WHEN DID ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE BECOME AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT?

Would you believe it was 1863 when 27-year old novelist Samuel Butler, in an essay on Darwin Among the Machines, expressed serious concern that highly advanced machines might pose existential risks to humanity?

The upshot is simply a question of time, but that the time will come when the machines will hold the real supremacy over the world and its inhabitants is what no person of a truly philosophic mind can for a moment question.

In 1920, a play, R.U.R. (Rossum's Universal Robots), by Czech author Karel Čapek, coined the term robot.  They began to replace human workers, leading to a violent revolt against their Homo sapien masters.  Fritz Lang's 1927 film, Metropolis, had humanoid robots fighting the capitalist oligarchy.  Click on that link to watch the entire 2 hour 29 minute production.  Fine quality, silent, of course, but with good audio sounds.  Portions of the original were lost, and only in 2008 found.  Rotten Tomatoes ratings of 97/92.

In 1951, computer scientist Alan Turing wrote the article, Intelligent Machinery, a Heretical Theory:

Let us now assume, for the sake of argument, that [intelligent] machines are a genuine possibility, and look at the consequences of constructing them... There would be no question of the machines dying, and they would be able to converse with each other to sharpen their wits. At some stage therefore we should have to expect the machines to take control, in the way that is mentioned in Samuel Butler's Erewhon.^[25]

Various individuals have similarly expressed concern since then.  It was in 2010 that I participated in a San Francisco Singularity Summit inspired by Ray Kurzweil.   In those days, Artificial Intelligence was an interesting concept with possible future human significance.  Look at who spoke at this Summit, and then the 16September2024 Time most influential people in Artificial Intelligence.  Aside from Kurzweil, the AI luminaries of today are all new.  

Following that summit:

• In 2014, famed physicist Stephen Hawking, alongside leading AI researchers Max Tegmark and Stuart Russell, warned about superintelligent AI systems “outsmarting financial markets, out-inventing human researchers, out-manipulating human leaders, and developing weapons we cannot even understand. Whereas the short-term impact of AI depends on who controls it, the long-term impact depends on whether it can be controlled at all.” 
• 
  2014  Nick Bostrom published Superintelligence, further sparking this existential threat.  Also. the Future of Life Institute (FLI), Stuart Russell, Roman Yampolskiy, Elon Musk and Bill Gates began expressing worry about Artificial Intelligence (AI).
• 2016  ...the journal Nature warned: "Machines and robots that outperform humans across the board could self-improve beyond our control—and their interests might not align with ours".^[37]

• 
  2017  FLI released Slaughterbots, a film about a dystopian world featuring AI weaponry.
• 2020  Brian Christian published The Alignment Problem, about the building of artificial intelligence systems aligned with human values.
• 2023  OpenAI leaders suggested that superintelligence may be achieved in less than 10 years.
• 
  More recently, Nick Bostrom, founder of the Future of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford, has said, comparing AI with the human brain:

• Speed of computation: biological neurons operate at a maximum frequency of around 200 Hz, compared to potentially multiple GHz for computers.
• Internal communication speed: axons transmit signals at up to 120 m/s, while computers transmit signals at the speed of electricity, or optically at the speed of light.
• Scalability: human intelligence is limited by the size and structure of the brain, and by the efficiency of social communication, while AI may be able to scale by simply adding more hardware.
• Memory: notably working memory, because in humans it is limited to a few chunks of information at a time.
• Reliability: transistors are more reliable than biological neurons, enabling higher precision and requiring less redundancy.
• Duplicability: unlike human brains, AI software and models can be easily copied.
• Editability: the parameters and internal workings of an AI model can easily be modified, unlike the connections in a human brain.
• Memory sharing and learning: AIs may be able to learn from the experiences of other AIs in a manner more efficient than human learning.

Brookings earlier this month commented:  Are AI existential risks real--and what should we do about them?

• In March 2023, the Future of Life Institute issued an open letter asking AI labs to pause giant AI experiments.

• 
  Two months later, hundreds of prominent people signed onto a one-sentence  statement on AI risk  asserting that “Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.”
• 
  A danger about the exponential growth in AI achievements is that imperceptible change can suddenly blossom into transformative AI capabilities, not unlike the following example:

The hypothetical example of filling Lake Michigan by doubling (every 18 months) the number of ounces of water added to the lakebed makes the same point. After 60 years there’s almost nothing, but by 80 years there’s 40 feet of water. In five more years, the lake is filled.

