FLASH: The NYMEX Crude Future price at 9:30AM HST hit $126.04.
Why SIMPLE SOLUTIONS?
John Cusack said that if you're offended and disturbed by his political satire in War Inc., which will open on May 23, then he has done his job. The film grew out of "his outrage over the Iraq war and his concern about the level of political power wielded by multinational corporations."
SIMPLE SOLUTIONS were provocatively written for a similar reason with respect to Peak Oil and Global Warming. However, the problem is NOT really the fault of President George Bush, nor the Congress, nor the oil executives. There is a lack of will on part of the people. SIMPLE SOLUTIONS are provided to do something about you and me, and hope to "offend and disturb" the reader to take action. That one reader, you, is a necessary good beginning, but it will also take the catalytic power of hundreds and thousands acting with outrage and concern, over time, to make that crucial difference. The other option is to do nothing and face the possible consequences of a global economic and physical cataclysm. My predicted year from Book 1 is 2012, and I will go into why that year tomorrow.
วันศุกร์ที่ 9 พฤษภาคม พ.ศ. 2551
วันพฤหัสบดีที่ 8 พฤษภาคม พ.ศ. 2551
Why SIMPLE SOLUTION books were written.
FLASH: Not so exciting, but oil seems to be steady at $123/barrel today. Keep in mind that, at this price, petroleum is selling for less than $3/gallon.
THE STORY BEHIND WHY
SIMPLE SOLUTIONS are easy. The problem is in reaching that solution satisfactorily. For example, the combined hammer of Peak Oil and Global Warming looms to crush the global economy, but society is not equipped to quickly circumvent that problem. Something serious has to happen first before action can be taken. But, then, of course, it is too late. Lifestyles will suffer, various species will become extinct, the list goes on.
As a prescription mostly to minimize the pain, these books were written to catalyze action by providing extreme solutions or presenting fearsome scenarios. Sort of grab people's attention. Business as usual will not do much over the next century for human progress in harmony with the environment, so let me toss out a few provocative answers and predictions to stimulate the spread of a virtual virus engineered to improve our future.
From the Introduction of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth (http://SimpleSolutionsBook1.com)
WHY THESE BOOKS?
No one in his right mind would read an encyclopedia or dictionary, although I have tried. There is just too much information available and I wonder why I ever did. However, a book of lists or compilations of wise sayings are popular because they are not necessarily too lengthy, and someone else has done the excruciating job of extracting the best of those for you. In a sense, I have attempted to save you the trouble of reading a thousand books and suffering through hundreds of experiments by crystallizing the essence of energy and the environment around my life in Book 1, providing simple solutions for Planet Earth, and, by so doing, for society, too.
How and where did life originate? What are the prospects for a healthy Earth and prosperous civilization? Those are the foci of Book 1. Book 2—Simple Solutions for Humanity—will delve into life and death, and, perhaps, even beyond that. How long will you live if we eradicate crime and wars and find a cure for aging? The ultimate solutions will come from a better educational system and maybe even from above—extraterrestrials or God—but you’ll need to wait until the next book for these answers.
Why even mention Book 2? Well, for one, it is largely written and awaits future publication, soon. Book 1 will treat the technical aspects of life. Book 2 explores other realms, as, for example, how truly possible is an afterlife?
Rather than complicate an already complex set of challenges, I have instead provided SIMPLE SOLUTIONS. The energy/environment issues are relatively straightforward, so SIMPLE SOLUTIONS are just a matter of society will and time. But in Book 2: How can we stop aging? Can we end wars? Are there signals coming from outer space with clues on how to solve global problems and attain our dreams? Can religion save itself and steer the way towards universal peace and a sustainable future for our society? What can you do to make the crucial difference? There are answers and solutions, but some of them, while simple, will be extraordinary.
So let us start with Planet Earth, where the 1% external skin of our ecosystem can be considered to be a living system. Everywhere you go, from the depths of the deepest cave to the top of Mt. Everest to the bottom of the Mariana Trench and into the atmosphere, there is some form of life, usually bacterial and viral. Our biosphere has maintained about a 21% oxygen concentration for billions of years, mainly because of the simplest fossil fuel, methane, which, in CHAPTER 5, could well end up becoming that doomsday gas. On the other hand, “We have met the enemy, and he is us,” said Pogo. When you consider that our globe has been turning for 4.55 billion years, and, save for a couple of super volcanic eruptions and, maybe, an asteroid or two, the closest our environment has come to total eradication has been of recent when we almost pushed the button for nuclear annihilation, then, now, are probably causing serious global warming. You can’t help but wonder if we’re the cancer that is losing control. For example, in answer to industry’s peaking on oil and natural gas, international policy seems headed towards a combination of nuclear, tar sands, heavy oil and coal resources. This would not be smart at all if the Greenhouse Effect is real. We really need to seek some serious immunotherapy resolutions without extinguishing our species. But will the genomic answers be our next, and most fatal, blunder? Perhaps, but we need to also cross that threshold.
