ACTUALLY, IT'S GOING TO BE A GOOD YEAR FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY: Part 3--Biomass and Biofuels

This is the third part of my renewable energy year end summary.  Today, biomass, and really, for this particular form, the news is not particularly good.  Let's start with how much more biomass is used compared to geothermal, solar and wind:

(If you can't read those numbers, just click on what is called a spaghetti graph.)  I'll continue this series with ocean energy, hydroelectricity, nuclear power, hydrogen and more exotic options first thing next year.

Starting with some positives:

  -  there are nearly one million pounds of biomass growing for each human being

  -  25,000 EJ = energy stored in terrestrial biomass (plus there is aquatic biomass)

  -  3,000 EJ/year = rate of additional energy storage/year by land biomass

  -  400 EJ/year = TOTAL consumption of ALL forms of energy

Thus, there is a lot of biomass growing on Planet Earth.  That is at least one piece of good news.  However...

Biomass Industry 2012 Review: A Mixed Bag

The dominant, and negative, theme this year was regulatory uncertainty by the Environmental Protection Agency.  Worse was the abundance of natural gas from fracking.

Can you believe that the largest commercial biomass electrical generation facility (above)  was dedicated this year, in Nacogdoches, Texas?  The largest and only 100 MW, which cost $500 million.  Alas, it has been shut down since September because of that fracking natural gas.

A positive about biomass is something I would not have expected.  Biomass crops are now being pelletized in America (above) and sold to Europe.  The Continent, bless their souls, is environmentally progressive, and is actually converting coal boilers to burn biomass, and pellets to them makes sense.  The point is, of course, that coal is bad and biomass is carbon neutral, meaning the plant took carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere to make biomass.  Ah, but this can happen when you try something new.

Two months after commissioning, the largest of those biomass fed electricity facilities suffered a terrible fire, losing two of the three production units.  That's not all, unfortunately.  Belgium's 590 MW coal-to-biomass plant experienced a major fire, the 810 MW biomass facility in Denmark was stricken by one in the conveyor system, and closed down.  Plus this happened to a green pellet operation near London (right).

Are you getting an impression that anytime you try to burn biomass, you can't control it?  There are various reasons, but when I worked in the sugar industry, we were plagued by something called spontaneous combustion.  The combination of moist bagasse and the natural oxidative self-heating of this material resulted in a lot of fires during the offseason.  Our worst nightmare was trying to restart a sugar factory with no bagasse.

Even in Hawaii, biomass to electricity is not exactly embraced by the people.  I've received several pleas from local leaders living in Pepeekeo to help stop the 21.5 MW Hu Honua Bioenergy Project.  The facility itself is 1.7 miles outside of the village, but emotions are high.  I suggested that this was better than coal, and for the community to gain some concessions from the operators, such as a lower electricity rate, for Hawaii needs to get serious about shifting away from fossil fuels.  However, I can understand their plight, for the emissions from the stacks are an environmental hazard.  Although this project will use trees, when I worked for C. Brewer, cane fires meant a lot of ash in the air and hordes of fleeing rats.

Want more bad news?  The state of Massachusetts released standards requiring biomass plants to generate power at at least 50% efficiency for only half the renewable energy credit (REC), and 60%+ for the full REC.  Massachusetts is the grinch, but the only state so far.

Anyway why waste biomass for electricity when our greater need is transport fuel.  The worst of all, of course, is to process biomass into a liquid fuel, then combust this liquid to produce electricity.  I could say dumb, dumb, dumb.  But some utilities took this pathway, and no surprise at all, couldn't find a competitive supplier, so they converted to some cheaper fossil fuel option, getting around certain environmental/carbon dioxide restrictions.  Smart, smart, smart...but conniving.

So let's start with bioethanol, which now accounts for 10% of U.S. gasoline consumption, up from 1% in 2001.  Expect a drop, if not precipitously, because the federal tax credit was not renewed this year.  In this interim, our taxes paid $20 billion to oil companies and large ag operations.  Mind you, I gladly spend around $400/gallon for the ethanol in scotch, so this biofuel does have redeeming virtues.

