THE END OF WARS (Part 1)

The following is largely excerpted from SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity:

-

World War Trends

Evolution is a process of survival, and war is just a more organized development to prevail. There no doubt were wars in one million B.C. But something happened to the mind of man, and the greatest strategist of all, Sun-tzu, author of The Art of War, written as far back as the fourth century B.C., hypothesized that the ideal winning strategy was one without bloodshed. But men will be men, and our civilization has been laced with just the opposite. Ah, but there has been progress. It has been reported that 30% of males died in violence during our cavemen-hunter-gatherer days. Since that perilous period, this number dropped to 1% in the 1900’s, and in this 21st Century, perhaps a tenth of that.

In World War I, everyone exploited chemical warfare. The French began the practice, using xylyl bromide tear-gas grenades in 1914. In 1915, chlorine gas was employed by Germany, killing at least 5,000. The British responded in kind. Phosgene came into use by all. In 1917, to slow the Allied advance, mustard (yperite, a carbon, hydrogen, chlorine and sulfur compound) gas was used by Germany, which actually was a liquid, not a gas. The French employed a nerve gas, hydrocyanic acid, spiked with a little arsenic, but not too effectively because, by then, gas masks actually worked. The Americans entered the war quite late, but General John Pershing had available a range of chemical agents.

In this supposed war to end wars, it is estimated that there were 15 million killed, although there are indications that up to 66 million actually died, maybe more from the Spanish Flu than anything else. Many don’t realize that the Russian Civil War, which ran from 1917 to 1922, experienced 9 million deaths, and the Stalin regime eliminated 20 million from 1924 to 1953. Armistice outlawed poison gas in 1925 and the ban worked, as World War II saw no use of chemical warfare.

However, in 2007, it was reported that the British tested mustard gas on Indian soldiers during the 1930s. During the second world war, the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory experimented with Lewisite and mustard gas on 4,000 American personnel, who got special weekend passes if they participated.

World War II had 55 million deaths, or up to 72 million by other accounts. With regard to high technology, the Atomic Bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki killed somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000 people. The world will forever debate whether this was morally right or not, but the devastation ingrained a MAD (mutually assured destruction) mentality that probably served to prevent total nuclear warfare during the Cold War.

Post WWII saw 2.5 million killed in the Chinese Civil War from 1945 to 1949, and Mao Zedong’s reign was responsible for 40 million deaths from 1949 to 1975. For the record, the Korean War (1950-53) lost 3.5 million (33,000 to 54,000 Americans, depending on whom you ask), Vietnam War (1960-75) 5 million (67,000 Americans, including almost 10,000 who committed suicide) and the more recent Kinshasa Congo Civil War has seen 5 million deaths (although 8 million perished from 1886 to 1908) thus far. Total fatalities in the ongoing Afghanistan-Iraq skirmish are reported to be more than 1 million (less than 5,000 American deaths)

-

A GIFT TO PLANET EARTH AND HUMANITY

A miracle has occurred. Many were beginning to contemplate a survival strategy because of the dual hammer of Peak Oil and Global Warming. It is appearing that we are getting a reprieve. This sinking economy, ironically enough, is that gift.

-

The Dow Jones Industrials today opened at 8376 and dropped to 8119, only to rebound to 8637, +261(3%). World markets were all generally in the negative. Crude oil sunk $2.85/barrel further to $40.81. The absolute scary prognostication in Bloomberg is that January delivery will see a price below $20/barrel.

What does this mean? Let us look at some historical consequences. Much of this is detailed in Chapter 1 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth, but the price of gasoline in 1918 adjusted to 2008 dollars was $3.85/gallon. The true value dropped to $1.80/gal until 1973, when the First Energy Crisis increased the price (all the following will also be in 2008 dollars) to $2.30/gal. The Second Energy Crisis of 1979 kicked the price up to $3.17/gal in 1981. Gasoline then continued to drop to $1.35/gal in 1998. That was the absolutely lowest real price of gasoline in history.

On December 5, 2008, gasoline was $1.77/gal for regular and $1.94/gal for premium. On December 4, my daily blog reported that oil traders were purchasing gasoline for January delivery at $0.97/gallon. Today oil is being sold for $0.97/barrel ($40.81/bbl). The predicted $20/bbl crude is equivalent to 47 cents/bbl. Try not to confuse petroleum price per barrel and gasoline price per gallon. There are 42 gallons in one barrel.

The year or two or three after 1973 and 1979 saw major economic declines when oil prices jumped. Oil caused the recessions. When Ronald Reagan became President in 1982 he decimated the solar budget, which only anguished the renewable supporters. He suffered no consequences because, save for an uptick during the First Gulf War in 1991, gasoline prices dramatically dropped (in 2008 dollars) from $3.17/gallon to $1.35/gallon.

Let us now return to July 11, 2008 when oil peaked at $147.27/bbl, causing gasoline to sell for $4.12/gallon on July 17. Note also that gasoline prices react only a week after the highs, but take forever to actually drop. Anyway, gasoline on December 5 was 57% lower than on July 17. Our stock market has only declined around 40%.

This time, then, the economy affected oil prices, as the recession is reducing use, causing an oversupply. Following the First and Second Energy Crises, higher oil prices dampened the economy. As recovery proceeded, relative oil (and gasoline) prices dropped. This time, the question is, will the recovering economy raise oil prices?