These books suggest SIMPLE SOLUTIONS to accelerate the development of green technology, the science of eternal life, the promise of peace, and more. Mind you, simple solutions are not slam dunk answers, nor will they be easy to accomplish, and, in fact, might be downright impossible to achieve, for, depending on your point of view or belief, they could be inhumane or patently ridiculous.
For example, you walk past a morbidly obese lady, and you might be tempted to provide a simple solution: “lose 100 pounds,” you say. That is a simple solution. But her husband beside her could take umbrage and worse. Have you tried to lose even 5 pounds yourself? Losing weight can be very difficult. Even for the most vexing of crises, the solutions are obvious. The fashioning of any realistic strategy to overcome the challenge seems beyond the current capability of our society.
But, in any case, these simple solutions provided will suggest a beginning point for discussion so that society can craft optimal approaches to seemingly despairing quandaries. These are the best of what have been advocated from time immemorial. Very few are my original contributions, and especially so in Book 2 on the Golden Evolution, for I’m certainly not seeking entry into any fatwa list.
Why am I qualified to write this book? Each chapter, at least in Book 1, is actually a part of my life, filled with colors and, being a chemical engineer, elements. Call it autobiographical science, or my technological memoir, 100% of what you will read here is based on fact as I know it at the time of this writing, or what might possibly happen into the future under certain best or worst case scenarios. There is some softness in my personal history, but I haven’t quite gotten around to, yet, verifying my roots, as for example, the certainty about my great, great grandparents’ past. Not knowing, though, does allow some room for rational speculation, making things a bit more interesting, without guilt.
One of the people I interacted with early in my professional career, who will return in later chapters, was Edward Teller, the father of the Hydrogen Bomb, for in some ways, he is responsible for my peaceful interest in hydrogen, as is presented in CHAPTER 3. He wrote a book on energy, and I quote:
“I do not claim to be objective. I have arrived at conclusions and my conclusions influence my presentation.”
The same can be said for my books.
THE STORY BEHIND WHY
SIMPLE SOLUTIONS are easy. The problem is in reaching that solution satisfactorily. For example, the combined hammer of Peak Oil and Global Warming looms to crush the global economy, but society is not equipped to quickly circumvent that problem. Something serious has to happen first before action can be taken. But, then, of course, it is too late. Lifestyles will suffer, various species will become extinct, the list goes on.
As a prescription mostly to minimize the pain, these books were written to catalyze action by providing extreme solutions or presenting fearsome scenarios. Sort of grab people's attention. Business as usual will not do much over the next century for human progress in harmony with the environment, so let me toss out a few provocative answers and predictions to stimulate the spread of a virtual virus engineered to improve our future.
From the Introduction of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth (http://SimpleSolutionsBook1.com)
WHY THESE BOOKS?
No one in his right mind would read an encyclopedia or dictionary, although I have tried. There is just too much information available and I wonder why I ever did. However, a book of lists or compilations of wise sayings are popular because they are not necessarily too lengthy, and someone else has done the excruciating job of extracting the best of those for you. In a sense, I have attempted to save you the trouble of reading a thousand books and suffering through hundreds of experiments by crystallizing the essence of energy and the environment around my life in Book 1, providing simple solutions for Planet Earth, and, by so doing, for society, too.
How and where did life originate? What are the prospects for a healthy Earth and prosperous civilization? Those are the foci of Book 1. Book 2—Simple Solutions for Humanity—will delve into life and death, and, perhaps, even beyond that. How long will you live if we eradicate crime and wars and find a cure for aging? The ultimate solutions will come from a better educational system and maybe even from above—extraterrestrials or God—but you’ll need to wait until the next book for these answers.
Why even mention Book 2? Well, for one, it is largely written and awaits future publication, soon. Book 1 will treat the technical aspects of life. Book 2 explores other realms, as, for example, how truly possible is an afterlife?
Rather than complicate an already complex set of challenges, I have instead provided SIMPLE SOLUTIONS. The energy/environment issues are relatively straightforward, so SIMPLE SOLUTIONS are just a matter of society will and time. But in Book 2: How can we stop aging? Can we end wars? Are there signals coming from outer space with clues on how to solve global problems and attain our dreams? Can religion save itself and steer the way towards universal peace and a sustainable future for our society? What can you do to make the crucial difference? There are answers and solutions, but some of them, while simple, will be extraordinary.
So let us start with Planet Earth, where the 1% external skin of our ecosystem can be considered to be a living system. Everywhere you go, from the depths of the deepest cave to the top of Mt. Everest to the bottom of the Mariana Trench and into the atmosphere, there is some form of life, usually bacterial and viral. Our biosphere has maintained about a 21% oxygen concentration for billions of years, mainly because of the simplest fossil fuel, methane, which, in CHAPTER 5, could well end up becoming that doomsday gas. On the other hand, “We have met the enemy, and he is us,” said Pogo. When you consider that our globe has been turning for 4.55 billion years, and, save for a couple of super volcanic eruptions and, maybe, an asteroid or two, the closest our environment has come to total eradication has been of recent when we almost pushed the button for nuclear annihilation, then, now, are probably causing serious global warming. You can’t help but wonder if we’re the cancer that is losing control. For example, in answer to industry’s peaking on oil and natural gas, international policy seems headed towards a combination of nuclear, tar sands, heavy oil and coal resources. This would not be smart at all if the Greenhouse Effect is real. We really need to seek some serious immunotherapy resolutions without extinguishing our species. But will the genomic answers be our next, and most fatal, blunder? Perhaps, but we need to also cross that threshold.