In Hawaii, Aina Kono Pono, for example, proposed a biomass to electricity and biofuels project in Kau, specifically at the factory site of my first job after graduating from college.  The Public Utilities Commission turned it down because it was too expensive.  The company said their fuel would only add a third of a cent per kilowatt hour to rates, but, the reality is that this first effort will not be able to produce a liquid biofuel for under $2/gallon.  I think $4/gallon would be difficult.  The company filed a second attempt in August of this year, and the "people" remain against it!  I think the main reason is that they fear their electricity bill will further increase.  At some point the consumer will need to want to sacrifice for a greener environment, but the day is not yet here, especially when the current residents of the Big Island ALREADY PAY 250% the national average.  However, if the focus is changed to ONLY biofuels, then the market will decide the fate.  But to repeat, what worries me about this process is that Microwave Catalytic Depolymerization sounds awfully energy intensive, and therefore expensive.  But they should know what they're doing, so the PUC should wish them well.

Moving on--and, honest, I AM PRO-BIOFUELS--the green idiot, or hero, depending on how you look at this, is the U.S. military.  Yes, they should take a pioneering attitude on this transition, but for the U.S. Navy to pay $28/gallon for biofuel (from a range of sustainables ranging from chicken fat to algae to whatever), during a portion of their RimPac exercises in Hawaii, ticked off the Republicans, and I don't blame them for trying to prohibit this extravagant practice.  One rejoinder was that fuel can cost $400/gallon in remote regions, so anything cheaper than that locally produced can be a priority need.  Sure...maybe for ethanol imbibition...but there are smarter ways to use government funds.

Certainly, there is too much of an emphasis on electricity, and we need to do a lot more for liquid biofuels.  But a steady billion dollars/year for research into biomethanol and the direct methanol fuel cell can get us closer to ground transport sustainability than continuing to support a flawed bioethanol pathway and paying exorbitant sums for ridiculously expensive exotic options.  Sure, also spend the money on genetic engineering to improve bioconversion science and solidify the engineering fundamentals for the production of algae, but how our country did everything wrong in this field is criminal.  My views can be found in the following Huffington Post articles:

Biofuels from Microalgae (Part 1)

A Solution for the American Auto Industry

Is There An Option More Promising Than The Plug-In Electric Vehicle?

Ethanol Vs. Methanol

The next of this renewable energy series will be on ocean energy, early next year.

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There is a looming cyclone forming south of the Solomons, but there should be no danger to populated islands.

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ACTUALLY, IT IS GOING TO BE A GOOD YEAR FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY: Part 2--Wind Energy

I'll today only focus on wind power.  Much of the following is from Renewable Energy News.

• There has been a boom in wind energy activity to get under the wire before the Production Tax Credit (PTC) expires.  A healthy 4,500 megawatts of new wind capacity were added just in the first three quarters of this year, bringing our total up to more than 50 GW (1 GW = 1000 MW), the equivalent of 50 nuclear powerplants (again, though, nuclear and geothermal have a load--or power or capacity-- factor of 90%, while that of wind energy is, optimistically between 20 and 40%, while that of solar photovoltaics is 10-20%).  There will be a wind growth factor of 16% this year.  Coal capacity is today at 339,000 MW, but 27,000 MW will be retired by 2016.  Just wait until the carbon tax is enacted, and this drop might well become a cliff. 

While windmills have been around for centuries, the technology continues to improve, with General Electric (Can you believe they invented the modern wind turbine generator?) expecting to reduce blade costs up to 40% in three years.  That roto to the right from Siemens is being used by a 6 MW wind energy conversion device in Denmark.  Yes, those are real people.  How big is this machine?

That Airbus 380 just happens to be the largest airplane today, capable of carrying from 450 to 800 passengers.  I have a flight scheduled on it in April from Bangkok to Narita.

The largest operating wind mill is in Germany (left), 7 MW from a diameter of 413 feet.  Norway is building a 10 MW (475 feet diameter) monster.  Yes, these wind generators are getting colossal.