We can then expect the following:

1. It is appearing that oil will drop below $30/bbl.

-
2. Gasoline prices could well plunge below $1/gallon. This will be the lowest gasoline will ever be in all of history, even if the decline plateaus at $1.34/gallon.

-
3. If no Solar Manhattan effort occurred in 1982 when gasoline prices were near the modern day high, what are the prospects of anything monumental happening when it will be at an ALL-TIME LOW when Barack Obama becomes President on January 20? Remember, T. Boone Pickens, with all his sincere bluster, abandoned his wind farms when oil was still more than $50/barrel.
-

4. Late in October, OPEC announced a production cut of 1.5 million barrels to 28.8 million barrels/day. What happened? Petroleum prices crashed, just the opposite of all predictions. Before the year is over, another reduction of 2 million barrels/day can be expected. They want oil to at least climb to $75/barrel. That might take even greater cutbacks.
-

5. The economy will recover. It might take all of a year if there is no depression, and, certainly, in 5 years.
-

If, in the meantime, oil will someday rise to $75/barrel, and the slack now available to producers will delay any sudden escalation. However, the surging economies of China, India and rest of the world will almost surely further escalate the price beyond $100/barrel, maybe up to $200/barrel in five to ten years. There is such a thing as Peak Oil, and there is further evidence that the Middle East does not really have as much of this resource as publicized.

All things concerned, this could well be a gift to Planet Earth and Humanity, for Peak Oil will be delayed, carbon dioxide in our atmosphere will be somewhat alleviated and we will have this period to work on sustainable options that can begin to competitively replace fossil fuels in time.

-

Windfarms can generally proceed, but solar photovoltaics and thermal are not quite there yet. The ideal biofuels are not ethanol and biodiesel, so other more promising options such as methanol and the direct methanol fuel cell need at least a decade to develop. Then, there is aviation fuel. Can jet fuel from algae become competitive? Maybe, but that will require at least ten years, if not more. There is no hydrogen jetliner in sight, but the hydrogen dirigible can be readied in a decade or two. The production of clean hydrogen, however, might still be beyond current technology, but, to some degree, it will depend on the actual price of fossil fuels and the seriousness of the Greenhouse Effect.

The following simple solutions can be recommended:

1. Take advantage of this “gift” and comprehensively prepare for a sustainable energy economy.
-

2. Research and development costs a fraction of actual commercial investments, so government should work with industry and academia to plan for, fund and implement a visionary developmental program.
-

3. Work in a growing carbon tax linked to the price of oil. As crude prices increases, so will, thus, this tax. At $30/barrel, something like a 2 cents / pound carbon dioxide tax is significant but tolerable. When oil eventually jumps to $150/barrel, the tax should be proportionately higher, at 10 cents / pound carbon dioxide. The revenues will fund renewable energy programs.
-

4. To kick-off the Planet Earth rescue strategy, immediately add a $1/gallon gasoline investment surcharge (also known as a tax, but the semantics can’t hurt), which will result in nearly $150 million/year, also to be applied to the Obama Sustainable Energy Plan.

-

Let us not miss this opportunity. Accept this miracle and take appropriate action.

-

THE BIG THREE BAILOUT

I'll keep things short today. The Dow Jones Industrials stayed steady for most of the day at around 8500, but in the final hour plus, sank to 8376, a drop of 215 (2.5%) for the day. Canada was also down by the same percentage, but world markets remained relatively stable.

At Senator Chris Dodd's (D-Connecticut) Banking Committee six hour hearing today, he gave the automakers some hope that their requested $34 billion request will pass. However, Republicans are heavily against the bailout and President George Bush is adamant that throwing good taxpayers money at bad Detroit failure could not be justified. The bombshell at the hearing was that Moody's Economic.com chief economist, Mark Zandi, testified that the true cost of this bailout will eventually range from $75 billion to $125 billion.

It was almost comical that, having faced the wrath of Congress last week for using expensive corporate jets, all three CEOs drove their cars from Detroit to D.C., and were planning to drive back. What a waste of their time to prove a point. But that's the way the game has to be played, I guess.

The Congress will vote next week on the rescue plan. The odds somewhat favor the Republicans, with a possible Bush veto, to deny Detroit. However, there is almost certain assurance that the Democratic Congress and White House will pass something early next year.

Remember yesterday when my blog predicted $30/barrel oil by the Spring of 2009? Well, the Dated Brent Spot price is now at $41.38/barrel, a drop of $3.38 today. Can you believe it? Gasoline futures dropped below $1/gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gasoline deliveries in January fell 7% to 97 cents/gallon. I fear the worst for ALL renewable energy projects, even though we know that crude oil will zoom past $100/barrel, maybe as soon as late next year, but, certainly, in 5 years. Let us not be deceived again, please. For the record, gold fell $3/toz to $768.
-

CHAPTER 1. CRIME AND WARS (Part 21)

This final part of my CRIME series is largely excerpted from SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity.

