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วันอังคารที่ 28 เมษายน พ.ศ. 2552

THE WORLD


At the beginning of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth, I included the following information (the numbers refer to references in the book):


To begin with, we are fortunate to be here at all. Let us look at the Universe. It is reported: 32, 109, 200

o If the nuclear strong force were 5% weaker, there would be no stars, and if 2% stronger, no atoms. No stars mean no planets, meaning no life. No atoms, same.

o If there were no greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane and water vapor, primarily) the temperature of our planet would be zero degrees Fahrenheit (remember, ice freezes at 32°F, or zero degrees Celsius), and life as we know it probably would never have formed.

o If there was no water—which has particularly unusual properties—again, no life.

o If there were 4% more oxygen in the atmosphere, there would be no us because the entire planet would regularly be engulfed in flames.

Or something so straightforward as our planets and satellites :168

o If the Moon were smaller, our Earth could not maintain a stable orbit, making the development of DNA impossible, thus, life would not have formed.

o If Jupiter were smaller, there would have been a lot more asteroids around, making life as we know it on Earth difficult because of the frequent large impacts.

o If Earth were a bit smaller, all the oxygen would have escaped by now.

o If our Solar System were not two-thirds away from the center of our galaxy, and instead were closer, the radiation field from the Black Hole supposedly there would kill off life. If further away from the center, there would be an absence of higher elements, again making life unattainable.

Thus, just these simple coincidences, and there are many more, made life possible. This, of course, brings up the notion of an intelligent designer who just had to be around to make this all happen. We shall see in Book 2.

Interestingly enough, in CHAPTER 5, the specter of doom is portrayed in the form of methane as a dangerous greenhouse gas. However, it is reported that the migration of methane into the atmosphere, produced by bacteria, keeps the oxygen concentration relatively constant.197 Much of life is a doubled-edged sword.

You are very lucky, indeed, to even exist as a human. About 100 billion people have lived since the first Genus Homo (early form of our line) about 2 million years ago. In many ways we did come through the equivalent of Eve, possibly through this earliest of moms in Africa, who derived from ape-like creatures, traced back to a period 5 to 10 million years in the past when we broke off from chimpanzees. These primates, of course, originally derived, billions of years ago, from archaea, something like bacteria, considered to be among the first living organisms. Well there are, too, viruses—they invented DNA—but this is already much too scientific.346

Of course, you could easily not have been conceived as a human being. You could have been a microorganism, your best chance for life. Forget about being important or responsible for now. The fact that you are here as a human is a one in 10 to the 34th power probability, that is, one chance in 1, followed by 34 zeroes, or 10 decillion (see APPENDIX A for details on these long odds).

But now that by some major miracle you are here, appreciate the luck of the draw that created your presence. Your life is too, too precious to squander. Do feel guilty or inspired to make that crucial difference for humanity? Let us explore the resource options that will keep you and your future generations going.


So, to begin the program of reporting on Planet Earth and Humanity, our globe is 4.55 billion years old, just about a third the age of the Universe. While most publications cite 195 nations, the CIA Factbook says 265 entities. I toyed with the idea of reporting on all 265, but, after one excursion, decided to focus on 195.

The population of the World in the year zero (birth of Christ) was around 200 million. We grew to 1 billion in 1804, 2.5 billion in 1950, currently have 6.7 billion, and could well increase to 9.2 billion in 2050. Thus, although all reports indicate that our population is leveling off, from today to 2050, our globe will gain an increase of 2.5 billion people, which took from the beginning of our species some 100,000 thousand years ago to 1950 to attain. The Tokyo urban area, at 36 million, is roughly double that of New York/Newark, Mexico City, Mumbai, Sao Paulo, Delhi, Shanghai or Kolkata. One-third are Christians and only 14% non-religious or atheist.

The surface of Planet Earth is about 71% water. The U.S. has the largest Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ, 200 nautical miles from shore), almost doubling our jurisdictional area, while France is #2. Japan expands its surface control by a factor of 10 with their EEZ. Water and land combined, Russia is the largest country. The United States has jurisdiction over one sixteenth of the land on Earth, and is larger than China. Russia and China each border 14 countries, while 94 nations have no connecting neighbor.

The U.S. has the largest economy, but did you know that in 2008, Macau, Azerbaijan and Angola registered the highest growth? The World Gross Domestic Product in 2008 was $70 trillion ($1.4 trillion to military expenditures), while the market value of traded shares was $67 trillion in 2007. Today, it could well be half that total. Oil consumption, at 85 million barrel/day in 2008, will drop a billion barrels/day in 2009, but should be back up by 2010.

We use more than 3 billion phones, while internet usage should this year approach 2 billion individuals. There are 600 million vehicles on the road.

More than anything else, the world is at relative peace today. The Doomsday Clock, though, remains at 5 minutes to midnight, uncomfortably close to the doom. There remains, of course, that annoying economic collapse, which, hopefully, has already seen the bottom, at least by consumer surveys. Of course, President Obama has been cautiously optimistic, too, so, perhaps, it is now safe to say--although a few members of my Peak Oil/Global Warming Forum would disagree--that the best is yet to come.
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The Dow Jones Industrials started at -85, went positive, then ended -8 at 8017. Gold dropped $4/toz to $894 and crude remained below $50/barrel (see graph at right). The really big news of the day is that U.S. Senator Arlen Specter switched from a Republican to a Democrat (I didn't know he could just do that!), meaning that if Al Franken (D-Minnesota) does get confirmed, as is expected, the Democrats will have a filibuster-proof 60 votes in the U.S. Senate.
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Tropical Cyclone Kirrily is still loitering between Indonesia and Australia at 40 MPH.
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Tomorrow: Country #1: Afghanistan.
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