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วันจันทร์ที่ 25 พฤศจิกายน พ.ศ. 2556

FIRE, SAKE AND TURKEY #2

I went to two movies this weekend:  The Hunger Games:  Catching Fire and Sake Bomb.  Of course Fire was #1 this weekend with box office revenues of $161 million, more than ten times that of the big hit Thor, #2, which only gained $14 million.  The budget for Fire was $130 million, so it already has recouped the investment.  Hunger Games 1 earned $700 million.  However, in just one weekend, add $147 million international to the domestic sales, resulting in Fire globally earning $308 million.  I couldn't find the revenues for Sake Bomb, but it must have been microscopic.

Fire had 89% reviewer and 94% audience Rotten Tomatoes ratings.  This Part Two was definitely better than Part One, but what was unexpectedly surprising, to me, was the vulnerability of Superwoman and Oscar winner Jennifer Lawrence, showing uncommon frailty and indecisiveness throughout, and becoming an unwitting decoy by the end of this film, with her not realizing what was really happening.  She also will have a touchy decision to make in Part 3 about who really is her true love.  Donald Sutherland was devilish and Philip Seymour Hoffman, already prominent in #2, will take on a major role in Parts 3 and 4.  But I can't say why.

 Things are not quite what they seem, but let me stop there for I don't want to give the whole thing away.  This was supposed to be a trilogy, but there certainly will be two more Hunger Games:  Mockingjay 1 and Mockingjay 2.  What is a mockingjay?  Read the books (three by Suzanne Collins) or see Fire.  Okay, I'll tell you, it is a mythical hybrid with another mythical bird.

Oh, the jungle scenes were filmed in Hawaii (Manoa Falls, Heeia State Park and Keehi Lagoon beach), with Kawela and Kuilima Bays near the Turtle Bay Resort serving as the beach sites.  In fact the whole film was close to a condensation of the TV series, Lost, also produced in Hawaii.

Maybe you need to be a male of Japanese ethnicity to enjoy Sake Bomb (which is a jigger of sake bombed into beer, with the contents drunk in one fell swallow) but I was maybe more entertained by this film than from Fire.  Rotten Tomatoes hasn't yet rated this Japanese-American production of a naive young sake maker from Japan seeking a lost love on a road trip to Petaluma with his angry American-born Japanese racist cousin from Los Angeles who is deprecating about other races in his video blog, including non-Japanese orientals.  I thought, gee, he doesn't really look Japanese...and he wasn't, for this character is played by Eugene Kim.  Note, don't confuse the American Eugene Kim, left, with the Korean Eugene (Yoo Jin) Kim, right.

Hollywood-ending this was not, but both individuals went home wiser and more mature.  No, not the female Kim, but the American one, plus his Japanese cousin who went back home to run a sake factory.

Turkey meal #2 occurred last night at the home of Pearl's sister Doris and her family:


Not only turkey, which was Butterball, but sashimi, assorted vegetables and spare ribs.  I brought  a bottle of Tedeschi's Ulupalakua Red from Maui, which is a blend of Syrah, Merlot and Malbec.

Following up on Turkey #1 yesterday, Bruce Liebert referred me to a professional clip on how, really, to roast a turkey.  First of all, the comparison with my beginner's guide is unfair, for ThermoWorks CEO Randy Owen uses the latest technology.  My oven is more than 30 years old, but worse, I have no idea how to use it.  Further, he adds Parsley, Sage, Rosemary and Thyme, favored by the top chefs, but anathema to me.    I have several more criticisms, but let me just add one more:  He turns the pan 180 degrees after an hour.  That should not be necessary if he uses a 21st century oven.  That step could be risky, especially if you  happen to be a female doing this alone or an older person lacking in some coordination, like me.  Just basting is hazardous enough.

Bruce is a turkey expert, but, more than that, is a PhD mechanical engineer who is more familiar with heat transfer and thermodynamics than me.  Further, he is Bailli Provincial (grand poobah in Hawaii) of Chaine des Rotisseurs, an eating society that is almost a thousand years old.  Bruce on the left with his major professor from Stanford, Bob Huggins at Michel's.

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Tropical Cyclone Lehar popped up in the Indian Ocean and will attain Category 3 status before weakening and striking India on Wednesday:


The death toll for Super Typhoon Haiyan passed 5,000, with 1,611 missing.  More than four million people were displaced.  The current estimated damage is around $300 million.