The Simple Solution to Crime

According to a 2005 report of the National Crime Victims’ Rights Week, crime costs Americans somewhere in the range of $500 billion annually. However, in 1999, David Anderson published in the Journal of Law and Economics a paper outlining that the net burden of crime in the U.S. was $1.7 trillion per year, or $5667 for each person in the country. This did not include the physical pain, long-term mental anguish and general fear anyone has about stepping out at night and such. Wouldn’t it be wonderful if we could just eliminate this compromise in our daily life forever? The savings of $1.7 trillion/year would be wonderful, but just the lifestyle enhancement alone would be huge.

Let me be candid by saying that this not my idea, but, if society is willing to stomach some morality issues to prevent crime, what about a real three strikes law. This one is called Three Strikes and You’re Dead (TSAYD)! To repeat, THREE STRIKES AND YOU’RE DEAD.

First conviction: Someone commits a crime. Do everything possible to reform the culprit. Of course, even before the first crime, it is in the upbringing and educational process where people begin to go bad. It would make eminent good sense to spend more tax dollars at this early stage. Reinforcement is provided in Chapter 3. But, regarding the lawbreaker, there are shelves of books with ideas on how to remediate an individual.

One option is restorative justice, promoting repair, reconciliation and the rebuilding of relationships. The process attempts to build partnerships, seeking balanced approaches for victim, wrongdoer and community. There will be a lot of counseling and, as necessary and possible, some restitution. New Zealand legislated in 1989 restorative justice for juvenile crime. Then, there were 64 violations per 1,000 in the population. Today, this figure has dropped to 16.

The concept is hardly new, as the Pentateuch, the so-called books of Moses, advocated compensation for property crimes, as did the Code of Hammurabi (1700 BC). The Code of Ur-Nammu (2000 BC) required amends for violence.

Spend the bigger bucks on shoring up the early life, but be generous, too, on reclaiming this individual after a tolerable first offense. Some crimes aren't. The primary objective will be to prevent those potential second and third crimes. Half of all inmates are back in jail only two years later. A simple way to reduce this rate is to strike fear into the offender so that he abandons all thought of committing another crime. Thus, the penalty for entering stage two should be terrible, if not horrendous.

Crime #2 is committed and the defendant is judged guilty. Standard prison? Nope. Save that money to build better schools. Find some hellacious environment where the prisoner will need to support himself, and where the cost to society will be minimal. A mild form—I was thinking more in terms of dungeons or caves—of this concept is represented by Joe Arpaio, sheriff of Maricopa Arizona County:

○ jail meals, such as bologna sandwich, cost 40 cents/serving, and he charges inmates for them;
○ no smoking, no coffee and no porno magazines;
○ chain gangs to do free work on county projects;
○ took away cable TV, but was forced to put them back because a federal court required that for jails, so he played only the Disney and weather channels, and added Newt Gingrich lectures;

When inmates complained, he told them don’t come back. Two thousand prisoners in tents with no air conditioning, even when the temperature is more than 116 degrees F. Sheriff Joe says that our soldiers in Iraq are in tents where the temperature exceeds 120, in full battle gear.

News flash! Hawaii announced in 2008 that seven prison tents will be built with federal funds. No, they are not following the Arpaio strategy. These will be for minimum custody inmates. But get ready to relocate them to more secure cites if TSAYD is instituted.

The question is, will those who survive be more apt not to return? The answer is, heck, yes, but mostly because of the consequences of a third conviction! Anyway, why waste good money on the hopeless, which is defined as anyone who is stupid enough to commit a second crime knowing that the punishment will be hell. The prison of Sheriff Joe is a reasonable simple solution for strike two. There are harsher, and probably more effective (but illegal and immoral) options, but for now, let us leave them for future consideration.

Third conviction: termination! Yes, death. The U.S. has now had more than 1000 executions since the Supreme Court ended a moratorium three decades ago. Under the TSAYD formula, this number could seriously increase in the first few years, but should decline with time. The odds are astronomically high that crime rates will significantly drop within the decade. Where are the supporting statistics? Probably none. I just feel this way.

Oh yes, there are millions of questions and issues. First, some particularly odious crimes will immediately go to step three, as is the case today. But what about a white collar criminal or traffic violator? Can you execute someone for stealing a chocolate chip cookie or a magazine? You’ve no doubt read of a car thief, who is convicted, convicted mind you, a hundred times (well, I’m not sure what the record is, and I can’t imagine our court system being so efficient as to actually convict the same person this many times), and still somehow runs loose and is arrested for stealing yet another car. Maybe enough should be three convictions for anything. The odds are high that this will all stop after the first arrest. But what about those on drugs who cannot control themselves or the few so idiotic as to absent mindedly commit that third crime? Answering this question will only irritate churches, social workers and mothers.

What about those with mental illnesses? A Bureau of Justice Statistics study reported in 2006 that half of those in jail suffered from mental health problems:

o 73% of females and 55% of males in State prisons,
o 61% female / 44% male in Federal prisons and
o 75% female / 63% male were certifiably sub-normal.

Sounds menacingly Hitleresque, but perhaps an argument can be made that the elimination of this drag on society can only improve the quality of life for the innocent. Former Education Secretary William Bennett, on his radio show, is quoted to have said:

To reduce crime, you could—if that were your sole purpose—you could abort every black baby in this country, and your crime rate would go down…That would be an impossible, ridiculous and morally reprehensible thing to do, but your crime rate would go down.

