EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF COVID-19 VACCINES

From Worldometer,  COVID-19 new deaths:

           DAY USA   WORLD   Brazil      India   South Africa

June      9     1093    4732        1185      246         82

July       1       676    4857        1057      438         92

             5       251    3572          535       421       173

             6       378    3573          656       474       111

             7       993    5504        1312       479       192

           12       380    4118          659       500       108

           13       465    3729          770       540         93

           14       935    5414        1341       586       174

           15     1001    5760        1261       614       107

           19       412    4606          715       675         85

           20       545    4040          718       596       140

           21     1119    5669        1346       671        195

           22     1205    7128        1293     1120        572

           26       450    4307         556       715        114
           27      596     4200         627       636        298
           28    1266     5589         955       776        190
           30    1485     7023       1544       779        240
           31    1465     6418       1189       783        315
Aug      1    1462     6429       1191       765        193
            2     1123     5601       1048       852        148
            3       467     4430         514       514        213

            4       567     4366         572       810        173

Summary:  Nothing much new.

Professional sports seem now to be serving as the canary in the coal mine of coronavirus.  Guess the site of the NBA bubble:

• Why are fans flocking to Disney World since its reopening, undeterred by Florida’s outbreak? In The Atlantic, Shirley Li breaks down what makes the parks “not just attractive, but vital” to their devotees. “I felt safer going to Disney than going to the grocery store,” one attendee told her.

• “Baseball is never just about baseball,” Doug Glanville, a former major league player, wrote in an essay in The Times’s Opinion section about the sport’s recent outbreak of coronavirus infections. “It is called our national pastime for a reason. The virus has dealt a serious blow not just to the league’s operation but, in some sense, to the nation itself.”

• My take on school openings is analogous to Major League Baseball, where the Florida Marlins and St Louis Cardinals were hit with numerous cases of COVID-19.  Attempts will be made to have at least some classroom learning.  However, the case count will jerk upwards in those regions, resulting in considerable pull-back.  The result is that the new cases and deaths will not result in a particularly serious next wave.  However, the economy of the nation will sink even further so that in early October we will have a totally screwed up schooling system combined with a still rotten economy.

• Here is what happened to Israel:

• The government sent students back to the classroom in May, for the case numbers looked encouraging.
• Outbreaks closed more than 240 schools and led to the quarantine of 28,147 teachers and students!

As Kliner told the Knesset, 1,400 Israelis were diagnosed with the disease last month. Of those, 185 caught it at events such as weddings, 128 in hospitals, 113 in workplaces, 108 in restaurants, bars, or nightclubs, and 116 in synagogues, according to Kliner, while 657—which is to say 47 percent of the total—were infected by the coronavirus in schools.

• Useful info for Donald Trump:
• The former king of Spain, Juan Carlos, announced he was abandoning his country amid investigations into possible money laundering and tax evasion. 
• It would be wise of Trump to find a country which makes extradition difficult.

• New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd has made the ridiculing of Donald Trump into an art form.  Read her latest.  A quote:

Even Trump’s allies are baffled about why he can’t fake a sense of compassion and competency. He has made enough cheesy movie cameos — even one hawking cheese-stuffed Pizza Hut crust — that he should know how to pretend to be halfway human.

Here is all you need to know about the development of the COVID-19 vaccine:

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• There are 165 candidates with 27 already in human trials.
• Phase 1:  for safety
• Phase 2:  for efficacy and dosing
• Phase 3
• for efficacy
• would involve tens of thousands of people
• should take several months
• each study will need 30,000 volunteers
• they will each probably earn $500 to $1200 and more for getting one or more shots and participate in interviews over a one-year period
• multiply $1000 by several hundred thousand to get the cost of paying volunteers
• Don't look for the use of weakened coronavirus at this time because of the risk.
• The first generation will merely limit the severity of the spread.
• Think flu shot rather than polio vaccine, which gives 99/100% immunity for a few years.
• Expect something like 50% effectiveness.  Not good, but better than zero.
• Beginning early next year there could well be 300 million dosages available, but all signs point to the need for two shots, a month or more apart.
• Some priority system will be developed as to who gets injected first.  In any case, what percent actually taking this vaccination is a big unknown, especially since there is yet no assurance of long term safety.  The seasonal flu immunization rate is always below 50%.