Around the world, Europe is up to 100,000 MW:  Germany 30,000 MW, Spain at 22,000 MW, Italy 7,200 MW, France 7,180 MW, UK 6,480 MW and Portugal 4,900 GW.  As a means of comparison, Hawaiian Electric Company averages around 1000 MW (on Oahu).  Offshore installations are picking up, as the London Array Offshore Wind Farm has now installed 630 MW.  These European wind energy farms produce as much electricity as 62 coal power plants, 39 nuclear PP or 52 natural gas PP.  

China added 5,400 MW in the first half of this year, and is now up to 68,000 MW.  Note that the USA has less wind capacity than Europe or China.

So how goes Hawaii?  Well, we just about killed the combined 400 MW wind farms on Lanai and Molokai.  The local people are opposed, plus that undersea cable will cost a billion or two.  A 69 MW field has just begun producing electricity on the North Shore five miles from Haleiwa and the farm at Kaheawa on Maui got up to 51 MW this year:

However, the really bad news is that Vestas has already cut 1500 wind manufacturing jobs in Colorado for fear of the PTC expiring.  There is some mild optimism that an extension will be included in the Fiscal Cliff agreement, but there remains high uncertainty.  Geothermal has till all of next year, and, anyway, there is some higher hope that "something" will be done next year to adjust the language to at least changing the requirements from electricity production to "official planning."  Solar incentives are protected into 2016.

Tomorrow I'll complete this analysis with biomass, ocean energy and hydroelectricity.

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ACTUALLY, IT IS GOING TO BE A GOOD YEAR FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY: Part 1--Solar and Geothermal Energy

The December 20 and 25 issues of Renewable Energy News provided a quick review of the renewables.  I'll survey solar and geothermal today, and summarize windpower, biomass, ocean and hydro tomorrow.

A.  A Look Back at Solar in 2012:  to quote--

     2012 was a big year for solar, both domestically and globally...

According to Tom Kimbis (left) of the Solar Energy Industries Association, this landmark year for growth was not due to technical advancements, but financial innovations, particularly in leasing and third party ownership.  Although the year is not yet over, the new installed solar capacity in the U.S. passed 1992 MW (compared to 1,885 last year, equal to two typical nuclear powerplants--well, not really, because fission electricity is generated pretty much 24 hours/day, while solar averages something below 8 hours/day).  Residential PV installations led the way with someone else owning the system.  However:

    1.  Oversupply of PV panels by China remains a concern.  This practice of dumping led to a decision by the International Trade Administration to levy tariffs ranging from 24% to 36% on these products from China.  There were, thus, a lot of bankruptcies.  Keep in mind, though, that oversupply means lower prices, so buyers are buying now, probably influencing a banner final quarter of this year.  Further, those countries not manufacturing these systems, like developing nations, can take advantage of this "temporary" situation.  

    2.  Solar employment grew by 13%, meaning one out of every 230 new jobs.  

    3.  Saudi Arabia announced $109 billion, 54,000 MW of PV/solar thermal development by 2030.

    4.  These lower PV prices led to predictions that solar thermal would die.  While death itself might be premature, for concentrated solar systems have a storage advantage, there was a definite decline this year.

   5.  Germany will have 7,000 MW of solar by the end of this year, with their 145 MW Neuhardenberg facility being built in five weeks to qualify for government subsidies, which are being cut.

    6.  World PV rankings in 2011 (MW):

         Germany      24,875

         Italy             12,764

         Japan            4,914

         U.S.              4,383

         Spain            4,214

         China            3,093

Seth Masia, editor of SOLAR TODAY provided some useful statistics:

• Solar power is NOW cost-competitive with fossil fuels.
• Spot pricing for silicon modules fell below $1/watt a year ago and will stabilize at 70 cents/watt.
• The Department of Energy's SunShot Program should by 2020 meet the goal of $1/watt INSTALLED!  This is for large utility scale systems.
• Residential systems should then fall to around $2/watt.
• Don't count on any further miracle price drops, for the PV cells themselves are now only around 12.5% the total installed cost.  The bulk of the expenses are due to labor, construction materials, financing, insurance, etc.  These "non-solar" costs will not decrease.
• The U.S. is like a million countries:  each state has different regulations and each community adds to the complexity.  Buyouts will more and more dominate and standardization can only improve over time.