• 
  However, Meta's Chief AI Scientist Yann LeCun in 2024, remarked that it “is not going to be an event… It is going to take years, maybe decades… The history of AI is this obsession of people being overly optimistic and then realizing that what they were trying to do was more difficult than they thought.”

So when did AI become an existential threat?  Maybe 162 years ago, then, again, more seriously around the Year 2010.  If anything, more recently though, some top AI thinkers feel that humanity should be able to control AI.  Should we be worried about humans controlling AI?  Maybe the concern should be us, Homo sapiens?  We have had world leaders who irrationally changed the course of history.  AI could well be the pathway to a sustainable future for intelligent life.

While safely too far south of Hawaii, and moving westward, Iona became a hurricane yesterday, and has zoomed up to 125 MPH, likely to strengthen into a Category 4 tomorrow.  Right behind, on a path closer to Hawaii is Tropical Storm Keli, with other disturbances to the east, likely to attain cyclonic form.

-

SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ED SULLIVAN

On July 21, Netflix debuted a new documentary, Sunday Best:  The Untold Story of Ed Sullivan.  I still remember growing up of watching the Ed Sullivan Show on Sunday nights.  So as last night was Sunday night, I watched this production.

• This all began as a radio program, Summer Silver Theater, that first aired on CBS in 1932, then in 1941, hosted by Ed Sullivan.
• This was first 15-minute gossipy talk-and-interview shows of Jack Benny Irving Berlin, Florenz Ziegfeld, etc.
• When it returned in 1941, it was called the Ed Sullivan Variety on CBS.
• From 1943-1944 as Ed Sullivan Entertains, a variety show on CBS.
• Then in 1946 as Ed Sullivan's Pipelines, a 15-minute program on the Blue Network.

• 
  Finally, television.
• Toast of the Town on 20June1948.
• This first program featured comedians Dean Martin and Jerry Lewis, singer Monica Lewis and Broadway composers Richard Rodgers and Oscar Hammerstein II previewing the score to their then-new show, South Pacific.

• 
  This Broadway show opened in 1949 with Enzio Pinza and Mary Martin.  South Pacific won the Pulitzer Prize for Drama in 1950.
• Toast of the Town was in the 9-10PM slot Eastern Time in Year One on CBS every Sunday night.
• Moved to 8-9PM from 1949 to 1955.

• 
  Name change to The Ed Sullivan Show on 25September1955.
• In 1968,  on the 20th anniversary, the TV home of the show on 1697 Broadway, at 53rd Street, was renamed the Ed Sullivan Theater.

• 
  The final show, number 1068, was on 20March1971.
• The theater was later used by the Late Show, now with Stephen Colbert.
• Sunday night with Ed Sullivan became the family ritual of gathering around the television for many, including mine.

Ed Sullivan had a conscience and morality, especially on civil rights, that defied the norms of the day.

• Born Edward Vincent Sullivan on 28September1901 in Harlem, New York City of Irish descent.
• Was a star athlete in High school, playing halfback on the football team, guard in basketball, catcher in baseball and sprinter with track team.  Won 12 athletics letters.
• Sometimes his team played away in Connecticut, which used black players.  This is where he found out how gifted they were.
• Went straight from high school into newspaper work, later into sports writing, then joined the city's largest tabloid, the New York Daily News when he was 28 years old.
• At 34 wrote and starred in the film, Mr. Broadway.  Click on that to see the only surviving 5-minutes of this lost film.  You'll see him, also Bert Lahr and Jack Benny.
• This experience made him a competitor to Walter Winchell.

About Ed Sullivan and his shows.

• Television critics gave his shows poor reviews.
• 1948:  Harriet Van Horne alleged that "he got where he is not by having a personality, but by having no personality." (The host wrote to the critic, "Dear Miss Van Horne: You bitch. Sincerely, Ed Sullivan.")