These books suggest SIMPLE SOLUTIONS to accelerate the development of green technology, the science of eternal life, the promise of peace, and more. Mind you, simple solutions are not slam dunk answers, nor will they be easy to accomplish, and, in fact, might be downright impossible to achieve, for, depending on your point of view or belief, they could be inhumane or patently ridiculous.
For example, you walk past a morbidly obese lady, and you might be tempted to provide a simple solution: “lose 100 pounds,” you say. That is a simple solution. But her husband beside her could take umbrage and worse. Have you tried to lose even 5 pounds yourself? Losing weight can be very difficult. Even for the most vexing of crises, the solutions are obvious. The fashioning of any realistic strategy to overcome the challenge seems beyond the current capability of our society.
But, in any case, these simple solutions provided will suggest a beginning point for discussion so that society can craft optimal approaches to seemingly despairing quandaries. These are the best of what have been advocated from time immemorial. Very few are my original contributions, and especially so in Book 2 on the Golden Evolution, for I’m certainly not seeking entry into any fatwa list.
Why am I qualified to write this book? Each chapter, at least in Book 1, is actually a part of my life, filled with colors and, being a chemical engineer, elements. Call it autobiographical science, or my technological memoir, 100% of what you will read here is based on fact as I know it at the time of this writing, or what might possibly happen into the future under certain best or worst case scenarios. There is some softness in my personal history, but I haven’t quite gotten around to, yet, verifying my roots, as for example, the certainty about my great, great grandparents’ past. Not knowing, though, does allow some room for rational speculation, making things a bit more interesting, without guilt.
One of the people I interacted with early in my professional career, who will return in later chapters, was Edward Teller, the father of the Hydrogen Bomb, for in some ways, he is responsible for my peaceful interest in hydrogen, as is presented in CHAPTER 3. He wrote a book on energy, and I quote:
“I do not claim to be objective. I have arrived at conclusions and my conclusions influence my presentation.”
The same can be said for my books.
วันพุธที่ 7 พฤษภาคม พ.ศ. 2551
WHAT ARE SIMPLE SOLUTIONS?
NOTE: I will insert short segments from both SIMPLE SOLUTION books, starting tomorrow from the Introduction, and stepping through all twelve chapters and Epilogue over the next couple of weeks.
WHY SIMPLE SOLUTIONS
Is there such a thing as a simple solution? Yes, and no. If a person is considerably overweight, the simple solution would be to lose weight. Thus, how to attain that solution becomes the operative challenge. Is there a simple solution for the dual hammer of Peak Oil and Global Warming? Some would say no, because it is already too late. If we only had made a full court press soon after the second energy crisis of 1979, we would today be in relatively good shape. Unfortunately, what happened was that Ronald Reagan became president in 1981 and he scuttled the national solar program. He is credited, though, for helping end the Cold War, probably the greatest threat humanity has ever had to survival, so let’s give him some recognition. See Epilogue in SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity—
http://www.simplesolutionsbook2.com/
In any case, there is a controlling element in the USA, coalesced around the White House and corporate boards, where the prevailing attitude seems to be one of protecting the continued use of fossil fuels to maintain a strong economy. So far, this policy seems to have worked. The U.S. is the most powerful country ever, so how can you argue against success? Well, what about the health of this globe? Anyway, this group questions the validity of global heating and feel comfortable hallucinating that oil will be around for many decades to come, or at least long enough so that they can cash in their golden parachute.
So, why bother, if our leaders have no worries and the doomsdayers are saying it is already too late. Why? Because both factions could be wrong. Too much is at stake and doing nothing is not an option. That was the premise for writing SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth—
http://www.simplesolutionsbook1.com/
What, then, might work? Capping and trading carbon dioxide rights seem to have caught on. Here, free enterprise is entrusted to control the problem. But I have the uneasy feeling that cap/trade will only act as an excuse to further pollute the atmosphere.
We need something a lot more foolproof. What would work is a 10 cents/pound carbon dioxide tax on the combustion of fossil fuel. Our society will, then, very quickly shift away from using coal, oil and natural gas. But this tax is draconian and the world economy will most probably be jeopardized.
However, it almost doesn’t matter, for enactment of such an extreme solution seems beyond the capability of our society. The G8 Nations can make a stand, but their gathering in Heiligendamm last year only resulted in a “let’s do something by 2050” waffle, plus a nuclear power agreement. In a little more than a month, they meet this year on Hokkaido, with an environmental theme. If you have any media credentials, you can participate:
http://www.g8summit.go.jp/eng/press/index.html
Or can the United Nations move quickly and boldly enough to make a difference? The UN, quickly and boldly? Come on. Yet, they did inspire the Kyoto Protocol and had a hand in the control of halocarbons for ozone. Don’t hold your breath, but after G8 Japan 2008, maybe this will become the only pathway to ultimate rationality.
