THE SCIENCE TO STOP AND REVERSE AGING: Part 2

As was expected, the USA again bombed Iran last night.  From the New York Times this morning, a graphic showing that the USA/Israel vs Iran War recycles a series of conflict and calm:

Source: Data on U.S. and Iranian attacks comes from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, or ACLED, a nonprofit that tracks global conflict. Adina Renner/The New York Times

And, by the way, Israel is still doing things, yesterday bombing a mosque in Gaza they said was where the Hamas stored weapons.

Also this morning from the New York Times:

The number of data centers in the United States is poised to explode. Source: Cleanview. Jacqueline Gu/The New York Times

I earlier this month posted on:  ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE DATA CENTERS.

So on to Part 2 of my series about stopping, if not reversing, aging.

• If new to this blog site, or you forgot what I earlier said, read Part 1.
• My earliest posting on this subject reaches back to 1September2009.
• Leonard Hayflick, a dragon twelve years older than me, is a professor of anatomy at the University of California at San Francisco (UCSF), and is previously from Stanford University. He is known for the Hayflick Limit (most cells divide 20-100 times before dying, as a limit for humans), which directed research towards the cell as the controller of aging. Importantly, he determined that the capped telomere enzyme region appeared to be the key to aging. He effectively found this biological clock in 1961, when I was a chemical engineering junior at Stanford.
• I should add that he did well, passing away 2 years ago at the age of 96.
• 
  University of Colorado behavioral geneticist Thomas Johnson, in 1988, extended the life of a worm called Caenorhabditis elegans by 60%, thus introducing this nematode to the scientific world. He chaired two Gordon Conferences on the Biology of Aging.

• 
  Biologist Cynthia Kenyon, MIT PhD associated with Lenny Guarente, holding the Herbert Boyer (who was earlier mentioned) Professorship, and who previously worked for Nobel Laureate Sydney Brenner, wants to live to be 150. She has increased the life span of C. elegans by a factor of six, meaning the equivalent human life of 400 years. She has merely suppressed the regulator gene, daf-2. C. elegans is a good lab model because it only has about a thousand types of cells and is translucent, so you can see the organs. She helped found a company, Elixir, with Guarente, raising $37 million to find a Fountain of Youth pill. Kenyon believes it is in the realm of possibility that just changing the right human gene could double our lifetime. Then, who knows?
• 
  Aubrey de Grey a biomedical gerontologist from the United Kingdom, has been working on “strategies for engineered negligible senescence" (SENS), or, finding a cure for human aging. He lists seven types of aging damage, but I’ve compressed them into five:
• cancer
• mutations
• junk molecules
• death of cells
• loss of elasticity linking cells
• 
  He co-founded the Methuselah Mouse Prize (MMP), with a sum of $4.5 million to fund researchers to extend the lifespan of mice.  Methuselah reached the age of 969 years in The Bible. 
• Has been quoted to say that people will start living thousand year lives at any selected age in 25 years.
• 
  Michael West offers a personal journey in his The Immortal Cell. He was initially a creationist, devoted to dispelling evolution, but made a full reversal after witnessing the death of his father, shifting from Greek and Hebrew to biology, gaining a PhD degree, and turning to immortality science. He co-founded Geron in 1990, the first to biotechnologically treat age-related disorders, becoming a pioneer in stem cell R&D. Very simply, their goal is to take the patient’s own cells, rejuvenate and modify them, and insert them back in the person to treat diseases. Specifically, telomeres would be lengthened. Their experimental cells now double more than a 100 times. Macular degeneration and atherosclerosis (hardening of the arteries) will someday thusly be treated. He is now president and CEO of Advanced Cell Technology, which is the only American company pursuing human therapeutic cloning research, and serves as Adjunct Professor Bioengineering at the University of California at Berkeley.

• 
  Sixteen years ago, my posting was on Eternal Life.
• This article was released two years after publishing one of my books, described below.