• Here is a complete list of the 42 leading contenders.  Scan down the list to be impressed with the world effort.  Incredible how fast this field is moving.

My predictions:

• The FDA will make an announcement in October on the success and promise early availability, which will probably mean January.  Something Trump will insist for the November 3 vote.  Maybe too quick for public safety, but, after all, this is Operation Warp Speed, and you know the ethics of the White House.

• Dr. Anthony Fauci has said he would be glad to take the first shot.  However, sometime later in October, Donald will trump Fauci and with great fanfare, in the Rose Garden, be the first official volunteer.

Here I'm trying to Save Planet Earth and Humanity.  Then someone puts together 12 minutes of nothing.  Interesting, perhaps, but lacking in significance.  Certainly not worth your time, unless you have absolutely nothing better to do.  Click on that link to at least find out what this object might be.  Not an avocado.

Okay, one more.  Two minutes of flowers from, I think, Russia:

Tropical Storm Isaias made landfall over North Carolina and is racing through New York into Massachusetts.  Lot's of rain and still strong gusts.  

In the West Pacific, Typhoon Hagupit rolled over Zhejiang and Hangzhou, skirting Singapore, and is now a tropical storm soon to enter the Yellow Sea, with a projected path towards Russia or North Korea.

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I've moved Pearl's Sunburst into the 15 Craigside 12th floor elevator lobby area.  Should be in full bloom in a couple of days.

COVID-19: The ASYMPTOMATIC Mystery

From Worldometer,  COVID-19 new deaths:

           DAY USA   WORLD   Brazil      India   South Africa

June      9     1093    4732        1185      246         82

July       1       676    4857        1057      438         92

             5       251    3572          535       421       173

             6       378    3573          656       474       111

             7       993    5504        1312       479       192

           12       380    4118          659       500       108

           13       465    3729          770       540         93

           14       935    5414        1341       586       174

           15     1001    5760        1261       614       107

           19       412    4606          715       675         85

           20       545    4040          718       596       140

           21     1119    5669        1346       671        195

           22     1205    7128        1293     1120        572

           26       450    4307         556       715        114
           27      596     4200         627       636        298
           28    1266     5589         955       776        190
           30    1485     7023       1544       779        240
           31    1465     6418       1189       783        315
Aug      1    1462     6429       1191       765        193
            2     1123     5601       1048       852        148
            3       467     4430         514       514        213

Summary: Wow, not bad.  Or is this the Monday effect?

Of course by now you must know that an asymptomatic COVID-19 person is one who is infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus, but shows little or no symptom.  At one time the World Health Organization thought that these patients rarely transmitted the disease.  Today?  They're not sure.  Some studies show that half the cases are caused by these individuals.  

There is, too, something called pre-symptomatic.  This is someone who caught the infection, is contagious, but has not yet shown any symptom.  While the median period to show sickness from initial contraction is five days, it could well be as long as two weeks.  This is why that 14-day quarantine period is the standard.

If you get sick from COVID-19, it can be far, far worse than the flu or the cold.  From all reports, you feel a lot more terrible, and the condition lasts longer.  The death rate could be three to five times higher than the seasonal flu.  However, if some of you had the good fortune to have previously contracted the flu or a cold from some strain of the coronavirus, it is more and more appearing that you might be immune to this SARS-CoV-2 virus.  Further, it is possible that these asymptomatic cases might well show no symptoms because of this past link.  It has to do with T-cells.  If this were so, there could well someday be a T-test to confirm your immunity.  Basically, you do get infected, and will be counted as a case, but your T-cells prevent you from getting really sick.  There is so little know today about all this that researchers are still uncertain if you can or cannot transmit this disease to another person in this condition.

The whole matter of asymptomatic cases has so complicated this pandemic that governments just don't know what to do about re-opening the economy and schools:

• First of all, what percent of all COVID-19 (same as SARS-CoV-2) cases are asymptomatic?
• The CDC months ago already went on record that up to 90% of cases are asymptomatic.  Well, this is what they really said:
• Tests were taken of residents in San Francisco and New York, and the estimated number of cases was 10 times the number of reported cases.
• So the CDC covered itself by saying that the actual case count could be from 6 to 24 times the official number.
• Other researchers have said this asymptomatic number could be as low at 30%, and up to 50%.  Thus, there is absolutely no consensus today.
• In any case, most researchers seem to today conclude that when all is said and done, the mortality rate for COVID-19 will probably be somewhat less than 0.5%, and even as low as 0.3%, or 3 to 5 times worse than the flu, which has a death rate of 0.1%.
• Going to the Worldometer table:
• Dividing total deaths by total cases for the World gives you a figure of 0.038, or a mortality rate of 3.8%
• The U.S. tests more than most countries, but by doing the same, you get 0.033, or 3.3%.  Why isn't this number a lot lower?  My best guess is that many countries, like in Africa or in the region of India, are just not reporting accurately.  They have a lot more deaths from this coronavirus than officially indicated.
• But if the mortality rate from the seasonal flu is around 0.1%, why 3.3% and 3.4%?
• The death rate from COVID-19 is thus 33 times higher than the flu from the above statistics.  
• But I just said this multiple should be 3 to 5, not 33.  
• The most logical way to look at this is that the case number must be too low.
• To get to 0.4%, the World total case number needs to be 173 million.  Thus, if the 18,232,846 actual World total cases did not include any asymptomatic people, the asymptomatic rate must be 90%.  Maybe the CDC was right.
• Know what a 90% asymptomatic rate means?
• First, forget taking temperature tests because you will be letting through 90% of the COVID-19 cases.  
• Higher because you'll also miss the pre-symptomatic ones. 
• Especially terrible for airline travel because even if you have a fast test for COVID-19, you'll miss most of the infected, who might not be as contagious, but who knows how much less.
• Plus, consider that we have had a total of less than 20 million COVID-19 cases worldwide.  There are a billion flu cases/year, plus the average is 2-3 cold cases/person/year,  which add up to 19 billion cases/year.  For every coronavirus case, you have several times more flu travelers and several hundred times more cold cases, both which could come with elevated temperatures.  Add allergies.  The airline  industry would turn away too many people to remain in business.
• Second, forget contact tracing because you won't have enough people to do the tracing.
• Third, and really important:
• The World will be reaching herd immunity a lot faster.
• To quote that same article:

"For herd immunity, if indeed we have a very large proportion of the population already being immune in one way or another, through these cellular responses, they can count towards the pool that you need to establish herd immunity. If you have 50% already in a way immune, because of these existing immune responses, then you don't need 60 to 80%, you need 10 to 30% -- you have covered the 50% already. The implications of having some pre-existing immunity suggests that maybe you need a small proportion of the population to be impacted before the epidemic wave dies out," said Dr. John Ioannidis, a professor of medicine and epidemiology and population health at Stanford University.

• Even better, for if the asymptomatic rate is 90%, we are already at herd immunity.
• So why are hotspots still occurring around the world?  
• The asymptomatic rate is not 90%, at least where these outbreaks are occurring.
• What is, then, this asymptomatic rate?  No on knows.  Somewhere between 30% and  90%.
• The key newsworthy item of this whole posting, however, is that previous coronavirus infections from colds and the flu have probably made a good percentage of the population pre-immune to COVID-19.
• Also, it is possible that outbreaks of coronavirus colds and flu previously swept through Africa and the Orient so that a good number of their population must be pre-immune today.  This situation no doubt occurred in the 2008 H1N1 Pandemic when both Africa and India were not affected.  They must have had a previous H1N1-type cold and/or flu season in the recent past.  Immunity, however, rarely extends out more than a few years, so these epidemics, which probably never reached the USA, must have been fairly recently.

With some pride, I can report that Hawaii is contributing to testing and vaccine developed:

• First, Patrick Sullivan, CEO and founder of Oceanit Laboratories, announced that his firm has developed a home coronavirus test kit giving results in 3-10 minutes.  You will not need to stuff a swab up your nose or prick your finger.  Just saliva works.  Will cost $20.  If true, he will become really rich.  I was on his Ocean Engineering PhD committee at the University of Hawaii eons ago.  Good thing we approved his degree.

• Axel Lehrer of the University of Hawaii, working with Hawaii Biotech (served on their board in the early years) and Soligenix, has used their Ebola virus and multivalent filovirus vaccines platform to develop a vaccine for the prevention of COVID-19.  Their vaccine candidate demonstrates the ability to rapidly stimulate a balanced antibody responses.  However, they are yet at the mice level of testing, so a long way to go.