FLASH: Yikes, the price of NYMEX Crude Future for petroleum, at 11:40AM Hawaii time, is up to $123.80.
WHY SIMPLE SOLUTIONS
Is there such a thing as a simple solution? Yes, and no. If a person is considerably overweight, the simple solution would be to lose weight. Thus, how to attain that solution becomes the operative challenge. Is there a simple solution for the dual hammer of Peak Oil and Global Warming? Some would say no, because it is already too late. If we only had made a full court press soon after the second energy crisis of 1979, we would today be in relatively good shape. Unfortunately, what happened was that Ronald Reagan became president in 1981 and he scuttled the national solar program. He is credited, though, for helping end the Cold War, probably the greatest threat humanity has ever had to survival, so let’s give him some recognition. See Epilogue in SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity—
http://www.simplesolutionsbook2.com/
In any case, there is a controlling element in the USA, coalesced around the White House and corporate boards, where the prevailing attitude seems to be one of protecting the continued use of fossil fuels to maintain a strong economy. So far, this policy seems to have worked. The U.S. is the most powerful country ever, so how can you argue against success? Well, what about the health of this globe? Anyway, this group questions the validity of global heating and feel comfortable hallucinating that oil will be around for many decades to come, or at least long enough so that they can cash in their golden parachute.
So, why bother, if our leaders have no worries and the doomsdayers are saying it is already too late. Why? Because both factions could be wrong. Too much is at stake and doing nothing is not an option. That was the premise for writing SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth—
http://www.simplesolutionsbook1.com/
What, then, might work? Capping and trading carbon dioxide rights seem to have caught on. Here, free enterprise is entrusted to control the problem. But I have the uneasy feeling that cap/trade will only act as an excuse to further pollute the atmosphere.
We need something a lot more foolproof. What would work is a 10 cents/pound carbon dioxide tax on the combustion of fossil fuel. Our society will, then, very quickly shift away from using coal, oil and natural gas. But this tax is draconian and the world economy will most probably be jeopardized.
However, it almost doesn’t matter, for enactment of such an extreme solution seems beyond the capability of our society. The G8 Nations can make a stand, but their gathering in Heiligendamm last year only resulted in a “let’s do something by 2050” waffle, plus a nuclear power agreement. In a little more than a month, they meet this year on Hokkaido, with an environmental theme. If you have any media credentials, you can participate:
http://www.g8summit.go.jp/eng/press/index.html
Or can the United Nations move quickly and boldly enough to make a difference? The UN, quickly and boldly? Come on. Yet, they did inspire the Kyoto Protocol and had a hand in the control of halocarbons for ozone. Don’t hold your breath, but after G8 Japan 2008, maybe this will become the only pathway to ultimate rationality.
FLASH: Yikes, the price of NYMEX Crude Future for petroleum, at 11:40AM Hawaii time, is up to $123.80.
วันอังคารที่ 6 พฤษภาคม พ.ศ. 2551
The Day Oil First Topped $122/barrel
6May08
NEWS FLASH: The price of NYMEX Crude Future jiggled above $122 today, and, at 11:43AM Hawaii time, sits at $121.91/barrel.
WHAT ABOUT THE GAS TAX HOLIDAY?
John McCain first floated eliminating the 18.4¢/gallon (24.4¢/gal for diesel) tax during the three summer months to win some votes. Hillary Clinton jumped on board and suggested taking the difference through a windfall tax on oil companies. Clearly, Congress cannot do anything, anyway, on such short notice, that most called this pandering. Barack Obama said it was a gimmick and Thomas Friedman of The New York Times entitled his editorial: “Dumb as We Wanna Be.” Friedman essentially said, in reference to McCain and Clinton, “the unifying idea is so ridiculous, so unworthy of the people aspiring to lead our nation, it takes your breath away.”
What’s the reality? First of all, if this tax is dropped for the summer, the consumer would be saving 5%....5% on their gas bill. This should be a non-issue! Gasoline increases this amount each week, sometimes.
There was a congresswoman representing Hillary’s position on the Larry King Show last night, and she kind of stumbled by saying that she recently paid $70 to fill her car, and could have used that money for more important bills, or something like that. I should talk to her about my FREE Hydrogen Age. There is a sense in the masses that this gas holiday will now allow them to really travel cheaply.
How much money are we talking about? Actually, something in the range of $10 billion. Wow, that’s a lot of money. The U.S. Department of Energy spent less than this amount for renewable energy R&D over the past decade. Well, Exxon, during this past quarter, made a profit of $10.9 billion, which Wall Street found disappointing. Chevron’s profits only amounted to $5.2 billion, the second best quarter in their 132 year history. (How long has oil been around, anyway? Well Chevron first struck oil in California in 1876. Drake drilled for his Pennsylvania petroleum in 1859.) Remember, these profits are only for January, February and March of 2008.
We generally ignore the simple fact that the price of gasoline in Europe and parts of the Orient is double ours. Cutting the gas tax is going in the wrong direction. We need to add a dollar/gallon and apply this revenue to developing sustainable options. That would provide about $150 billion each year, which would be just about right to do something about Peak Oil and Global Warming.