B.  The 2012 Geothermal Industry: Success, Expansion, and Familiar Frustration:   

Karl Gawell, executive director of the Geothermal Energy Association, indicated that the year will be one of the best in the past decade.  100 MW of new geo were brought online.  In the U.S., the Southwest will be the next "greenfields," a term applied to geothermal.

    1.  The U.S. produces more geothermal electricity than any other country with 3,187 MW, and there is planning and/or production in 15 states:

California is #1 with 2,614 MW and Nevada is #2 with 469 MW.  Oregon could well end up #3 shortly, with 109 MW under development, last month bringing online 17 MW.

2.  EnergySource unveiled its $400 million 50 MW geothermal plant in the Imperial Valley (left), the first new plant there in 20 years.  The three wells are deep (7500 feet), but hot (600 F).  The potential for this region is 2000 MW.

    3.  Geothermal energy is baseload (unlike the intermittent sun and winds), so there is a pathfinding experiment going on at the ORMAT geo-plant in Hawaii.  The Big Island sometimes has too much power, so geo is being used to ramp up and down 4 MW as a peaking plant, to provide frequency and voltage control, while minimizing oscillations.

    4.  The hot new areas for geothermal development are East Africa and Indonesia.  The Ring of Fire is dangerous for earthquakes and tsunamis, but this is where temperatures are high and resource accessible:

TOMORROW:  windpower, biomass, ocean and hydroelectricity.

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CHRISTMAS CATS

The morning paper wrote on Sable the cat in the state of Washington.  He daily, even on weekends, serves as the crossing guard mascot of Enterprise Middle School.

One day a few years ago, he jumped over a fence and appeared in the yard of the Morrisons.  They fed him, and he stayed.  Actually, it was only a year ago that this family moved to West Richland, across the street from this school.  To quote:

Each morning and afternoon--in rain, snow or sunshine--the 15-year old cat goes out to watch the school's students wearing a neon orange safety vest...

He earned from the school an "Honorary Safety Patrol Member" certificate.

So is Sable the equivalent of a 105 year old human?  You, know, that 7-year multiplier also applied to dogs?  Here is one estimate:

Cat Age     Human Age

6 months     15 years
1 year           24 years
2 years         28 years
3 years         32 years
4 years         36 years
5 years         40 years
6 years         44 years
7 years         48 years
8 years         52 years
9 years         56 years
10 years       60 years
11 years       64 years
12 years       68 years
13 years       72 years
14 years       76 years
15 years       80 years
16 years       84 years
17 years       88 years
18 years       92 years
19 years       96 years
20 years       100 years

Hmm, 15 year old human at 6 months.  Interesting.  But, according to this table, Sable is "only" 80 years old.

Here is "How to wrap Flippy for Christmas."  This got more than  7 million views, but, alas, Flippy is no longer with us.  And how not to.


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MERRY CHRISTMAS

It's Christmas Eve, and the last thing I want to do is to pile on the manger and more good cheer.  So, I start the final week of 2012 with the "best" music of the year.

First, Carly Rose (anxiously awaiting with Britney Spears), like Susan (with her stunning performance of "I Dreamed a Dream;" plus experience Anne Hathaway's tearful version in Les Miserables, opening tomorrow), Jackie (remember, she was then 10) and Song-Bong, came in second.  Carly Rose will do fine, as have and/or will the other runner-ups.

The viral sensation of the year no doubt was Psy doing Gangnam Style.  More than a billion clicks now (1,040,000000 at this point).  Adele's 21 sold more than 10 million copies, and the following Rolling in the Deep was visited nearly 400 million times.  She was 21 when this album was being produced:

This was a big year for 23 year old Taylor Swift.  Her top hit of the year, We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together, was her first Billboard #1, which just topped 100 million on You Tube.  Her songs seem to be in a rut of bad loves.  Explains all her boyfriends (13 in 4 years).  Ah, I get it!  She uses them to inspire her next song.  The best selling album of 2012 could be Swift's Red, and if not, it will be 21.

Frank Ocean, 25, was once Chrisopher Breaux in New Orleans.  Strange, can't put my finger on it, but last year he plagiarized the Eagle's "Hotel California (here is their 1994 7+ minute version)," calling it American Wedding for his album, Nostalgia.  He soon will be, I think, but has not yet, sued.  His big album this year is Channel Orange.