He said his statement was taken out of context, and many of my simple solutions definitely fall in this framework of being “taken out of context.” Could a “Three Strikes and You’re Dead” law ever be enacted anywhere in the world today? Of course not! But it should be debated and considered, for, perhaps, a compromising intermediary first step might well be universal application of the Sheriff Joe penal system.

Thus, the nature of a human society could well be the primary impediment to ending crime forever. That might well be just and good. Well, let us now go on to something simpler, mega-crimes, or wars. How to prevent them? The solution is surprisingly simple, and not as draconian as TSAYD. Next I begin Part 1 on WARS.

The Dow Jones Industrials today opened at 8409, but immediately dropped to 8234, then slowly climbed to about 8550, declined to below 8300, then, in the final two hours, increased nearly 300, ending at 8592, +173 (+2%). Except for Canada, the world markets all increased. Is this a good time to buy stocks? CNNMoney.com says YES.

Crude oil settled further, down to $46.84/barrel. The Dated Brent Spot is at $44.70/barrel. According to Bloomberg, oil traders are betting that crude oil will drop below $30/barrel in the first quarter of 2009. Gold dropped $2/toz to $772.

Gasoline Prices

NOTE THAT, INSTEAD OF ALPHABETICALLY WAITING, YOU CAN TYPE IN YOUR STATE SYMBOL AT THE BOTTOM, SUCH AS "HI" FOR HAWAII. You can also CLICK on "Gasoline Prices" at the top and go directly to the source. The average national price of gasoline on July 7, 2008 was $4/gallon. Today, it is...CLICK ON THE STATE SYMBOL AT THE BOTTOM...to get $1.80/gallon, for regular.

-

CHAPTER 1. CRIME AND WARS (Part 20)

The following is excerpted from SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity. Tomorrow, in Part 21, I conclude with the simple solution for crime.

-

The Singapore Solution to Crime

In March 2004, Michael Peter Fay, 18, from Missouri and Ohio, pleaded guilty in a Singapore court to vandalism (spray painting cars), mischief and receiving stolen property (No Smoking and No Exit signs). He was sentenced by Judge F. G. Remedios to four months in prison, six strokes of the rattan and a fine of $2230. Fay’s partner, Shiu Chi Ho, 16, of Hong Kong, was given 8 months in jail and twelve strokes of the cane. This is not a slap on the knuckles by a nun wielding a ruler. An official trained in the martial arts, with firm strength, swings a half inch cane, many times causing shock and usually permanent scars. It is reported that around 1000 canings occur every year. There is no graffiti problem here and, furthermore, chewing gum was once banned (lifted in 2004). I think it’s still illegal not to flush a public toilet. You don’t want to be caught for this neglect.

While Americans seemed aghast about Michael, more than half of us in a poll of 23,000 favored whipping and other harsh sentences as an acceptable deterrent to crime in the U.S. That year, Mike Royko, the Voice of the Working Class for the New York Daily News (both have since passed away), said that 99% of the letters he received said, yes, Fay should be flogged. Yet, President Clinton did send an official protest, and so did six U.S. Senators. Officials in Singapore were unapologetic, wondered how the leader of the most powerful country could worry about a spoiled brat and remarked that they did not have situations where vandals spray-painted police cars, such as in New York City.

Well, Singapore President Ong Teng Cheong, ever so kind, reduced the penalty to four strokes and they were applied on May 5, 1994, in private. Americans again griped that the penalty was excessive and inhumane. Not long thereafter, after Michael Fay returned to the U.S., he was admitted to the Hazelden rehabilitation program for butane abuse (he sniffed this fossil fuel gas), was cited for reckless driving in Florida and then arrested for possession of marijuana and drug paraphernalia. I guess he is one person who never learns his lesson. Hmm...a candidate for Three Strikes and You're Dead.

In 2002, Van Tuong Nguyen of Melbourne was arrested at Changi Airport with nearly 400 grams (almost a pound) of heroin. He was convicted and sentenced to death. The Australian and New Zealand Prime Ministers, the Pope and many others, called for clemency. Singapore has a mandatory death penalty for the importation of more than 15 grams of heroin, 30 grams of cocaine and 500 grams of cannabis. Singapore executes more people per capita that any other country, about 35/year, mostly for drug trafficking. Van Tuong Nguyen was hanged in Changi Prison on December 2, 2005.

In the 1800’s, before Singapore became a nation, opium was supplied to laborers and addiction became increasingly widespread. After World War II, opium smoking was made illegal. By the 1970’s heroin took over. Well, is there a drug problem in Singapore today? Yes, but mostly synthetic drugs such as nimetazepam, because it was new and not yet subject to control (it now is). Today, heroin is #7. Zero tolerance seems to be somewhat working.

-

The Dow Jones Industrials, opening at 8154, rose past 8400 today, only to drop back to 8170, then, in the now famous last hour so common to the stock market in these volatile times, jumped almost 250 points, ending at 8419, up 270 (3.3%) for the day. Asian markets all dropped about 4%, with the Japan Nikkei plunging 6.4%. The European stock exchanges, though, virtually all remained positive for the day.

-

It is appearing that, now chastened, the Big Three CEOs later this week, will ask Congress not for $25 billion, but $34 billion, with Ford, at least, mumbling that they might not need to use it if the situation improves.