GOOD NEWS: At 12:10 PM Hawaii time, that same crude future has slipped down to $121.84.
NEWS FLASH: The price of NYMEX Crude Future jiggled above $122 today, and, at 11:43AM Hawaii time, sits at $121.91/barrel.
WHAT ABOUT THE GAS TAX HOLIDAY?
John McCain first floated eliminating the 18.4¢/gallon (24.4¢/gal for diesel) tax during the three summer months to win some votes. Hillary Clinton jumped on board and suggested taking the difference through a windfall tax on oil companies. Clearly, Congress cannot do anything, anyway, on such short notice, that most called this pandering. Barack Obama said it was a gimmick and Thomas Friedman of The New York Times entitled his editorial: “Dumb as We Wanna Be.” Friedman essentially said, in reference to McCain and Clinton, “the unifying idea is so ridiculous, so unworthy of the people aspiring to lead our nation, it takes your breath away.”
What’s the reality? First of all, if this tax is dropped for the summer, the consumer would be saving 5%....5% on their gas bill. This should be a non-issue! Gasoline increases this amount each week, sometimes.
There was a congresswoman representing Hillary’s position on the Larry King Show last night, and she kind of stumbled by saying that she recently paid $70 to fill her car, and could have used that money for more important bills, or something like that. I should talk to her about my FREE Hydrogen Age. There is a sense in the masses that this gas holiday will now allow them to really travel cheaply.
How much money are we talking about? Actually, something in the range of $10 billion. Wow, that’s a lot of money. The U.S. Department of Energy spent less than this amount for renewable energy R&D over the past decade. Well, Exxon, during this past quarter, made a profit of $10.9 billion, which Wall Street found disappointing. Chevron’s profits only amounted to $5.2 billion, the second best quarter in their 132 year history. (How long has oil been around, anyway? Well Chevron first struck oil in California in 1876. Drake drilled for his Pennsylvania petroleum in 1859.) Remember, these profits are only for January, February and March of 2008.
We generally ignore the simple fact that the price of gasoline in Europe and parts of the Orient is double ours. Cutting the gas tax is going in the wrong direction. We need to add a dollar/gallon and apply this revenue to developing sustainable options. That would provide about $150 billion each year, which would be just about right to do something about Peak Oil and Global Warming.
GOOD NEWS: At 12:10 PM Hawaii time, that same crude future has slipped down to $121.84.
วันจันทร์ที่ 5 พฤษภาคม พ.ศ. 2551
5May08
HAPPY CINCO DE MAYO AND BOYS' DAY
First of all, the good news: according to Bloomberg, the WTI Cushing Spot Price of oil is at $119.97/barrel at 4:03 PM EDT.
Most of you don't know that Cinco de Mayo is only celebrated in the U.S. as a kind of Mexican Heritage Day, akin to St. Patrick's Day and Ohktoberfest (which begins in Germany in September) only for the liquor consumed. In Mexico, May 5 represents a minor 1862 battle victory over the French, but it took another five years before Independence was attained. These excuses for drinking to excess make life all that more tolerable, I guess.
-
Kodomo no Hi, or Children's Day on May 5, is a real national holiday in Japan, being an important part of Golden Week (you think we have some frivolous holidays--try Showa Day on April 29, Constitution Memorial Day on May 3 and Greenery Day on May 4, too), providing a period when people can go on vacation, though not as much to Hawaii anymore. The male of the species is more important in certain cultures, so this is also called Boys' Day. This once was referred to as Tango no Sekku to begin the summer or rainy season in the Orient, with GO meaning five in Japanese. In China, the interpretation is the fifth day of the fifth month in the lunar calendar, which is today takes the form of the Dragon Boat Festival in June.
-
By the way, March 3 was Girls' Day in Japan, when non-alcoholic sake is drunk with arare (kakimochi in Hawaii) and dolls are displayed. This, though, is not a national holiday. There is, however, another holiday called Coming-of-Age Day, the second Monday in January, to commemorate passing into adulthood (age of 20), when males walking around don't look much different, but females of that age dress in colorful kimonos. The Japanese celebrate 15 holidays, with the Emperor's Birthday occurring on December 23, close enough to Christmas. Yes, there is even a Labor / Thanksgiving Day that occurs in November.
-
Ah, the bad news, for Bloomberg at 4:23 PM now lists the NYMEX Crude Future at $120.02.
วันอาทิตย์ที่ 4 พฤษภาคม พ.ศ. 2551
Planet Earth and Humanity on May 4, 2008
SUCCESSFUL BOOK SIGNING
The First Friday book signing on May 2 for SIMPLE SOLUTIONS was deemed, "best ever," by the staff of Bestsellers. Perhaps the exceptional wines and beer, plus the bottle of Lagavulin, had a lot to do with the success, but, I was signing until 15 minutes after the bookstore was supposed to close. Thank your for coming, and mahalo, especially, to Leighton Chong, Phil Bossert, Karen Wheeler and Dan Bent for doing most of the planning and interfacing. Special kudos for Lauren Chong, who served as producer and cinematographer of the event. A DVD has been created, and those seeking a copy can contact this blog.