A few more Trumpisms to make your day:

lt's looking now that Isaias will return to hurricane strength just before making landfall at the South Carolina side of the border with North Carolina:

And, if you were wondering, Isaias is the Spanish-Latin derivative of the Hebrew name Isaiah, an Old Testament prophet.  The name means God is my Salvation, and should be pronounced:

     ees-ah-EE-ahs.

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A TRULY WONDERFUL DAY

From Worldometer,  COVID-19 new deaths:

           DAY USA   WORLD   Brazil      India   South Africa

June      9     1093    4732        1185      246         82

July       1       676    4857        1057      438         92

             5       251    3572          535       421       173

             6       378    3573          656       474       111

             7       993    5504        1312       479       192

           12       380    4118          659       500       108

           13       465    3729          770       540         93

           14       935    5414        1341       586       174

           15     1001    5760        1261       614       107

           19       412    4606          715       675         85

           20       545    4040          718       596       140

           21     1119    5669        1346       671        195

           22     1205    7128        1293     1120        572

           26       450    4307         556       715        114
           27      596     4200         627       636        298
           28    1266     5589         955       776        190
           30    1485     7023       1544       779        240
           31    1465     6418       1189       783        315
Aug      1    1462     6429       1191       765        193
            2     1123     5601       1048       852        148

Summary:

• Africa has 54 countries.  
• South Africa has 5% the population of the continent, but more than 50% the number of COVID-19 cases.
• Are other countries just not reporting their cases/deaths, or merely awaiting the coming doom?
• Yesterday, South Africa had 10,107 new cases.

• Columbia (South America) had 10,673 new cases.
• Brazil 42,567 NC.
• India 54,865 NC.
• USA 58,429 NC.
• South Korea 31 NC and no new deaths.
• Thailand 2 NC and no new deaths.  They are now #110 in total cases.  When I was there in February, Thailand was #2 to China in total cases.  I wonder what they did right.
• China 54 NC and no new deaths.
• Singapore 307 NC and no new deaths.
• Japan had 1464 new cases and is in a state of panic.

• From the New York Times daily briefing (comes to me by e-mail, so I can't send you to a link) today, and don't believe that idiot named Trump...things are getting worse:

The seven-day average for new infections is hovering around 65,000 for two weeks in what amounts to a second wave of cases. The U.S. recorded more than 1.9 million new infections in July, nearly 42 percent of the more than 4.5 million cases reported nationwide since the pandemic began and more than double the number documented in any other month, according to a Times database.   A new report about a coronavirus outbreak at a sleep-away camp in Georgia provides fresh reasons for concern. Of the 600 campers and staff members, nearly half became infected within a week of orientation. The camp took precautions but did not require campers to wear masks. Singing and cheering may have helped spread the virus. Meanwhile, Joe Biden is getting closer to selecting his running mate, with Representative Karen Bass of California and Susan Rice, the former national security adviser, among the leading contenders. One possible advantage for Ms. Bass: She has assured Democratic officials that she has no interest in seeking the presidency herself, according to lawmakers.

I can't imagine a worse reason for selecting a vice presidential partner.  If Biden is elected, he will be 82 at the end of his first term.  You want an individual who can immediately step-in as president if necessary!  Double-worse, Representative Bass is from California.  Biden already owns those electoral votes.  She is already 66 years old.  What kind of logic are pundits using to determine the Veep?  Read my analysis of July 30.

On that sour note, I'm taking a day off from my sometimes spiritual Sunday.  I understand that this posting now probably forever rules out my qualifying for Heaven--although I would think Someone up there must also allow for occasional euphoria--but yesterday was so exceptionally wonderful, so unexpected, the kind of day that makes life worthwhile, that some mercy is deserved.

So what was this truly wonderful day?  Well, it involved a lunch and two films.  To explain, I ventured out on Friday, one stop being Marukai to select the best piece of Miyazaki Wagyu Beef I've ever seen in Hawaii (it was thick, which allowed for medium rare--most pieces I've had in the past were too thin), and a small chunk of ahi (yellow-fin tuna):

I cut this rather large steak into three pieces:  one to have for lunch, a second to insert into one of my meals this coming week, and a third to freeze.  I've noticed that a couple of months in that condition do not diminish the umami taste.

I was planning to watch a MLB game with this feast, but there was none.  The PGA golf event had just finished for the day, and I don't bother with the NBA these days.