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วันอาทิตย์ที่ 24 พฤศจิกายน พ.ศ. 2556

TURKEY #1


I will have four turkey meals during the Thanksgiving season.  This all began yesterday, a tradition I initiated in 2009, as covered by the Huffington Post:

 How to Roast a Turkey

I have refined my cooking technique, especially for the stuffing.  Most recipes use any combination of cloves, celery, bay leaves, parsley, thyme, rosemary, sage and day-old bread.  I used none of those ingredients.  Here is my secret formulation (which I just perfected):
  • Chop up the gizzard (I have an aversion to organs in general and threw away the heart, liver, neck and rear--and this package, by the way, is really hard to find, hidden in a crevice inside the neck--and, incidentally, these various pieces together are called giblets...the gizzard is kind of a second stomach for birds to grind seeds), and fry in truffle oil and butter with some pieces of foie gras (yes, an organ, but his is goose liver).
  • Pre-cook the rice (to replace the bread--I've always had the uncomfortable feeling that stuffing consisted of really old bread).  I chose two kinds of brown rice, regular and sweet.
  • To the rice, add a small can of corn with the liquid.
  • Chop up onions and water chestnuts, mix with rice.
  • Add pieces of macadamia nuts and pine nuts (skip the latter if you wish, for just a tiny packet costs $7).
  • Add a couple of teaspoons of sake.
  • Add a little bit of salt, some black pepper and a tablespoon of Red Devil hot sauce.
  • No, Prozac is not one of my ingredients, but something to consider for the future.
The turkey part is a slam-dunk (remember, there are only three colors:  white is not ready, black is burnt and brown is the objective):
  • Purchase the cheapest turkey you can find, and this year, Foodland gave me a gift just under 13 pounds, for free.  I noticed that most of the turkeys were 14.5 pounds plus or minus a pound, so it was difficult to find a fowl that small.  Then, after I brought it home, I wondered if this was a stunted deviation from the norm.
  • I got this fowl the day before, and it was frozen.  So I placed it in a bucket of brine.  But it kept floating, so, I smartly filled a pot with water and placed it on top and kept it in submerged overnight.
  • I largely followed the Wayside Inn instructions on roasting a turkey from Mary and Vincent Price's A Treasury of Great Recipes, printed in 1965.  And, yes, believe it or not, this is THE Vincent Price of movie fame.
  • Of course, I still have no idea which setting to use on my oven (click on the above, for it's hard to tell if you use this appliance only once a year).  There are too many dials and options with no instructions.  I arbitrarily set it to what could have been "convection oven" because some fan came on, but am not sure because I'm not certain exactly where OFF is located (I see OFF, but as the knob circles, nothing happens until you adjust the temperature. and I couldn't tell exactly where 325 F was,  However, there was this ancient oven thermometer, and after the pre-heating stage, it sort of read something slightly over 300 F.
  • I rubbed truffle butter, salt and pepper on the skin, and placed an eighth of a pound of soft  butter below the turkey in the pan.
  • I kept basting every half an hour, but had some concerns that the whole roasting process took only 2.5 hours (it should have been 3-4 hours for this size, but I thought perhaps the convected air--I'm a chemical engineer--would hasten the process), and, in any case, that red plastic thing (in Year One, I had no idea what this was, so, with great difficulty I pried it out for fear it would melt) popped up and the skin looked perfectly brown.

My first real turkey meal of the season:


A large tomato, onion and cabbage salad and bottle of 2007 Trione Cardinal Cuvee from Alexander Valley. accompanied the main course.  This red is very similar to a Bordeaux, with 57% Carbernet, 35% Merlot, 4% Petit Verdoc and 4% Malbec.  I watched LSU stifle Johnny Manziel and beat Texas A&M.  No cranberry jelly nor yam because I figure everybody else would be serving those sides.  Also on TV, the University of Hawaii football team lost its 11th straight game, at Wyoming, for the second week in a  row in overtime.  However, later in the evening, the Rainbow Wahine volleyball team took revenge on Cal State at Northridge.  The Hawaii team has won 20 games, lost only 4, and is rated #10 in the nation by RPI rating (not worth explaining).  They also celebrated senior (half the team is graduating) night.  Oh those leis:


Emily Hartong is their All-American, Dave Shoji has been coaching for 39 years and the fans said thank you.