The First Friday book signing on May 2 for SIMPLE SOLUTIONS was deemed, "best ever," by the staff of Bestsellers. Perhaps the exceptional wines and beer, plus the bottle of Lagavulin, had a lot to do with the success, but, I was signing until 15 minutes after the bookstore was supposed to close. Thank your for coming, and mahalo, especially, to Leighton Chong, Phil Bossert, Karen Wheeler and Dan Bent for doing most of the planning and interfacing. Special kudos for Lauren Chong, who served as producer and cinematographer of the event. A DVD has been created, and those seeking a copy can contact this blog.
IS CORN ETHANOL RESPONSIBLE FOR RISING FOOD PRICES?
Corn and wheat prices have doubled over the past three years, and food costs overall jumped 83% in this period. Thus, in a word, yes, corn ethanol, at least partly, can be blamed. Droughts, rising cost of oil, weak American dollar and increasing world population are also responsible, but the World Bank, United Nations and CGIAR (Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research) all seem to want to mostly stick it on our ethanol policy. President George Bush, however, begs to differ. and recently reinforced his push for the continued expansion of food-based biofuels.
BUT, ARE THOSE RICE RIOTS ALSO CAUSED BY ETHANOL?
Well, probably no. Google "Blaine Harden, Japan rice" for the details, but international rice prices have doubled just since January. Now at $1000/ton, this is still far less than the $2300/ton paid by Japanese consumers, which is, amazingly, only one-third of what rice cost 14 years ago. Further, rice now represents only 23% the Japanese diet, one-half of what it was in the 60's. Yet, Japanese eat six times more rice per capita than Americans. Food, energy and humanity are related, but in strange ways.
วันอังคารที่ 29 เมษายน พ.ศ. 2551
SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth and Humanity
WINDWARD OAHU
BOOK SIGNING
SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for
Planet Earth (www.SimpleSolutionsBook1.com)
and Humanity (www.SimpleSolutionsBook2.com)
Bookends in Kailua
BOOK SIGNING
SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for
Planet Earth (www.SimpleSolutionsBook1.com)
and Humanity (www.SimpleSolutionsBook2.com)
Bookends in Kailua
Sometime this Summer
From SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth:
PREAMBLE: Not only has petroleum shot past $100/barrel, the current price is nearing $120/barrel. You might recall in the 70’s when the first and second energy crises catapulted $3/barrel oil all the way up to $12/barrel. At the time of the 1973 crisis we were importing about a third of our oil needs…today, we are in the range of two-thirds. So, we decided to replace gasoline with ethanol. Hmm, the World Bank just reported that global food prices have risen 83% in the last three years, and the primary cause was our decision to convert corn into ethanol, plus surging oil. So what is the SIMPLE SOLUTION? Come to the book signing…read the book.
Tax Black Energy: You Will Pay for Global Warming
Coal is the worst fossil fuel for global warming. Incredibly, today, coal is the fastest growing energy source. China uses more coal than the U.S., European Union and Japan combined. Each week or so, a new coal power plant is commissioned in China that would satisfy all the households in Dallas or San Diego. And India is right behind China. In 2030, India is expected to pass the population of China. The USA is scheduled to build a 500 MW coal-fired power plant (to supply electricity to 500,000 homes) ONLY each month for the next 22 years. How, then, can we reduce the use of coal and other fossil fuels? Find a way to invoke a 10 cents / carbon dioxide investment credit (also known as a tax) program. Who will pay this penalty? Ultimately, you, the consumer, of course. We don’t, yet, because we don’t value our environment enough. This the fatal flaw of our society: we don’t do anything much until it is too late.
The World is Already Suffering from $7/Gallon Gasoline
Even at $4/gallon, gasoline is a bargain in the USA. That is only because our government is kind and does not tax this fuel enough. The U.S. Department of Energy in one year allocates about a billion dollars to sustainable energy research. We daily spend that amount on gasoline. A simple solution would be to add just $1/gallon to the pump price, call it the smart investment incentive, and apply this fund to develop sustainable fuels for humanity.
Some relative costs per gallon:
Gasoline in USA $ 3.50
Gasoline in Hong Kong $ 7.50 (similar to Europe)
Scope Mouthwash $ 15.00
Gallon of Beer in Restaurant $ 20.00
Evian (naïve backwards) $ 21.00
Brake Fluid (mostly oil) $ 34.00
Johnny Walker Black Label Scotch $ 160.00
Vick’s Nyquil $ 180.00
Channel #5 Perfume $4000.00
Computer printer ink $5000.00
Yes, petroleum shot past $110/barrel, but that is only $2.62/gallon. Energy is expensive, but cheap.
Green Energy Would Be Cost Competitive…If Polluters Were Charged for Dumping Carbon Dioxide into Your Atmosphere
Electricity from coal and nuclear sources costs about 3 to 4 cents / kWh to produce. Under ideal conditions, wind power and geothermal energy electricity is in the range of 4 to 6 cents/kWh. Solar photovoltaic electricity is today more than 20 cents/kWh, and even with the latest Nanosolar thin film development, will exceed 10 cents/kWh, although utility scale facilities show promise.