So in searching around I saw this:

I'll go into the film next, but Kavalan deserves a few words.  I got this bottle when I picked up the wagyu because I've always wanted to try it.  In 2016 Kavalan won two awards for best single malts in the world.

Kavalan Distilleries is in Taiwan, and all of 14-years old.  The taste was smooth and slightly sweetish.  Unusual.

That bottle of wine is also another story.  I bought this Heitz Cellars Cabernet Sauvignon 20 years ago, and awaited the proper moment to have it.  There was no reason at all, but this is today perfectly consistent in my current state of euphoria.  You can actually purchase this particular vintage today.  Twenty-one years old and still developing.  One of the better wines I've ever had.  Even superior to that Chateau Lafite Rothschild I tasted last year.

The greatest escape film of all time is Ferris Bueller's Day Off.  I saw it in 1986.  That was a third of century ago.  Rotten Tomatoes gave it an 80/92 rating.  In those days, that would have been about right. Today, after my second viewing, a 100%.

Mind you, Ferris Bueller is not me.  But that is why I so enjoyed the experience, for he did something I never could.  I never skipped school.  I did ride in a Ferrrari once.  Now Louis, who owned that car, and was chairman of the board of the Florida Solar Energy Center, could well be Ferris himself.  The highlight of the movie was Danke Shoen and Twist and Shout in that Chicago parade.

A few years ago when I decided that I had done enough about being the model person, I made a life-changing decision to just personally enjoy life for the rest of my life.  Thus, this movie nicely fit into this current phase of my euphoric life.

Matthew Broderick is the son of actor James Broderick and is still married to Sarah Jessica Parker.  He has had a successful career in films and on Broadway.

Cameo roles for Ben Stein, mentor of Jimmy Kimmel, and Charlie Sheen, playing his usual ornery self, but with wisdom.  Jennifer Grey plays Bueller's sister.

She too comes from Hollywood stock, as her father is Oscar winner Joel Grey (Cabaret).  Jennifer and Matthew were in those days dating.  The following year came Dirty Dancing.  Can you believe she is now 60 years old?

After lunch, I still had the single malt and cab available, so I thought, why not.  15 Craigside had recently shown South Pacific on our TV theater, which I recorded.  This is only the best film ever for me, something I've seen a whole number of times already.  But perfect for this truly wonderful day.

If you're interested in why this film is so important to me, READ THIS, a posting I made just about a year ago.  I keep showing this photo because it epitomizes this message.  Many of you have seen it too many times, but I keep repeating because, everyday, this blog site is new to half the readers.

The following was sent to me this morning, and I show it for no particular reason, except that this happens to be day for something like that, and it was funny.  I would imagine there are numerous culinary regions that consider rice to be pasta:

The first photo below was taken yesterday.  Then, today on a sparkling Honolulu Sunday morning.  Pearl's Sunbursts are finally beginning to bloom.  To quote from one of my postings:

In 1983 Pearl was diagnosed with breast cancer.  Her doctor recommended surgery followed by chemotherapy.  While she was recuperating at Kuakini Hospital, I saw in a flower shop a red, spherical flower with no leaves.  I learned that this was an African Blood Lily (Scadoxus multifloras) and grew from a bulb.  I called it a sunburst to inspire her.  I told her that as long as she could re-grow this flower, she would live.  While chemotherapy lasted for a terrible few months, she mothered two more flowers the following year, and they almost kept doubling each year.  That's the view of Punchbowl from our Craigside penthouse.

Thus, this is the 37th year of blooming.  So this photo more than anything else symbolizes what was a truly wonderful day.

Tropical Storm Isaias never returned to hurricane strength, and is merely skirting the east coast of Florida.  Of course there is a lot of rain and some wind, but no landfall is expected here.  Perhaps the eye will impact on North Carolina:

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FINALLY...FACE SHIELDS

From Worldometer,  COVID-19 new deaths:

           DAY USA   WORLD   Brazil      India   South Africa

June      9     1093    4732        1185      246         82

July       1       676    4857        1057      438         92

             5       251    3572          535       421       173

             6       378    3573          656       474       111

             7       993    5504        1312       479       192

           12       380    4118          659       500       108

           13       465    3729          770       540         93

           14       935    5414        1341       586       174

           15     1001    5760        1261       614       107

           19       412    4606          715       675         85

           20       545    4040          718       596       140

           21     1119    5669        1346       671        195

           22     1205    7128        1293     1120        572

           26       450    4307         556       715        114
           27      596     4200         627       636        298
           28    1266     5589         955       776        190
           30    1485     7023       1544       779        240
           31    1465     6418       1189       783        315
Aug      1    1462     6429       1191       765        193

