 that you caught the swine flu.
4. On April 24 I first reported on the swine flu, and the CFR at that time was in the range of 5%, so the reality is one-fourth, or less, that rate. A month later, my blog noted that the swine flu CFR was about 1%, with the added statistic that 3,000 people die each day from traffic accidents. However, the rate of swine flu contraction of 500/day then is now up to 2000/day. Chances are that over the next few months, this rate should increase, but swine flu cases will probably still remain at the noise level. So is this a pandemic? Not really, yet. Remember, tomorrow, and for the next few months, as you face the world, there is a 125 times greater chance that you will die from a traffic accident than from the swine flu...and there is only about a one chance in a hundred that you will die on the road in your life.
Here is a comparison of the various flu fears we have had (worldwide):
1918-19 Spanish Flu: [A/H1N1], CFR of 2.5%, up to 100 million deaths
1956-58 Asian Flu: [A/H2N2], CFR of less than 0.1%, 2 million deaths
1968-69 Hong Kong Flu: [A/H3N2], CFR of less than 0.1%, 4773 deaths
1996-2009 Avian Flu: [H5N1], CFR 25% to 76%, 262 deaths (in 13 years)
2002-3 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), SARS-CoV (not a flu), CFR of 9.6%, 774 deaths
2009 Swine Flu: [H1N1], CFR of about 1% or less, 262 deaths
Seasonal Flu: [A/H3N2], CFR of about 0.1%, 250,000 to 500,000 deaths per year
By the way, in the USA, the vaccine is free. Doctors and organizations can add an "administration fee," which should be less than $20. The injection contains the inactivated swine flu virus, while the nasal spray has the live, but weakened, swine flu virus. So the choice is yours.
-
The Dow Jones Industrials declined 67 to 9996, while world markets, save for Hong Kong and Japan, also went down. In fiscal 2009, the U.S. ran a $1.42 trillion deficit, the largest ever. Gold went up a dollar to $1054/toz and crude oil is now more than $78/barrel.
-
In the East Pacific Hurricane Rick, already at 85 MPH, will become a Category 4 hurricane by Monday, but, even though it does not show below, is almost surely expected to turn north towards Baja, rather than head for Hawaii. There is, however, a new disturbance that just popped up between Hawaii and the West Coast.
Typhoon Lupit, now at 95 MPH, has been re-projected to turn west rather than north, and is now expected to strike North Luzon, possibly as a Category 4 typhoon.
-
ไม่มีความคิดเห็น:
แสดงความคิดเห็น