Chapter 2 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity deals with immortality.  On July 15 The Huffington Post published my article on this subject (Science and the Future of Cloning: Is Immortality Possible?), the same day and time that another posting appeared by David Stipp on "Why Anti-Aging Science Really Matters."  Stipp just this month came out with a book entitled, The Youth Pill: Scientists at the Brink of an Anti-Aging Revolution

• Anyway, he drew 7 comments while mine received 222.  The best I can figure out is that his article is rather clinical and factual, while mine is somewhat conjectural.
• Remember, this was 16 years ago, so I was definitely premature in saying the following in that posting:
• There are at least two pathways to continue your presence. One does not involve human cloning. Without going into telomeres and ribonucleoproteins, let me just say that science is actually close to finding and checking the aging gene. Someday, you might be able to take a pill and stop growing old. The question is, can this technique be perfected before you get too old?
• The other is cloning, and there are two kinds: therapeutic and reproductive. The former is almost okay, while the latter is verboten, except in certain countries where the laws are fuzzy. You can expect some future breakthrough in countries where religion is not dominant.
• 
  So let's say you can afford to be cloned.  You still need to transfer the information in your brain to this new cloned you.  Elon Musk has suggested that his brain-computer interface startup, Neuralink, could eventually allow humans to upload memories and consciousness into digital immortality.
• However, when formed in 2016, Neuralink was not looking into this potential.
• More recently in 2020, How to Live Forever was posted on progress.
• I asked Google AI today, how Neuralink is doing:

Neuralink today is successfully translating specific physical and communicative intent from the brain into a computer, rather than directly downloading complex abstract thoughts. Patients with the implant use their thoughts to control a cursor, type text, play video games, and operate speech-restoration software. [1, 2, 3]

To come, Part 3.

The path of Super Typhoon Dolphin has shifted.  Formerly to Tokyo, now further south, with a median predictive path between Kyushu and Okinawa.

Dolphin:

• Became a typhoon on July 28.
• Attained super typhoon strength on July 29 up to 165 MPH.
• Today still a super typhoon at 155 MPH.

Predictive paths of Dolphin:

To end, 50 years ago today, the #1 song on Billboard was Kiss and Say Goodbye, by The Manhattans.

In the UK on this day half a century ago?  Don't Go Breaking My Heart, by Kiki Dee and Elton John.

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ARE WE GETTING MORE EARTHQUAKES?

Before my blog on earthquakes, two newsworthy items:

• The lull in the Iran War is over.  Iran lobbed missiles at American bases in the Middle East.
• Here is the backdrop:

• 
  Way back in February, Netanyahu and Trump felt that, if they could surprise Iran with a serious series of bombardments, they could assassinate the Supreme Leader, plus many dozens of top government leaders, stimulating the people to rebel and overcome.  Israel and the USA could then swoop in, establish a new government, and totally demolish any nuclear ambitions.

• 
  The USA/Israel did succeed in killing Ali Khamenei and 53 leaders.  Here is the complete list.
• However, Iran knew someday this would happen, and they organized a plan to take control of the Strait of Hormuz, and if necessary, also the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

• 
  Here is the current situation.
• The people did not rebel, a new government formed and Iran has been able to maintain control over the two oil flow choke points.
• They also are not idiots.  Remember what AI has indicated?

A wily Iranian carpet dealer is commonly stereotyped as a shrewd, charming, and highly skilled negotiator who uses hospitality, theatrical storytelling, and deep product knowledge to close a sale.

• 
  Iran knows that they can survive with no timing problem, if the USA does not place many thousands of boots on the ground, something that  will lead to a long ground war with huge casualties, perhaps more than the 7,000 American troops killed in the Middle East since 2001.
• The result of this war is a major economic problem for the U.S. and world, spurred by higher petroleum and fertilizer costs.

• 
  President Trump is faced with a mid-term election problem that is only 97 days away.
• Who knows what will happen.
• Invasion of Kharg Island?
• Postponement of mid-term elections? 
• The Supreme Court and Congress have no enforcement powers, all controlled by the President, an existential flaw of our Constitution.  Thus, the end of democracy in the U.S.?