-

The NYMEX Crude Future dropped $2.32/barrel to $46.96. Christopher Ruehl of BP remarked that oil prices will continue to fall because of the world recession, unless OPEC cuts production, something that their Secretary-General, Abdalla el-Badri said might happen when then meet in Algeria later this month. While King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and oil ministers have continue to mouth statements to the effect that $75/barrel would be a fair price, Ruehl remarked, "There is no fair price. There is a price, which balances demand and supply."

Interested in what gasoline costs around the nation? However, for Hawaii, I yesterday paid around $2/gallon at COSTCO, so averages don't mean that much.

Gasoline Prices

NOTE THAT, INSTEAD OF ALPHABETICALLY WAITING, YOU CAN TYPE IN YOUR STATE SYMBOL AT THE BOTTOM, SUCH AS "HI" FOR HAWAII. You can also CLICK on "Gasoline Prices" at the top and go directly to the source. The national average price of gasoline in the USA was $4/gallon on July 7, 2008. Today, it is $1.81 for regular.

-

CHAPTER 1. CRIME AND WARS (Part 19)

Draco the Lawgiver

Draco wrote the first constitution of Athens. His laws were severe, as a debtor became a slave and there was death for even minor offenses. In time, this form of punishment became known as Draconian.

Draco means dragon in Latin. I’m a dragon. Maybe there is more to all this than I can imagine. The solution to crime might well be Draconian.


The Three Strikes Law

There is almost total agreement that the solution to crime is in the prevention. Upbringing and education mean everything, and every care and reasonable expense should be expended to mold a solid citizen. I highly advocate early education as the means to remediate potential criminals in Chapter 4. Unfortunately, there will still be crimes.

Civilization has exacted a range of punishments over time. In Exodus 21:23-27, an “eye for an eye” provided the principle of proportionate punishment. Equitable retaliation was the belief. This same concept is presented in the Code of Hammurabi. Of benefit to the criminal, this type of law prevents excessive punishment. The Quran actually urges the victim to accept a lower compensation, if not totally forgive, with an unwritten belief of a later reward, such as, perhaps, paradise. Martin Luther King has been quoted to say, “the old law of an eye for an eye leaves everyone blind.”

Fair enough, as everyone makes a mistake now and then. If the crime can be forgiven, fine, now do everything possible to remediate that person. Be protective, be reformative. Rehabilitate. A second crime is committed and there is a conviction. Now what? Is there a way to prevent habitual offending? Do longer and longer prison sentences make sense? Alas there could be a third strike. Chaperoned, air-conditioned comfort, for life?

In baseball, if you get three strikes, you are out. In the U.S., with three strikes, or convictions, you go to jail, maybe even for a long time, perhaps life. This is a relatively new concept, which started in the state of Washington in 1993 and California the following year, with three felonies and you’re in prison for life. Kevin Weber was sentenced to 26 years to life for stealing four chocolate chip cookies (his two previous convictions were for burglary and assault). There are 344 shoplifters in prison for 25 years or more, one who stole a $3 magazine. Les Miserables? Their prisons now hold double the designed capacity. And, you’re paying for all this.

More than half of the states now have some form of this law. In March 5, 2003, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the three strikes law was not “cruel and unusual punishment.”

Here is my problem with this law. As immoral as keeping someone in jail for the rest of his life might be, I think it is not worth my tax dollars. Does this mean I am against such a concept? No, I like the fact that seasoned criminals are kept away, only, let us be truly sensible, maybe, even draconian. First, do we want a better educational system or should we build more prisons? Second, isn’t it cruel to keep someone locked up for a lifetime? Third, how, really, can we actually best prevent that fourth crime. This simple solution will soon be announced...but not quite yet.

-

Okay, what happened? The Dow Jones Industrials crashed 680 points today to 8149. It is only the fourth-biggest one day decline and 12th worst, at 7.7%, on a percentage basis, but really bad, nevertheless. This is a sign that we are in for a long recession. In a way, this was surprising, for Black (meaning a positive bottom line, as opposed to Red, which connotes a loss) Friday had 3% more shoppers, each spending 7.2% more. The Hong Kong market rose, but the rest of the world sunk, most from 5% to 10%. One might speculate that the world markets will react very negatively tomorrow.

-

U.S. crude oil for January delivery dropped $5.15/barrel to $49.28 and gasoline at $1.82/gallon fell to a 4-year low. Gold also plummeted, $42.20/toz to $776.80. With the recession should come gold buying. Why this precious metal is dropping in value is confounding.

-

The dollar gained on the Euro, but, again, fell against the Yen. I repeat, I don't quite understand this. It was $1.60 to the Euro at the time of $147/barrel oil (mid July), but the exchange rate is now down to $1.26. Of course, prior to this year, the exchange rate largely vacillated between $1.25 to $1.30, so nothing, in a sense, has changed. Regarding Japan, a little more than a year ago, it was 123 Yen to the Dollar. Today, the exchange rate fell below 94 Yen to the Dollar. Of course, we should be comparing the inverse, so the change in this period was from $0.0081 to the Yen to $0.01069 to the Yen. The only explanation I can give about why the U.S. dollar is rising against the Euro, but falling against the Yen, is that, historically, in time of recession, the Yen serves a deposit function not dissimilar to gold. Anyway, for the traveller, your money is now worth more in Europe than Japan.