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วันเสาร์ที่ 23 พฤศจิกายน พ.ศ. 2556

ENERGY SELF-SUFFICIENCY FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII

Yesterday, I featured five books with which I am associated, Today, Energy Self-Sufficiency for the State of Hawaii. a book prepared by a class I taught at the University of Hawaii in 1978, just before the Second Energy Crisis.  These 70 students represent the best of what a college class can accomplish (I sometimes wonder if I could have done more if I kept teaching instead of becoming an administrator?):
  • Wrote a book, which became the standard text for high schools throughout the state.
  • Made the feature presentation at a National Science Foundation Science for Citizens gathering at the State Capitol in Honolulu.
  • Having mesmerized the mayors of each island at this conference, a team of these students provided a one-hour skit/program to schools and the general community on the Big Island, Maui, Kauai, Oahu, Lanai and Molokai, paid for by the various counties.
  • Bill Noller, a student who edited the publication, was hired by State Senator T.C. Yim (who was the undisputed lead for any energy legislation in the State Legislature), to be his staff specialist on energy.  Some notable pieces of energy legislation became law in 1979 and 1980, for, fortuitously, another energy crisis arrived in 1979.
If you haven't taught a university course, you can't truly appreciate these achievements.  Here, students compiled an actual book, obtained National Science Foundation funding to publish it and toured the State of Hawaii to educate the public on energy self sufficiency.  I might mention that a key interface to these activities was Judy Collins (who was then on the staff at the University of Hawaii), one of the co-founders of the Triathlon, which I featured last month.  Here she is 35 years later with her husband (John, who was her co-founder).

What did these students predict?


  • Net energy self-sufficiency for the State of Hawaii by the year 2025, including jet fuel.  While this is way too optimistic, at least the students guessed closer to reality than a 1977 Hawaii State Legislature report (right), which predicted attainment of Hawaii energy self-sufficiency in 2010 (although not including jet fuel). 
  • The state population, which was 868,500 in 1979, will be 1,226,000 in 2000 (it was 1.212 million), and will rise to 1,497,300 in 2020 (looks to be on track).
  • Interesting that they thought that in 2020 5% of the electricity on Oahu would come from OTEC.   This could well happen.
A few other notes:
  • The cover was designed by Clyde Tamaru.
  • We got sued by Sidney Harris from American Scientist for using his cartoons without permission.  I ended up sending him a $100 check for his approval.  Here is a typical Harris:

This might be difficult to read, but here is my Foreword from the book:


If you know people mentioned here, please send them this posting, for I'd like to hear from those students and collaborators identified above.  I wonder what they're doing today?

How is Hawaii actually doing today?  I can't seem to find a 2013 figure, but I would guess we might be in the range of 10% energy self-sufficient.  We pay a bill of at least $5 billion/year just for imported petroleum.  In 2008 (when Hawaii was 92.2% away from energy independence), Governor Linda Lingle signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the U.S. Department of Energy to gain 70% energy self-sufficiency by 2030.  The terms were amorphous, as there was no clarity about ground nor air transport.  I suspect they were only agreeing on electricity,  Read my HuffPo of 2010 on:

     Hawaii:  The Proposed Symbol of Energy Independence

When my students predicted Hawaii becoming energy self-sufficient, they reached out 35 years into the future to 2025.  I would not be surprised if Hawaii attains energy independence in 2048, about 35 years from now.

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วันศุกร์ที่ 22 พฤศจิกายน พ.ศ. 2556

SIMPLE SOLUTIONS, SOLAR/WIND and OTEC

I was this morning searching for something in Amazon.com.com, and stumbled across a page that showed five of my books.  I thought  the prices were hilarious:

SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth

$3.99    Kindle edition
$17.78  Paperback
$17.42  New paperback
$17.43  Used paperback
$65.22  New paperback



SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity

$3.99    Kindle edition
$22.50  Paperback






SIMPLE SOLUTION Essays

$3.99    Kindle edition
$22.50  Paperback
$21.84  New paperback
$38.74  Used paperback (note, the used is 
                more expensive)


Solar/Wind Handbook for Hawaii (650 pages, with Waqidi Falicoff and George Koide--granted, it's more than a third of a century old, but this is a historic antique and a true bargain)

$20       Hardcover, but there is only one
               copy left!




Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (with Andrew Trenka,  this UNESCO book is 17 years old, but nothing much has changed)

$2420   New
$2396   Used

Anybody want my copy?