The song of the year could well be Gotye's (left) Somebody That I Used To Know, approaching 400 million contacts, and covered by Walk Off the Earth, 150 million pings.

Then there was Carly Rae Jepsen's Call Me Maybe (400 million links):

Finally, after all, this is a blog site on Planet Earth and Humanity, death and life, sustainability and peace, progress and freedom.  This half an hour video, KONY 2012, is approaching 100 million looks, but expires at the end of this year.  That is the notorious Joseph Kony to the left.  Who is Jacob?  Click on that link.

Well, this is Christmas Eve, so something more upbeat.  Watch Felix Baumgartner fall 24 miles.

Well, that was kind of boring, actually, so, finally, NORAD tracking Santa.

And speaking of boring, except for Christmas Eve, in 55 years of tracking, the North American Aerospace Defense Command has not detected anything noteworthy, with nothing serious on the horizon into the foreseeable future.  Even the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence teams have only been at it for 52 years.  But something could happen today!  Merry Christmas.

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SUNDAY IN KAKAAKO

Sunday is nostalgia day for me.  Above is my Christmas card to most of you.  I have a cane (see the light?) which I brought back from Machu Picchu, and a safari shirt tailored in Bangkok with four zippered pockets.  You need to put the camera, iPod, money and other stuff somewhere.  I actually have a half dozen of these in different prints, all in really comfortable material.   The cane is a self-preservation device for mauling pit bulls and inconsiderate drivers.  It's surprising how much they honor your crossing the street.  They smile and wave you on.  I cooperate by limping more.

I thought I'd start with Senator Dan Inouye's memorial service at Punchbowl.  I read that you couldn't just walk up to the ceremonies (which were only a short distance from where I live), so I caught a bus to the Alapai Terminal, which was the only official site to get into the crater.  Well, the ceremonies were at 10AM so I got to the bus station at 9AM, and was told that I needed a ticket, but, anyway, the final bus just left.  Huh???  I heard that President and Mrs. Obama were there but he felt it best not to say anything.

Oh well, now what?  What about walking to my old neighborhood, Kakaako?  I tried to find my home, 524A Ahui Street, and the closest I could get was 522 (to the left):

Next, a 5 minute walk got me to the original site of my Pokuhaina Elementary School:

I love that theme:  IF YOU WANT TO ACHIEVE GREATNESS, STOP ASKING FOR PERMISSION!  Well, that campus is no longer there.  It became a school for the handicapped, then, was moved to Kaimuki.  Anyway, 690 Pohukaina, the address of Governor Abercrombie's 600+foot sky rise is right here.  Across the street is another vacant lot:

I'm all for it, but 82% of locals are against building over 400 feet.  Heck, if there is market demand and no earthquake concern, 1000 feet would be fine, as far as I'm concerned.  The Burj Khalifa in Abu Dhabi is 2722 feet tall!  I'm more and more becoming disenchanted that the people of Hawaii have no imagination and zero vision.  We will sink into oblivion unless we make a quantum leap into the future.

I also earlier waved hello to Central Intermediate School, where I spent three of my most immemorable years of my life.

I then walked to the coastline and Point Panic (extreme left), where I once body surfed:

Turning 180 degrees there is Diamond Head:

At this point I notice several large hills.  I don't remember anything like this in Kakaako.  So I walked up one of them and noticed this pipe:

I noticed there was a similar pipe on the the top of all the hills.  Then, my civil engineering expertise came forth and I realized methane was being exhausted.  This whole area was the solid waste site for Honolulu with an incinerator. From this vantage spot into town:

You can see my apartment, about a mile or two in that collage of towers.  And from the tallest hill:

On the way home I thought I'd purchase a sub from Subway to have with the remainder of the Dom Perignon.  These shops are everywhere and seem always to be open.  The one in downtown Honolulu was closed.  So, as I was going by the Safeway, I had an Italian made for me:

That glass was borrowed from the Mauna Kea Beach Hotel 50 years ago.  Hawaii beat East Tennessee State in the Hawaiian Airlines Diamond Head Classic.

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