-

Well, the hurricane season ended over the weekend. If you live in Hawaii, nothing happened. Whew! However, there were 16 to 19 named storms in the West Pacific, depending on who you believe, with seven hurricanes, none which reached the Central Pacific. This last happened in 1996. Damages were estimated to be about $50 million, mostly to Mexico.

-

In the Atlantic, 2008 set several weather records. For the first time, ever, a major hurricane (156 MPH) formed each month from July through November. Fay managed to hit Florida four times. The yearly loss was $54 billion, the second most ever, to 2003, when Katrina, Rita and siblings caused $128 billion worth of damages. But in 2008 there were only 16 named storms, half becoming a hurricane, and, maybe up to 14 fatalities.

-

In comparison, there were 21 named storms (10 becoming typhoons) in the East Pacific, where the average is 27 named and 17 typhoons (equivalent to a hurricane). So it was a slow season, but damages were approximately $3 billion with at least 1700 deaths. All these storms have a Western name (alphabetically listed) and a second name linked to the location of the origin.

-

The North Indian Ocean had 9 storms, 4 becoming cyclones, causing $10 billion in damage. Sounds almost tepid. But, again, we tend to shield ourselves from reality, as Cyclone Nargis, with 135 MPH winds, might have killed 146,000 (Katrina's death toll was 1836, although 705 are still missing), and if so, would only be the 7th worse cyclone (the Bhola Cyclone in 1970 killed half a million people). The Southern Hemisphere faced 37 storms, 13 becoming cyclones, causing about $150 million in damage.

-

ABOUT MUMBAI

Chapter 6 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity included an anecdote regarding Mumbai, the city capturing the headlines these days.

-

Bombay was Eye-opening

We landed in Bombay after midnight, but the customs agent sent us to the back of the line because we had no visas. No one told us about that before the trip, but, sure, that was our fault.

At 2:30 in the morning, we were the final two in line. The temperature was in the 90’s (degrees Fahrenheit). That agent—and, sorry, but he looked like a crook—said he had to keep our passports, and we could enter the country, but we should hire someone to get them back before we checked out of the country. What choice did we have? This is scam city, and a more active form than in Cairo, yet to come.

There was a very large sign behind him warning anyone not to exchange money with these officials. So he proceeded to ask us how many rupees we wanted. Oh, great, now what? Do we ignore him and walk out, invoking his rage to purposely lose our passports, or get thrown in jail for exchanging money? We got a few rupees. No problem.

The taxi ride was uneventful. We checked into the Holiday Inn, and got a room with the noisiest air conditioner I have ever experienced. But it worked. We specifically picked this hotel because it was a Holiday Inn. Certainly, it would be sterile.

The next morning, we went down to breakfast in their coffee shop, which was swarming with flies. Yes, this was a Holiday Inn.

Pearl walked just outside the hotel area to the beach, and came running back, as a whole mob of children was chasing her to sell rocks. Not gemstone quality, but plain old rocks. What a cultural shock.

We took an arranged tour of the city. I can still remember the utter poverty. People living in cardboard boxes…mothers with deformed children begging…carts hauling dead people to special areas for vultures to pick on…this was a totally different world. Bombay was a shock to our senses.

The tour guide was especially proud of a church basement where 8-10 year old children were sewing in semi-darkness, almost swollen with pride because at least they had shelter and food. The Hanging Gardens of Bombay approximated my hanging roof garden in Honolulu. The Gateway of India was swarming with a million people. People bumped into you at this tourist attraction because of crowd surges, but as far as I could determine, there were no pickpockets. Singapore has about 2,000 people/square mile…Bombay is almost ten times that density. 20 million people? I can go on, but a couple of days later we finally found ourselves back at the airport six hours before our flight, to retrieve our passports.

You can imagine our anxiety as we waited for 5 ½ hours with our baggage, waiting to check in. Through a major miracle, the youth we hired came running back…we barely were able to check through…just got on board, and the plane left India. That was our last trip to this country. Eliminate India as a best place to live.

-

Mumbai has a current population approaching 14 million, with a metropolitan area of 21 million, the largest in the country. It is the financial capital of India and home of Bollywood. Almost 200 were killed by the terrorist act, claimed by the Deccan Mujahideen, whatever they represent.  Later reaction pointed to a Pakistani Islamist group, Lashkar-e-Taiba. However, Pakistan officially condemned the action. While early reports speculated that Westerners were being targetted, my sense is that this was a traditional Muslim/Hindu squabble.  More specifically, within India, Muslims are more and more taking action for what they have determined to be discrimination. India is 80% Hindu and Pakistan is 96% Muslim. The September series of bombings killing 20 in New Delhi was attributed to the Indian Mujahideen (Muslim guerilla warrior engaged in a Jihad) and the October Assam blasts resulting in 84 deaths seemed linked to a regional liberation movement.

-

Bombay is now Mumbai, as Madras is Chennai and Calcutta is Kolkata. Cities are beginning to shed colonial references. Even New Delhi could someday be known as Delli.

-

The Dow Jones Industrials jumped 102 to 8829, but remained 34% below January 1, 2008. World markets were mixed, but mostly up. Oil is at $54.43/barrel.