Someday, I'll tell the story of each book.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average again broke its all-time record today, up 55 to 16,065, plus the Standard & Poor's 500 Index closed above 1,800 for the first time, up 8.91 to 1804.76.  For the year, the Dow is up 2960 (23%), the S&P up 379 (27%) and Nasdaq up 972 (32%).  Don't worry, be happy, and have a great weekend.

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DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE AT RECORD 16,010, FILIBUSTERS AND JOHN F. KENNEDY

There were two historic events yesterday, and today is the 50th anniversary of a tragedy, the kind that you remembered what you were doing at that moment.  This is Friday, November 22, 2013.

For the first time since the creation of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it ended above 15,999, jumping 109 to 16,010.  Why?

  • The inflation rate is at 1%.
  • Banks therefore are benefited, for they can make money borrowing at short rates and lend at longer rates.  Thus, Bank of America jumped 3% to $15.59.
  • The number filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected.
  • Producer prices dropped, indicating that inflation pressures remain muted.
  • The government shutdown and payroll tax increase did not negatively impact our economy much.
  • The Federal Reserve keeps saying (both incoming Chairwoman Janet Yellen and board members) will keep buying bonds to prop up the economy until it can stand on its own.  When will this be?  Look for a significant correction when this actually happens.
The Dow for the year:


The Dow since the beginning:


The second historic event yesterday was the U.S. Senate restricting filibusters.  Hard to believe, but Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford and Bush the Elder did not have to contend with even one filibuster.  Clinton had 9 and Bush the Younger 7.  Barack Obama?  72!  That's Majority Leader Harry Reid pointing out this nonsense.  Until yesterday, anything in the U.S. Senate could be stopped if the majority party did not have 60 votes.  Now, only a simple majority of 51 can pass legislation.  Well, not quite, as the Democrats made this change only for Senate confirmation of presidential appointments.  The minority can still filibuster for other issues.  While the Republicans were pissed, I guess Democrats are confident that they will remain in control of the Senate and White House for the foreseeable future.  Sure they can rescind this move later after passing through all those judges, but eschewing the notion of this being a gentlemen's club, the nuclear option was finally used, and Republicans can now do whatever they want when they someday get back into power.

It was around 9AM in the morning of 22November1963 when I was walking to the Hawaiian Agriculture Company sugar factory when someone told me that President John F. Kennedy had been shot.  I was not all that much interested in politics in those days, but do remember the shock and my grief.  That was exactly half a century ago.


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วันพฤหัสบดีที่ 21 พฤศจิกายน พ.ศ. 2556

BASKETBALL, CHESS AND MILEY CYRUS

A few recent highlights you might have missed:

1.  As a freshman at the University of Wisconsin at LaCrosse, 5' 10' Jack Taylor averaged 7 points/game.  He was recovering from a serious knee ailment.  However, he noticed that Grinnell was #1 in NCAA scoring for 17 out of the past 19 seasons, with a game average of 126.2 in 2003-4 (Grinnell is putting up 127 points/game this year), and they were recruiting him too.  So he transferred.  This past week he scored 109 points against Faith Baptist Bible College before 951 fans.  However, last year he had 138 points against Crossroads College, the highest ever for any organized basketball player.  The best in the NBA was the 1962 100-point performance of Wilt Chamberlain, while in 1983 the Detroit Pistons and Denver Nuggets scored a total of 370 points (in triple overtime).

2.  Surely, you are familiar with these names:  Spassky, Fisher, Kasparov.  A new world chess championship will almost surely be won by 22-year old Magnus Carlsen of Norway.  He is in Chennai (formerly Madras) competing against 43-year old Viswanathan Anand, and after eight games, Carlsen leads 6-3 with three games to go.  All he needs is to tie one more game.  Go to Chess.com for details.  The times are confusing, but 2 AM Pacific Time (or 4AM Hawaii time) on November 21 is 10 PM Chennai time on the same day.



The female side of chess is a bit debatable, for the top rated player for the past 20 years has been Judit Polgar, who does not stoop to compete for this title.  Are men superior in chess?  Polgar only ranks #58 on the world list.

The current women's champ is 19-year old Hou Yifan of China, who first won this title when she was 16.  Hou and Polgar (yes, they played against each other, and Hou won) above.

I should indicate that in 1997 Deep Blue of IBM beat Gary Kasparov, 3.5 to 2.5.  Can you imagine how much more capable a computer is today, 16 years later?  Today, the top humans can't beat a dedicated computer, but do well against a standard portable like Air Mac with a chess ap.  This will soon change.  For those interested, try Mac Chess Explorer.