Electricity in Hawaii averages higher than 25 cents/kWh. The Nation is about 10cents/kWh. But there is no charge for polluting the air with carbon dioxide. A 10 cents / pound carbon dioxide tax would make even solar photovoltaic electricity competitive with coal/nuclear power. Well, actually, nuclear power would then become the cheapest, but that is another issue.
The Answer for Biofuels: Methanol, Not Ethanol, Stupid!
The national policy is to produce ethanol from corn. This has doubled the price of corn and tripled the price of wheat. The World Bank has reported that the global food prices have risen 83% during the past three years, and blamed corn ethanol, plus the soaring price of petroleum. Farmers are happy, and their lobbyists will spend $80 million this year to insure for the next $300 billion farm subsidy bill.
Ah, but they’re thinking, and the next phase will be to ferment the fibrous part of plants to produce more ethanol. However, given biomass, it is cheaper and more convenient to gasify and catalyze this cellulose into methanol. There are other clean liquid fuels, of course, but methanol is the simplest of them all, and that should translate into better economics. Plus, methanol is the only biofuel capable of being directly processed by a fuel cell, the possible next generation automobile “engine.” The direct methanol fuel cell iPod will soon replace one powered by a battery.
Our Nation will soon be faced with two types of White Elephants: corn to ethanol facilities, where the feedstock will be too expensive, and biomass to ethanol fermentation factories, which taxpayers will continue to subsidize in some way. Within the decade, they will not be able to compete with biomass to methanol processes.
Hydrogen is the Silver Bullet for Sustainability
Hydrogen is the simplest molecule and the most abundant element in our Universe. It can be burned to cook food, where water vapor is the by-product. Processed in a fuel cell, electricity can be produced. The future of aviation could be hydrogen powered, for this is the lightest fuel. The sun fuses hydrogen to provide energy to Planet Earth. Yes, nuclear fusion is solar energy.
But hydrogen is expensive and the infrastructure will take a generation or two or more to develop. If Peak Oil and Global Warming is as serious a problem as feared, one solution would be to make hydrogen free by, say, the Year 2020, and provide funds to industry to build the infrastructure and make available the fuel. Otherwise, given business as usual, it will take a century to get there, maybe.
As such, methanol might well be an ideal bridge to a future hydrogen economy, for the business system is largely already in place, and, amazingly enough, one gallon of methanol has more hydrogen than one gallon of liquid hydrogen. Thus,“Silver Bullet” might well be the operative term when today applied to hydrogen, for that metaphor has negative connotations. Hydrogen seems fated to eventually prevail, but not very soon.
Hawaii Can Lead the Coming Blue Revolution
One thousand meters below the surface of the ocean is deep cold water at 4 degrees Celsius, which can be combined with the warmer surface water to produce electricity through ocean thermal energy conversion. The resultant effluent is also rich in nutrients to fertilize marine biomass plantations and support next generation fisheries. The Blue Revolution is the concept to produce sustainable energy, food, materials and habitats from the riches of the sea. In the process it is possible that global warming can be remediated and the formation of hurricanes prevented. Hawaii is ideally located to lead the effort.
Global Warming: Would You Believe if our World Temperature Rises to 900 °F?
The increasing carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is projected to raise the atmospheric temperature a few degrees. However, there is another Greenhouse Gas, methane, the major component of natural gas, which can be found in the frozen tundra and bottom of the ocean encased in ice. It is reported that there could be twice the amount of energy in these marine methane hydrates than all the known coal, oil and natural gas. Gas and ice rise to the surface if jostled. Worse, one molecule of methane is at least 20 times worse than a molecule of carbon dioxide in the warming of Earth.
Under a worst case scenario, could Planet Earth be transformed to Planet Venus, which is at a temperature of 900 °F? Sudden increases in atmospheric temperatures have been experienced in the geologic history of Planet Earth, supposedly caused by higher methane concentrations. Could we be triggering this effect through global warming? So what is the simple solution?
If a Mega Tsunami Destroys Seattle, Can Hawaii be Blamed?
Should there be a major earthquake in the bottom of the ocean, the highest tsunami possible is only about 10 meters. However, if a good portion of an island falls into the sea quickly and deeply enough, a mega tsunami of 100 meters and higher can be generated.
The Nuuanu Landslide of about a million years ago could well have caused a mega tsunami. Looking from Kaneohe towards the Koolaus, that magnificent scene represents the inside of the crater that remained after the other half fell into the ocean. The remnants can still be seen in the deep sea.
Hawaii is known to have had the greatest number (17) of such events. Can the Northeast side of the Big Island (which would include Hilo, unfortunately) fall into the sea to cause a mega tsunami six hours later in Seattle? Probably not, but…maybe.