-

SIMPLE SOLUTIONS FOR OUR BIOFUEL PROBLEM

On this Thanksgiving holiday I thought I would reflect on the one most critical energy topic to be a challenge: transportation fuel. Much of the following was detailed in Chapter 2 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth.

Renewable energy will be used to provide electricity and fuels for ground transportation and aviation. Sustainable electricity is well in hand. As the price of oil again increases, the range of alternatives will gain in prominence, starting with windpower, which is already competitive. Plug in vehicles are poised to make an impressive entry.

Liquid and gaseous biofuels are another matter. Details about this subject can be found in the book mentioned above. The current infrastructure is liquid dominated, so, for this discussion, I will delete biomethane and hydrogen from consideration. In addition, for now, hydrogen is just too expensive to produce.

The Nation and World unfortunately went in the wrong direction when ethanol from corn (plus sugars and other starches) and biodiesel from terrestrial plants were selected for focus. The Farm Lobby no doubt should be congratulated for smartly lobbying Congress and the White House for farmers are in great shape. Job done! Regrettably, grain prices jumped, causing a food crisis for developing countries. The knee-jerk reaction was, of course, all that fibrous cellulose, why not ferment those wastes into more ethanol? So, a second herd of white elephants is now being groomed. Why? Because there is a simpler alcohol called methanol that makes more economic sense. My HuffPo article of June 10 compares ethanol and methanol.

Regarding biodiesel, the notion is almost laughable, as only a very small percent of the plant itself is used. Biodiesel from algae, for example, is ten to twenty times more efficient in converting sunlight into usable fuel. Plus, these land plants grow relatively slowly and need irrigation water.

About the future of cars, one always hopes for nanotechnology making a difference, but it appears that the lithium battery might well be the ultimate. Per unit volume, fuel cells can provide more energy than any battery, perhaps by a factor five or more. This is why the direct methanol fuel cell (DMFC) will in time replace batteries for portable electronic applications. As an aside, this defies common sense, but one gallon of methanol has more accessible hydrogen than one gallon of liquid hydrogen. Thus the logic argues for producing methanol from biomass to power a fuel cell. Whoops, there is no DMFC for vehicles. For the record, while methanol has half the energy value of gasoline, the fuel cell is at least twice the efficiency of the internal combustion engine, so there is a wash here on fuel storage. And methanol is no more toxic than gasoline. You shouldn’t drink either one.

Aviation remains a great challenge. I wrote into the original Senate legislation, known as the Matsunaga Act, a section that did result in the hydrogen powered National Aerospace Plane Project in the 1980’s, which later became a black Department of Defense (DOD) Program. Thus, the only option over the next few decades has to be a replacement for jetfuel. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency has a solicitation for a commercial jetfuel from algae, and companies are coming out of the woodwork to do the job. Is this good? Yes and no. Nice that the DOD thinks $3/gallon is possible, and there is industrial interest in delivering, but the basic science and engineering has not yet been attempted. Why not?

First, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is mostly a monitor and protection agency. Second, the Department of Energy abandoned all ocean energy efforts and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory actually gave their microorganism collection to the University of Hawaii. The National Science Foundation did establish a Marine Bioproducts Engineering Center in Hawaii, but only for high value products. Energy is cheap, and that is the problem with biofuels from algae.

So what are the simple solutions to develop a progressive national biofuels program?

1. Terminate any ethanol from food support.

2. Adjust the existing language for tax incentives to say, “ethanol, biodiesel and other biofuels from renewable resources.” This would make available future funds and permit academics to conduct research on biomethanol, biobutanol, etc., and stimulate industry involvement in these areas.

3. Quickly perfect a direct methanol fuel cell for vehicular applications. A direct ethanol fuel cell will be inherently inefficient.

4. Expand the mission of the Department of Energy to bridge the gap between research and commercialization and permit R&D for areas that link to energy. The economic potential of many renewable energy areas is enhanced with non-energy co-products.

5. As NOAA reports to the Department of Commerce, expand the current research policy to encourage oceanic research to commercialize marine products and closely partner with the USDOE to share common interests.

6. Accelerate the development of next generation aircraft, whether it be a hydrogen dirigible that can be engineered to travel 500 miles per hour or advancing the twenty year old National Aerospace Plane Project, or both.

The Obama energy transition team is now determining priorities for the next four years. With oil prices loitering around $50/barrel, I worry that attitudes have changed about the seriousness of our future energy problems. We, of course, know with a high degree of certainty that oil will zoom past $100/barrel again, if not next year than certainly within five years. The development of sensible next generation biofuels will take a decade, so, in a sense, we are already too late. But the timing is perfect for change, so let’s do it the right way this time.

-

The New York Stock Exchange is closed today, but all world markets fed on the four day run of America and went up. What about Black Friday? Well, hopefully that will only apply to shopping.

-

CHAPTER 1. CRIME AND WARS (Part 18)

The Next Generation Solution

Ah, but on the horizon is nitrogen asphyxiation, known as killing with kindness. Nitrogen is 78% of the atmosphere we breathe. But if the content is less than 10% oxygen, death can result. Nearly 100 industrial deaths have been caused over the past couple of decades by too rich a nitrogen atmosphere.