3.  The publishers of the Oxford English Dictionary just released the top three Words of the Year:
  • selfie:  a self portrait from a smart-phone shared over social networks (I almost selfied myself, but just couldn't)
  • twerk:  a sexually suggestive type of dancing, usually by a female, where buttocks shake and two other body parts jiggle, tongue optional (here is Miley Cyrus twerking)
  • bitcoin:  see my posting of November 16
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Hawaii is voggy (the emission from that volcanic eruption 200+ miles away on the Big Island), now been going on for more than 30 years, resulting in interesting sunsets (telephoto taken from my apartment roof--surely looks like Mars):


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วันพุธที่ 20 พฤศจิกายน พ.ศ. 2556

TWO VIEWS ON DOOMSDAY

The matter of doomsday kind of reminds me of religion and politics.  Capable and intelligent minds sincerely can have polar opposite views on the reality of an afterlife or the seriousness of global warming.  There are divers reasons, but it mostly boils down to semantics and attitude.

For example, if our lifestyle significantly declines, say, from climate change and Peak Oil, an individual can understandably feel that this is just a natural evolution to which society must optimally adjust, and, by the way, every effort should be made to prepare the masses for this eventuality.  Don't confuse the public with false hopes such as fusion or alien signals from outer space.  How is it possible for another observer to feel that, no, that is some form of negative doomsday perspective and that solutions should be developed to insure for a more favorable future?

He will inform me if I have misunderstood the substance, but I think that is the crux of the issue between a biochemical engineer (me) and a political scientist (Jim Dator, although I know of physicists and other scientists who carry Jim's general view).

Jim and I are close colleagues and we first worked together nearly 40 years ago on a NASA educational project called "Earth 2020:  Visions for Our Children's Children."  I came up with Earth 2020 and the wife of the director the Ames Research Center contributed the theme.  Anyway, in 1974 I was a new Assistant Professor of Engineering on the Manoa Campus of the University of Hawaii, while Jim was already a respected Futurist and lead for this course.

We are both optimists, but we don't share similar visions about our future and how to get there.  I thus thought it might be worth a discussion on the matter of what we all should be doing in anticipation of the next century, with doomsday or not.  I am replaying Henry Curtis' blog, Ililani, but let me start first with some background of Jim Dator from Wikipedia:

Jim Dator is a Professor and Director of the Hawai'i Research Center for Futures Stuides, Department of Political Science, and Adjunct Professor in the Program of Public Administration, the College of Architecture, and the Center for Japanese Studies, of the University of Hawai'i at Mā; Co–Chair, Space and Society Division, International Space University, Strasbourg, France; former President, World Futures Studies Federation; Fellow, World Academy of Art and Science. He also taught at Rikkyo University (Tokyo, for six years), the University of Maryland, Virginia Tech, the University of Toronto, and the InterUniversity Consortium for Postgraduate Studies in Dubrovnik, Yugoslavia. He received a BA in Ancient and Medieval History and Philosophy from Stetson University, and MA in Political Science from the University of Pennsylvania, and a Ph.D. in Political Science from The American University. He did post graduate work at Virginia Theological Seminary (Ethics and Church History), Yale University (Japanese Language), The University of Michigan (Linguistics and Quantitative Methods), Southern Methodist University (Mathematical Applications in Political Science). He is a Danforth Fellow, Woodrow Wilson Fellow, and Fulbright Fellow. He consults widely on the futures of law, governance, tourism, and space.


Friday, November 15, 2013


Interview with Dr. Patrick Kenji Takahashi

By Henry Curtis


Patrick Kenji Takahashi  co-founded the Pacific International Center
for High Technology Research (PICHTR). For a decade Dr. 
Takahashi served as the Director of the University of Hawai`i’s 
Hawaii Natural Energy Institute (HNEI).

In 1992 he was the principal investigator of a blue-ribbon 
panel convened by the National Science Foundation (NSF) 
and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 
(NOAA)  to develop a national plan for ocean resources, 
and produced U.S. Ocean Resources 2000.


He has published more than a hundred scientific papers and 
written four books including Simple Solutions for Planet Earth.



Who influenced you in your early life?

My older brother was at the University of Michigan when I 
was a senior at McKinley High School, so I applied to 
Michigan, and added Stanford and Cal Tech to the list.  
Then, he moved to California, so I chose Stanford because 
they "paid" more.  