• 
  Time magazine was especially critical.
• In 1955:  Sullivan resembled "a cigar-store Indian, the Cardiff Giant and a stone-faced monument just off the boat from Easter Island.
• Then in 1967:   His mannerisms on camera were so awkward that some viewers believed the host suffered from Bell's palsy.^[14]  He moves like a sleepwalker; his smile is that of a man sucking a lemon; his speech is frequently lost in a thicket of syntax; his eyes pop from their sockets or sink so deep in their bags that they seem to be peering up at the camera from the bottom of twin wells."^[15]

• 
  "Yet," the magazine concluded, "instead of frightening children, Ed Sullivan charms the whole family."
• Read this article today released by Time mgazine about The True Story Behind Netflix's Ed Sullivan Documentary, Sunday Best.
• 
  Said frequent guest Alan King, "Ed does nothing, but he does it better than anyone else in television."^[16]
• A typical show would feature a vaudeville act (such as acrobats, jugglers or magicians), one or two popular comedians, a singing star, a figure from the legitimate theater, an appearance by puppet Topo Gigio or a popular athlete. The bill was often international in scope, with many European performers appearing along with the American artists.
• Missed scooping him, but had Elvis on his show in 1956 three times.

• 
  Witnessed Beatlemania on TV, so signed the group for an appearance on 9February1964.  Became the most-watched program in TV history to that point.  Beatles returned 3 more times.
• The Dave Clark Five, a "cleaner" Beatles group from the UK, appeared 13 times on Sullivan's show.
• Color came in 1965.

• 
  Maybe most significantly, he had a special appreciation for Black entertainers, and from the early 1950s, long before it became fashionable, brought in Black legends you never heard of, like Peg Leg Bates, Pigmeat Markham and Tim Moore, and, of course, those you did, like Louis Armstrong, Pearl Bailey, Sammy Davis Jr, Bo Diddley, the Platters, Fats Domino and numerous Motown acts, including the Supremes 17 times.

• 
  He dared to shake hands with Nat King Cole  and kiss Pearl Bailey on her cheek.
• Got a lot of heat from the South, especially auto dealers selling Ford Lincolns, who sponsored him.
• Sullivan survived.

• 
  Also embraced something the nation had not early on, country and western music, paving the way for Johnny Cash, Glen Campbell and other CW singers.
• Brought in performers from throughout the world.  Canadian comedy duo Wayne and Shuster make the most appearances of any act, 67 times.

• 
  Had a difficult early marriage (with her family) because he was Catholic and his wife Sylvia was Jewish, but she became his closest critic and partner, and they had a daughter Betty, who married Bob Precht, the show's producer.  Sylvia passed away in 1973.
• He began to suffer from dementia in his later years and became forgetful.  Passed away from esophageal cancer in 1974.  Was a lifelong smoker.
• Many friends, including U.S. presidents, and had audiences with popes.

Following up on the feud between Stephen Colbert and Donald Trump (you need to go to the end of this posting), according to Time magazine:  

Stephen Colbert Is Practically Daring CBS to Shut Him Down Early

A tropical depression formed just south of Hawaii yesterday.  Today we have Hurricane Iona at 75 MPH, but expected to strengthen into a Category 2 later tomorrow.  Thankfully, Iona is sufficiently south of Honolulu, and is scheduled to keep moving east and away from the state.

-

WHAT HAVE I ACCOMPLISHED AT THE UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII?

This blog site is into my 18th year.  Thought I'd glance at how many partly written articles were in storage and  spent yesterday discarding many of them.  There were around 450.  After a hundred or so I gave up, and still have around 350 drafts.  However, one was the basis for my posting today.

I was born and grew up in Honolulu, but did not spend any school time at the University of Hawaii until August of 1972, when I was hired by the College of Engineering as an assistant professor.  So it's been 53 years since I first came to the main Manoa Campus.

• 
  I originally taught Fortran IV Programming and a couple of other computer courses.  This is the textbook I used.  I knew the co-authors, Paul Murrill and Cecil Smith.  Murrill went on to become president of LSU.
• After a couple of years, I joined the Civil Engineering Department.  Environmental Engineering and Technology & Society were two courses where I had more than a hundred students for some semesters. 
• But teaching takes a lot time and effort, where there is pressure to  get research funds and publish papers for promotion and gaining tenure.

• 
  My research topics focused on geothermal reservoir engineering and laser biochemical engineering (my PhD dissertation topic), where the student I hired to do the  lab work, Bill Bow, went on to found his own engineering consulting firm.  He was selected for the Lifetime Achievement Award last year by the Hawaii Council of Engineering Societies.  
• The fact that he is now retired says a lot about how long I've been here.  I still maintain a functioning office with two computers, a sound system and assorted other stuff.  Here below are some displays and  photos on my wall.
• The first one is a best sellers list from the local newspaper showing two of my books in the top ten.

• That map on the wall is of the St. Andrews Old Course, where I've golfed several times.  A microwave oven and refrigerator with drinkables.