• 
  How goes the confirmation process of now acting attorney general Todd Blanche in the U.S. Senate?
• John Cornyn (R-Texas), is threatening to vote against the confirmation of Blanche.  My sense is that Cornyn will be provided enough satisfaction for Blanche to come to floor vote.
• This is when it could get embarrassing for Republicans, for they have a 3-vote majority.
• 
  There are three senators not returning next year because they defied Trump, and either voluntarily chose to retire, like Senator Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina), or lost primaries, like Cornyn and Senator Bill Cassidy (R-Louisiana).
• However, a tie just means that Veep JD Vance will break it.
• 
  The interesting wild card is Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky).
• He remains not well enough to return for a floor vote, but just his absence would deny Blanche confirmation.
• Or, if a vote is held, he could show up on the floor, and rather dramatically vote no.  For good personal reasons.
• But, so what.  Another person will be nominated who will be similarly loyal only to President Trump.

So on to my posting of the day, I asked Google AI, are we getting more serious earthquakes?

No, we are not getting more serious earthquakes in the 21st century; the long-term frequency of major earthquakes remains remarkably constant. Instead, better technology, higher global populations, and instant news make normal seismic activity feel more frequent and intense. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

Why It Feels Like There Are More Earthquakes

Better Technology: Modern global networks use sensitive tools that spot and record tiny tremors we used to miss entirely.
Instant News: Fast digital communication and social media mean we hear about remote or minor shakes right away.
More People: Growing cities mean more humans live near active fault lines, leading to higher damage and media coverage when a quake hits. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]

The Scientific Reality

Stable Averages: Long-term data shows the Earth averages about 15 to 18 major earthquakes (magnitude 7.0 or higher) every year, a rate that has not changed over the past century. [1, 2]
Normal Variation: Yearly totals naturally go up and down slightly, but these shifts are regular random fluctuations, not a sign of an upward trend. [1, 2]

The key statement above is that our Planet Earth has suffered from 15 to 18 magnitude 7.0 earthquakes each year for the past century.

We will be into our 8th month in a few days, and have suffered from 9 (or 10) earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 and above.  So in the next 5 months, we should, perhaps, experience around 6 or 7 more.

Major Earthquakes (Magnitude 7.0+)

Magnitude 7.8: Offshore the Philippines (June 7)
Magnitude 7.5: Tonga (March 24) and Venezuela (June 24)
Magnitude 7.4: Indonesia (April 1) and Japan (April 20)
Magnitude 7.3: Vanuatu (March 30) and Mexico (July 17)
Magnitude 7.2: Venezuela (June 24)
Magnitude 7.1: Malaysia (February 22) [1, 2]
Magnitude 7.1: Kumamoto, Japan (July 29).  That was the measurement of the Japan Meteorological Agency.  The USGS called it a 6.8.

Further:

• Two of the above earthquakes resulted in deaths.
• 5,546 from both Venezuela shakes.
• 107 from the one in the Philippines.
• In addition, 18 (and counting) died yesterday in the 6.8 (or 7.1) Kumamoto (Japan) quake and 12 in 5.8 magnitude earthquake in Afghanistan on April 3.  
• Can you believe that we have had 53 earthquakes this year of magnitude 6.0-6.9?
• If you are in a 5.0 earthquake, it can scare you.

• 
  I reported in the Huffington Post in 2011 when I was reporting for them of a 7.1 magnitude in Tokyo.  This was a late aftershock of the cataclysmic 9.0 Great Tohoku Earthquake, Tsunami and Nuclear Disaster.  Just saw that this earthquake is now officially of 9.1 magnitude.
• The largest five?