I did not learn this until even later in life, but my father's father 
helped build a 3MW hydroelectric facility at Wainiha on 
Kauai.  I visited this site recently and it is still producing 
that same 3MW 107 years later.  So, I guess he was the 
first of our family to get into the sustainables.  It is still 
remembered as the Takahashi Powerhouse to really old 
timers (only one remains alive in the town of Kilauea, 
adjacent to Wainiha.)

What was your focus before you got into the energy field?

My first job after graduating from Stanford was with 
C. Brewer in biomass engineering:  I was the process 
engineer for Hutchinson Sugar Company in Naalehu, 
the southernmost community in the USA.

How did you first get involved in energy?

After a few years with C. Brewer, they actually sent me 
to graduate school at LSU because of their sugar program.  
I talked C. Brewer into allowing me to get a PhD in 
biochemical engineering.   However, when I got my degree, 
I joined the College of Engineering at the University of 
Hawaii.  I produced a summer report for them the next year 
on biomass engineering and they forgave whatever they 
covered through graduate school.

While at the UH, my first assignment was as reservoir 
engineering for the Hawaii Geothermal Project.  In 
parallel, because there was no one else, I became 
the wind energy "expert," and actually chaired the 
Windpower Division of the American Solar Energy 
Society in the mid-70's.  During the second energy 
crisis I joined the staff of Senator Spark Matsunaga in 
DC and helped pass original bills in OTEC, wind energy 
and hydrogen.

What people, books, movies, or other sources did you find 
especially important in understanding energy?

From the early '70's, we were the pioneers in the field and 
there was no book or movie on renewable energy.

How has your background helped you prepare for 
your role in transforming Hawai`i's energy picture?

We had to invent everything along the way and I'm not sure 
we have done all that much in transforming Hawaii 
towards sustainability.  On the other hand, government provides 
funds to universities to do what companies won't.  Very few 
first time technologies initially work.  Very few of ours did.  
That iPhone you own has been through a thousand 
generations of failure in Apple's lab.  Energy technologies 
are very expensive and it takes time to become commercially 
reliable.

What are you most proud of?

Through our efforts, the University of Hawaii became a global 
leader in various key sustainable areas:  Department of 
Energy National Center for Hydrogen R&D
Department of Interior National Marine Minerals Technology 
Center, National Science Foundation Marine Bioproducts 
Engineering Center.  The seed I helped plant that will have the 
greatest long-term benefit to Hawaii, Planet Earth and Humanity 
I think is the Blue Revolution.

How serious a threat do you believe climate change is?

I am sufficiently concerned that something potentially 
cataclysmic is happening, so steps should be taken now to 
prevent our losing control.  It is clear that industry 
is fighting remediation to continue to maximize their profits, 
and they have convinced our U.S. Congress to waffle on 
the subject.  This is perpetuated because climate change is 
so slow that decision-makers don't feel compelled to 
take action.  However, this is not one of those issues where 
one state or country can lead the way.  The whole world 
has to agree together, and the U.S., China and India are large 
enough to stand in the way of progress.

Are you optimistic that we can avert the worst impacts?

In the 70's, all at once, we had acid rain, we lost the 
Vietnam War, suffered through two energy crises, were 
facing the explosion of a Population Bomb and were 
worried about Limits to Growth.  Somehow, without doing 
much in way of international agreements, we overcame.  
Will global warming and Peak Oil be yet another set of 
fears mostly hyped by the media where Mankind somehow 
survives?  Let's see, there is no way of sensibly answering 
this question, so let me evade it by saying that at least I'm 
writing books, giving talks and posting blogs that attempt 
to provide solutions.

Anything else that you would like to add?

Keep up the good work of informing the public.  One wishes 
there was an effective way for society to more smartly and 
effectively plan for our future. However, things take time.  As 
screwed up as our government is, and how worrisome it is 
that our American/Hawaiian lifestyle is actually 
retrogressing, our country remains the only supreme power.  
Europe is a basket case, China is falling apart, Russian is 
getting old and Japan might never recover from Fukushima.  
We today live as well as humanity ever has since the beginning 
of our existence.

#    #    #

Comment from Jim Dator

Thank you for publishing this interview with Pat Takahashi. He is 
one of my local heroes. I had the opportunity to work with 
him on various projects in the 1970s. I follow his writing 
closely now and greatly admire his work and boundless 
compassion.