In 1981, during final countdown for the Columbia Space Shuttle at the Kennedy Space Center, two NASA technicians entered the aft engine compartment, which was purged with nitrogen to reduce any hydrogen-oxygen build-up, and died in minutes from anoxia (lack of oxygen). Nitrogen has no distinct smell or taste. The same happened to the European Space Agency in 1995 when two more lost their lives from a nitrogen leak into the launchpad.

The body feels suffocation only when the carbon dioxide concentration in your lungs exceeds a certain threshold, as when you hold your breath. The beauty of using nitrogen, if you can call it that, is that in a nitrogen atmosphere, you exhale the carbon dioxide normally, but without the 20% oxygen on inhalation. Thus, death is painless without the feeling of suffocation. No state or nation is considering this option, although when I last visited Norway, being discussed was the use of this gas for the humane slaughter of fish. Maybe nitrogen should be used for turkeys and all livestock.

The Dow Jones Industrials have a four day winning streak, steadily increasing today to +247 (3%) at 8727. Asia also increased about 3%, but Europe remained largely unchanged. For the first time in memory, all twelve of my stocks gained today, including, of course, the ones I'm following for this daily blog. Crude oil is at $53.91/barrel and gold dropped $3/toz to $812.

We celebrate Thanksgiving because the Wampanoag tribe helped the Pilgrims plant crops in 1621 when they landed at Plymouth, Massachusetts, leading to a feast of thanksgiving that fall. Plymouth now has a population of around 50,000.

-

Congress passed the order on November 1, 1777, but it was President Abraham Lincoln, who in 1873 announced his Thanksgiving Proclamation, making the last Thursday of November a national holiday. The turkey unfortunately (for them) became the centerpiece meal of choice because the Pilgrims could not find geese, which were consumed on festival occasions in England.

At one time half of all turkey meat was eaten between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Tomorrow, 46 million (of the 250 million/year) will be served. The per capita rate is 14 pounds/year.

Did you know that most turkeys come from Minnesota? The bird kind, at least. Wisconsin sells the most cranberry and Illinois is #1 in pumpkin production.

A dry and oakey Chardonnay is the favorite wine on Thanksgiving. White Zinfandel is best for those who like a sweeter and cheaper wine. Pinot Noir is considered ideal if you prefer red.
-
Benjamin Franklin recommended the turkey as the national bird, but the Bald Eagle was selected over his protestations. A recent article reports on Thanksgiving.
-

CHAPTER 1. CRIME AND WARS (Part 17)

The following is excerpted from Chapter 1 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity.
-
The Seven Minute Solution: Lethal Injection

Every American execution since 2005 was conducted by lethal injection. The basic idea was proposed in 1888 by Julius Mount Bleyer, a New York doctor, because it was more humane and cheaper. Nothing much happened, though, until 1977, when Jay Chapman, the state medical examiner for Oklahoma, introduced the Chapman Protocol, a two-stage intravenous drip. Thirty-seven states have adopted this treatment, and so has China.

The technique has now been refined into a three-step sequence, with parallel drips, in case the first one does not work:

o sodium thiopental: induces unconsciousness;
o pancuronium bromide: stops all muscle movement, except the heart; and
o potassium chloride: causing cardiac arrest.

It usually takes 7 minutes for death to occur.

The Supreme Court has indicated that death-row inmates can challenge lethal injection as cruel and unusual, but has not themselves decided if this protocol is illegal or not. The American Medical Association believes that it is a personal decision. The debate is in two parts: first, is the death penalty too terminal, and, second, if acceptable, is there a more humane method.

The Florida Catholic Conference and Amnesty International USA reported on the Bennie Demps execution, a Muslim, who in 1971 murdered two people, was convicted to death, but was saved in 1972 when the Supreme Court declared capital punishment unconstitutional. However, in 1976, the Florida death law was upheld, soon after when Demps participated in a jail stabbing murder, and was sentenced to death for the second time. After all this time in jail, on June 7, 2000, D-Day came, technicians couldn’t find that second vein, and Demps was quoted by witnesses to have remarked, “They butchered me back there…This is not an execution, it is murder.”

In 1981, Michael Angelo Morales, a heavy drug user, was recruited by his gay cousin, Ricky Ortega, to kill Terri Winchell, 17, who was dating Ortega’s boyfriend. According to testimony, Morales strangled, hit her head 23 times with a claw hammer, raped, and then stabbed her four times. A quarter century later, in February of 2006, he ate his “last meal” of pork chops, bacon, a lettuce/tomato sandwich, milkshake and strawberry shortcake. Two hours before the second attempt at execution, it was postponed because a judge determined that there was a risk that the death might be painful, having something to do with not having a licensed professional do the job. Barbara Christian, Terri’s mother, remarked, “Here our beautiful daughter lies murdered, and there they worry about the way this monster feels and if he’ll feel any pain.” In mid-2007, U.S. District Judge Jeremy Fogel said that he would visit California’s new death chamber later this year to issue a follow-up ruling.

Demps and Morales are still alive. Tomorrow, the Nitrogen Solution.

The Dow Jones Industrials inched up 36 to 8479. The world pretty much also rotated around no change, with Sweden being the only exception, jumping 9%. Crude oil also remained stable at $51/barrel.
-