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From SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity:
PREAMBLE: Book 1 of the SIMPLE SOLUTIONS series focused on energy and the environment. Book 2, for Humanity, provides simple, but extreme, solutions for crime, war, eternal life, education, the search for extraterrestrial intelligence and religion, concluding with a suggestion on where might be the place to live. These thoughts are shared to stimulate discussions about what is real and what might be attainable.
Three Strikes and You’re Dead: This Could be the Simple Solution to Crime
Have you had a car stolen by a criminal who has been convicted 47 times? There are “three strikes and you’re out” laws gaining in popularity, but that only results in your taxes paying for more prisons to keep the condemned in air conditioned comfort. What if we had a three strikes and you’re dead law? The crime rate will almost surely drop, the judiciary and enforcement agencies will largely become unnecessary and the money saved can go towards education and human welfare. Unfortunately, there will then be fewer lawyers (sorry, had to add this, as most of my advisors seem to be lawyers). Anyway, don’t get too carried away, as society is humane.
Make Democracies, Not War!
Professor Rudy Rummel of the University of Hawaii conducted a comprehensive study and found that, over the past 200 years, no two democracies have ever waged a major war. President George Bush’s plan to democratize the Middle East might well be a reasonable solution to wars.
Are We Ready for Eternal Life?
Scientists have found the aging gene and are tinkering with immobilizing it or reversing the process. A more immediate option, though, might be to clone yourself, store your memory in a computer (which should become available within the decade) and place your memory into a younger, better looking and smarter new you. We are closer to these prospects than you might think. Society is resisting, as human cloning seems to be universally disparaged.
We have a Terrible K-12 Educational System…So Live with It!
PREAMBLE: Book 1 of the SIMPLE SOLUTIONS series focused on energy and the environment. Book 2, for Humanity, provides simple, but extreme, solutions for crime, war, eternal life, education, the search for extraterrestrial intelligence and religion, concluding with a suggestion on where might be the place to live. These thoughts are shared to stimulate discussions about what is real and what might be attainable.
Three Strikes and You’re Dead: This Could be the Simple Solution to Crime
Have you had a car stolen by a criminal who has been convicted 47 times? There are “three strikes and you’re out” laws gaining in popularity, but that only results in your taxes paying for more prisons to keep the condemned in air conditioned comfort. What if we had a three strikes and you’re dead law? The crime rate will almost surely drop, the judiciary and enforcement agencies will largely become unnecessary and the money saved can go towards education and human welfare. Unfortunately, there will then be fewer lawyers (sorry, had to add this, as most of my advisors seem to be lawyers). Anyway, don’t get too carried away, as society is humane.
Make Democracies, Not War!
Professor Rudy Rummel of the University of Hawaii conducted a comprehensive study and found that, over the past 200 years, no two democracies have ever waged a major war. President George Bush’s plan to democratize the Middle East might well be a reasonable solution to wars.
Are We Ready for Eternal Life?
Scientists have found the aging gene and are tinkering with immobilizing it or reversing the process. A more immediate option, though, might be to clone yourself, store your memory in a computer (which should become available within the decade) and place your memory into a younger, better looking and smarter new you. We are closer to these prospects than you might think. Society is resisting, as human cloning seems to be universally disparaged.
We have a Terrible K-12 Educational System…So Live with It!
American students are generally below the world average in math, science, analysis, geography and whatever is worth measuring. Our teachers are not paid well for their responsibility. Is this terrible? Perhaps, but this is what we, apparently, want. Your elected officials—meaning, of course, you and other voters—determine spending priorities. You get what you deserve!
However, why, then, is the USA the #1 world power? Is there a method to our madness? Probably, for we spend more for higher education than any other country. Seventeen of the best twenty universities are in the United States. Something like the top 5% to 10% of our society is said to be mostly responsible for creativity, progress and ultimate success. We do a terrific job of insuring for this continued dominance through an exceptional university system. Keep complaining about our poor school system, but you can now do it with less anguish and guilt.
What if Aliens have been Trying to Phone Earth?
Our solar system is only about 5 billion years old, but the Universe has been around for at least 12 billion years. What if life occurred in some of the billions and billions of galaxies out there, and some life forms are sending signals to us with the cure for cancer, solution to universal peace and the like?
NASA is today prohibited by Congress to conduct research on the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI). Is this smart? Why not divert only ten percent the cost of one space shuttle flight (which is around $1 billion) each year to conduct a comprehensive search? Sometimes you need to try something extraordinary to attain the monumental.
The End of Religion?
All religions agree on one or more, but usually different, God; but none can prove an afterlife. Can this basic immorality—promising something without proof—serve to undermine one of mankind’s greatest social inventions?
As there is no rational reason for pure faith, our educational system surely must by now have sufficiently edified us? Nope! Around 90% of Americans believe in God and an afterlife. This figure is closer to 10% for those in France, Israel and Japan. And why do only 5% of National Science Academy biological scientists believe in an afterlife? How can intelligent Homo Sapiens think so differently?
Some say that 9/11 would not have happened if the Muslim terrorists did not believe in an afterlife. Can there be a golden evolution for religion? Can a society continue to progress without religion? Given time—maybe a millennium—most probably.
Where is the Best Place to Live?
Hawaii! Why? Read the book.
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