• 11960 Valdivia, Chile (Magnitude 9.4 - 9.6)
• 21964 Anchorage, USA (Magnitude 9.2)
• 32004 Indian Ocean, Indonesia (Magnitude 9.1 - 9.3)
• 42011 Tohoku Earthquake, Japan (Magnitude 9.1)
• 51952 Kamchatka Earthquake, Russia (Magnitude 9.0)

• 
  
  

I had another HuffPo assignment earlier, when on 27February2010, Chile was hit by an 8.8 magnitude earthquake.  The title was, Hawaii Tsunami?  This was an interesting story because I wrote this article from Amsterdam, Netherlands.

You can also rate earthquakes by number of deaths:

• #1  1556 Shaanxi Earthquake, China (8.0), up to 850,000.
• #2  1976 Tangshan Earthquake, China (7.6), up to 300,000.
• #3    526 Antioch Earthquake, Syria/Turkey, up to 300,000.
• #4  1920 Haiyuan Earthquake, China (7.8), 273,407.
• #5  2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami, Indonesia (9.2 or 9.3), 227,898.

What a way to close....but:

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MY LIFE: PART 3G Pearl's Ashes--The Taj Mahal

President Donald Trump had a big day today, meeting Israel President Benjamin Netanyahu and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, separately.  The White House called President Donald Trump’s Tuesday meetings with leaders from Israel and Ukraine "positive and productive.”   Trump then paid tribute to Senator Graham at his National Cathedral funeral service.  Netanyahu and Zelenskyy also attended.

About the Iran War, mediators are trying to work out a peace discussion plan.  However, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei keeps saying his country has not asked to resume talks and has no immediate plans for a next round of negotiation.

The good news, however, is that both sides have stopped attacking each other.  Yet, the Strait of Hormuz continues to be severely restricted and oil flow through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is around 50%.

I have been posting on my life, three phases, each 27 years long, and am now into Part 3, retirement.  I started at the age of 6, and covered education and work in the first two phases.  Will there be another 27-year post retirement gift as Part 4?  The odds are minuscule, for that would mean death at  the age of 113.  Why so pessimistic?  The current oldest living man right now is João Neto of Brazil, who is 113 years old.  The oldest male ever was Jiroemon Kimura of Japan, who lived to be 116 years and 54 days  old. 

So back we go to February of 2010.  I spent about a week in India:

• INDIA SUCKS…*
• INDIA IS AN EXPERIENCE
• NEW DELHI
• AN EERILY BIZARRE DINNER IN DELHI
• INCREDIBLE INDIA
• FROM DELHI TO MUNICH TO BARCELONA

My arrival into Delhi was difficult, which you can read in that first posting above, India Sucks...*.  

The flight from Bangkok was enjoyable.  The plane lands on time, I pick up my bags and get sent to another baggage check area, where they find my computer.  I am asked, how much is this worth?  I say $2000.  The customs officer says, I need to pay duty.  No sense continuing this discussion, for the drill is that they find something to charge you extra, so I coolly give him the equivalent of $100 (surreptitiously, under the table….really!), for that is just the price of a typical dinner on this trip.  He offers me tea, I say no thanks, and he ooshes me on, but as I’m about to exit the customs area, another officer notices that I have $5000 of cash indicated on the form, which he says has to be taxed.  Without argument I pass on another $20 and move on.  I suspect $20 would have sufficed for the first guy.  This is reminiscent of Cairo, another nightmare, found in Chapter 6 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth.

Air pollution was terrible.  That photo above was from my room of India Gate.  I might add that this posting drew the most comments of all in the 17-year lifetime of this blog.  You should read them.  Most agreed with me, and some of the comments are hilarious.

To continue:

First things first, and I joined a tour to Agra and the Taj Mahal for what I think is $50 (2400 rupees).  Pick up at 6:15AM tomorrow and return at 10:15PM.  I think, because a hotel car with driver was to have cost me $200.

I then took that tour on Day 2.  

• Oh what an experience.  Not only was there a driver, but to his left, a navigator.  He was the one who told the driver when to pass.  I saw my life pass at least a dozen times.  Why?