Much of what Pat wrote is inspiring and helpful, but the 
following sentence is profoundly misleading in my judgment:

In the 70's, all at once, we had acid rain, we lost the 
Vietnam War, suffered through two energy crises, were 
facing the explosion of a Population Bomb and were 
worried about Limits to Growth.  Somehow, without doing 
much in way of international agreements, we overcame.  

In my understanding, we absolutely did NOT “overcome” 
these problems. For the most part we denied them, 
pilloried and marginalized those (like Pat) who continued to 
try to get the word out about them, and thus have placed 
all of those problems squarely in the present—where we 
said, in the 1970s, they would be if we did not address them 
then, which we did not.  

The “overcoming” of those realities and their replacement by 
neoliberal economic fantasies which still bewitch us was the 
result of massive spending by vested interests in 
sophisticated disinformation, on the one hand, and the 
removal from positions of effective policy-influence of people 
like Pat and others who tried to speak reason to greed, on the 
other.

However, the following sentences distress me even more, if
Pat uttered them as written:

Will global warming and Peak Oil be yet another set of 
fears mostly hyped by the media where Mankind somehow 
survives? Let's see, there is no way of sensibly answering 
this question, so let me evade it by saying that at least I'm 
writing books, giving talks and posting blogs that attempt 
to provide solutions

The evidence of the reality of global warming now and 
its probable future severe trajectories is so overwhelming 
that I am stunned that Pat would suggest the issue is 
uncertain in anything but very specific details.

Similarly, Peak Oil is obviously already here or we would 
be not engaged in even more environmentally-damaging and 
net-energy consuming acts of desperation such as fracking and 
increased coal burning, with conventional oil production 
sloping downward (aided by lowered demand during the 
continuing recession to be sure).

Both Pat and I are congenitally cock-eyed optimists. We 
see the possibilities of bright futures for everyone. We don’t 
like to dwell on bad things, no matter how real they might be. Of 
course, "Mankind somehow survives"! But there are many 
different forms of "survival".

In my view, Pat encourages false hope for the 
re-emergence and continuation of The American Way of Life 
into the foreseeable future. He discourages us from 
preparing for deepening energy, environmental, 
economic, and governance failures as we wait for the 
technological and policy miracles he hopes for. By denying 
the present existence and possible emerging severity of these 
challenges, he encourages us to drift into the very future he 
(and I) do not want--survival raw in tooth and claw.

 My optimism is based on the belief (perhaps equally 
misguided) that humans—especially those in Hawaii where 
we are so exceptionally vulnerable)—can face the truth if it is 
told to us honestly, so that we might then prepare for and 
indeed embrace the consequences of surviving and thriving 
a very different future with enthusiasm, optimism, and thus 
success.

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  1. I could provide counterpoints to much of Jim's concerns, for he must have uncharacteristically missed some of my purposeful shadings, but, we've (specifically, Jim 
    and Pat) been going in tiny and large circles 
    around these issues for decades, and, while he, 
    and many other colleagues, too, seem to feel that 
    our primary task should be to educate the public 
    to better accommodate and appreciate these 
    coming lifestyle paradigm shifts from almost 
    certain doomsday of some sorts, the fact of the 
    matter is that the USA has prevailed as the only 
    supreme power on Planet Earth, and will continue 
    to stumble along as #1 for the next century at 
    least, while much of the populated world more 
    and more will most probably suffer. While I'm 
    not exactly holding my breath for any 
    monumental breakthroughs to occur in my 
    lifetime--perhaps our country can eventually get our 
    act together, the equivalent of an Andromeda 
    strain might wipe out 80% of of us, maybe fusion 
    will actually work, or the Blue Revolution will serve 
    to minimize the transition agony while we over 
    time drop to a more sustainable world population of 
    a billion or two. If smarter people than me, Sagan 
    and Drake, for example, can fashion their dreams 
    and lifetime careers on the possibility of useful 
    incoming signals from extraterrestrials--as I too, by 
    the way, dabbled in at NASA's Ames Research Center
    --I would rate some of these above delirious transpirations as less fanciful. It's really unfair to call 
    my efforts at finding solutions an exercise in 
    spreading false hopes. At least I'm trying as best I 
    can, And, yes, I remain hopeful.



    I WELCOME YOUR PERSONAL COMMENTS ON HOW BEST TO DEVELOP OUR FUTURE.


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