• In 1987, during a trip to Europe I bought a print of Van Gogh's Blue Irises, which set a record for the most expensive painting ever sold, $54 million.  This is a replica from the Van Gogh Museum in Amsterdam.

Some of my awards.

The item below is a fake press release Harvey Meyerson and I created way back in 1981 when we were working for Senator Spark Matsunaga.  Why this specific topic?  His political advisory committee had picked crime and punishment as the focus of his re-election campaign, when he did nothing in this area.  Nary a bill, speech or anything of that relevance.   If this press release had ever gone out, we would have been fired.

Following, the scorecard of the ultimate golf game I played in 2007, scoring a 74.  I had separated my right shoulder when I tripped across a rope at the Ala Wai Golf course a few months earlier, and this was the first time I had played since then.  Swinging was still a problem, so I did not try to hit the ball too hard.  You'd think this would have taught me a lesson.

I worked closely on these two below bills which became law, and Chairman of the Senate Energy and Resources Committee, Scoop Jackson, arranged for me to get copies.  I had a special relationship with him because Senator Matsunaga did not get to many committee sessions, and Jackson voted up or down for Sparky depending on which way my thumb faced.

My final passion is the Blue Revolution.  I have a Blue Dragon as our mascot.

Someone gave me this sign.  Can't imagine why.

So what have I accomplished at the University of Hawaii?

• In 1976 I was on the team that discovered, drilled for (to a depth of 6450 feet), and found what at that time was the hottest geothermal well in the world.  We produced electricity for 2000 people on the Big Island.

• 
  I might add that this region of Puna was then isolated, and close by there were illegal patches of marijuana.  They were among the most vocal opponents of geothermal energy development, and had funds to fight our efforts.

• 
  I was on leave from the UH from 1979 to 1982, and staffed the passage of original legislation in hydrogen, OTEC, wind energy and seabed mining, while working for U.S. Senator Spark Matsunaga in DC.

• 
  Returned to Manoa and became director of the Hawaii Natural Energy Institute (HNEI) while, with Dean of Engineering Paul Yuen, creating the Pacific International Center for High Technology Research (PICHTR).  

• 
  These two organizations were awarded more than $100 million to build the first open-cycle ocean thermal energy conversion at the Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii on the Big Island, a biomass-to-methanol facility on Maui, and a range of renewable energy operations on all the major islands.

• 
  HNEI became the U.S. Department of Energy's Hydrogen Center, U.S. Department of Interior's Marine Mineral Technology Center, and National Science Foundation's Marine Bioproducts Engineering Research Center.
• 40 years after being founded, PICHTR today has a sterling board of directors.

• 
  Also spent assignments with the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in laser fusion and the NASA Ames Research Center in the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence.

• 
  I retired in 1999, but 26 years later, still have an office in the Pacific Ocean Science and Technology Building, where I have been trying to develop the Blue Revolutions.  Watch these two videos.
• 2022 TEDx talk on the Blue Revolution.
• 2012 presentation on the Pacific International Ocean Station.
• 
  While in retirement, wrote three books.
• SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth
• SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity.
• Simple Solution Essays.

• 
  I also published more than 100 articles in the Huffington Post.  Typical one-page summaries of topics such as the Blue Revolution, Star Power for Humanity, the Stanford Marshmallow Test, 10% Simple Solution to Peace, Human Cloning, Biofuels from Algae, the Future of Sustainable Aviation, Extraterrestrial Intelligence, the Ultimate Ocean Ranch, Geoengineering of Climate Change and The Venus Syndrome.

To close, three sporting events.

• Lottie Woad, 21-year old from the UK, won the Scottish Open today.  This was her initial LPGA event.  She just was victorious in the Irish Open as an amateur earlier this month.  She no doubt is the favorite at the AIG Women's Open, which starts on Thursday at Royal Porthcawl in Wales.  This is a different course from where the men had their Open, which was the Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland.
• 
  Hard to believe that the NFL will begin pre-season play this week.  The Hall of Fame Game between the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Charger will also be on Thursday.

• 
  Week Zero in college football is not until August 23 when Iowa State plays Kansas State in Dublin, Ireland.  Aviva Stadium opened in 2010, and has already showcased 4 previous U.S. football games.  There will be 8 other weekend games, ending with Stanford at Hawaii.

Typhoon Krosa is up to 90 MPH, and heading for Japan.  However, models show the eye making almost a right turn, and take a path parallel to the Honshu coastline, sufficiently far enough away not to cause any serious damage.

-