The drive of 4 hours to Agra was a nightmare. Early in the morning, a red light means please consider slowing down, but, if there appears to be no crossing traffic, whiz through as fast as possible. The 130 mile ride was mostly down a four lane highway, with a few complications. Ox, goat and horse driven carts; wandering cattle and water buffalo; way overloaded trucks; tuk-tuks that carry not two people, but up to 20; congested towns; people running across the street and horrendous air pollution (it was smokey the whole way). For transportation buffs, you will see every possible mode of transport since the dawn of civilization, including trains that seem to move along well and, above, airplanes, which I only imagined were there, for the haze is worse than when the volcano emission envelopes Honolulu.

• 
  I should mention that now there is a more efficient 6-lane highway.
• The Taj Mahal is in Agra.
• It cost $20 to enter.  Today?  $13.
• The Taj Mahal is kind of an off white, but, after all, it is made of white marble (was finished in  1648), stands in a polluted atmosphere, and is 378 years old.
• I dropped off Pearl's ashes next to what looked like a plant with lehua blossoms.
• 
  Return to Delhi:

The most exciting part was the ride back to Delhi, all 6 hours of it. This was the equivalent of the road through hell. They say that just at the moment of a catastrophe, time slows, like, say, your car meeting another head-on at 60 miles per hour. To survive in this traffic, the driver needs to be intrepid, no, make that, reckless. He needs to fearlessly pass cars and toot his horn as much as possible. Time virtually stopped for me at least a dozen times today. 

The miracle of it all is that not once did our van even scrape another vehicle. I did not see an accident all day. However, an hour into Delhi we ran into an electrical storm. If you never have been through one of these, you're in luck. In one town there was a siren blowing. Maybe tornadoes? Lightning hit a pole in front of us and sparks fell on the road. But, I landed at the Le Meridien, which, I said yesterday, is an oasis.

Next.  Probably Mount Kilimanjaro.  Oh, you should read that final posting mentioned above:  FROM DELHI TO MUNICH TO BARCELONA.  This was one of my ultimate adventures:  First Class on Lufthansa, incident at the Indira Ghandi airport where I thought I was going to be executed....as in shot, arrival into Munich during a whiteout (we flew into a blizzard), and more.

About all those hurricanes:

• Fausto is now only a tropical storm at 650MPH, and will be north of Honolulu tomorrow, with expected weakening to 40 MPH.  
• The eye is 400 miles east northeast of Honolulu, and moving west at 14 MPH.
• Today, a few showers with little wind.
• Tomorrow, the prediction is high east-facing shores, but not much rain nor winds.
• Here are some predictive models of the path.

• 
  Super Hurricane Genevieve was up to 160 MPH yesterday, but has already weakened to 125 MPH today, with a predicted track almost parallel to Fausto, but further north.

• 
  Tropical Storm Dolphin in the West Pacific is at 50 MPH, and will become a typhoon tomorrow, but zoom up in a 24-hour period to reach Category 4 strength.  
• Then the next day on 29July become a Super Typhoon at more than 157 MPH.  Current models out to August 2 still shows Category 5 strength, still with a track to the middle of Japan.
• According to Stars and Stripes, last night (remember that the International Date Line is just west of Hawaii):

At 9 p.m., Dolphin was about 2,910 miles east of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, and 490 miles southeast of Wake Island, rumbling west at 12 mph, packing 115-mph sustained winds and 145-mph gusts at center.

JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) forecasts Dolphin to then peak at an incredible 165-knot sustained winds, or 190-mph sustained winds, and 200-knot gusts, or 230-mph gusts. Equaling Tip for the strongest on record. It’s still not clear what Dolphin’s final destination will be. Model-track guidance and the GFS and Euro forecast ensembles are slowly favoring southwestern Japan, Shikoku or Kyushu, in the neighborhood of Sasebo Naval Base and Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni. We’re still taking more than a week out. Much can change over that span. But for any weather observer, this is quite interesting and exciting to watch. We’ve had some strong typhoons and tropical cyclones the last 15 years. This could top them all.

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