Summary:

• The USA and World are stuck at this rather high plateau.  
• Plus, the U.S. had 70,904 new cases yesterday, so looks like we'll have more than 1000 new deaths, if not 1500, through the middle of this new month.  Forget about the full classroom opening at this time throughout the country.
• Central/South America has definitely become the new epicenter.
• Even Japan, which was showing promising signs of becoming the next China/South Korea/Singapore, experienced four straight days of more than 1,000 new cases, mostly because of partying around too much.  It's possible that a re-lockdown might well be instituted.  Huge uncertainty about opening schools.

Finally.  Finally.  Even the White House (not Trump but Deborah Birx) has underscored the value of face shields.  I've had several postings on this subject, wondering why this subject matter has been just about totally ignored.  My initial concern was that the coronavirus can enter through your eyes, and that simple glasses were insufficient.  Plus, you can't touch your face with a shield in the way.  Also too, you can use it for months, if not forever, with minimal wiping.  My facial PPE will protect you even better, but as importantly, it really better protects me from you too.  I hate wearing a mask for my oxygen input is minimized and glass fogged up, plus it's uncomfortable.  There is as yet no consensus whether you absolutely need to wear both at the same time.  I think the shield alone is sufficient, as has been observed in some schools in Japan, but Birx suggests both.  I'd like see a credible medical study on this matter.

So, with that introduction, let me next introduce you to my stupidity.  Not sure if this was just plain dumbness or not, but, as some of you know, many months ago I ordered a face shield from Amazon.  It took a while, but it finally showed up, with no directions.  But how difficult is it to wear a face shield?  I was disappointed about the clarity.  So more recently I bought a new one.  However, the sales clerk pointedly and carefully showed me how to peel off the protective coating.  Beautiful and comfortable.

Of course, the first thing that occurred to me was...was there a layer I had to remove from the first one.  Success, as I removed the outside skin.  However, no matter what I did, I could find no inner coating, so I gave up there.  While I don't need to use that one anymore, it definitely is clearer than before.  At worst, if need be, I'll walk around only half-dumb.  You, on the other hand, can smartly wear a face shield.  Just make sure to take-off those protective coatings.

Incidentally, you can pay $20 as I did for my imperfect shield, but most are down to only a few dollars from Amazon.  My second one cost $8.  Or, as this You Tube presentation shows, you can make yours for 16 cents.

The end of Major League Baseball this year?  Sources: ESPN, WSJ 

And then there were six. It started when a few Miami Marlins were infected with the coronavirus, as well as one of the Washington Nationals who just missed opening day when he tested positive. Now 20 Marlins are infected, their team sidelined with Washington, Philadelphia, Toronto, Milwaukee and St. Louis — the latest team showing infections. Friday’s 15th cancellation, Milwaukee vs. St. Louis, was the first with no connection to Miami, indicating what in civilian circles would be known as community spread. That raises the question: How long until the season is called?

College football can quarantine their players/staff together on campus, and, perhaps charter flights.  However, the NFL has chosen to allow theirs to go home to family.  I see very little chance for any kind of full season for this contact sport.  The NBA seems to be surviving in their Disney World bubble.

On Wednesday I featured an article from STANFORD Magazine about that nightmare on campus.  I today finished reading the issue and noticed one of my contributions in the Class Notes section:

That's Wilbur Hall in the background.  As would be expected of my Blue-Bar Pigeons, here is something someone sent me:

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Hurricane Isaias weakened into a tropical storm over the Bahamas, but will almost sure regain strength into again a hurricane.  

It's possible that the track will be sufficiently east that landfall could be avoided over Florida.

It occurred to me that there is a huge difference between Hawaii and those Atlantic/Gulf hurricanes.  Hawaii has tall volcanoes.  Hurricanes hate land and absolutely abhor mountains.  That is one of the primary reasons why Oahu, Maui and the Big Island have avoided them in recorded history,  Kauai does not have a Mauna Kea.  Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida and the Eastern Seaboard lack this barrier, so cyclonic storms just barrel over those areas.

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