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Saturday, October 15, 2016

THE END OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY AS WE KNOW IT?

Back in February I posted on:


Then in March


To quote from the February article:

  • White        63.7%
  • Hispanic  16.3%
  • Black       12.2%
  • Asian        4.7%
In the USA, white does not mean you are a Republican, but only a small percentage considers itself rich.  So why do Republicans dominate the U.S. Congress, Supreme Court, State Legislatures and State Governorships (31 versus 18)?

I went on to say:

The catalyst for the decline of the Republican Party will be Donald Trump.  If he wins the Republican ticket to the presidential race, they will begin to lose control of Congress.  If they sufficiently mistreat him, he will run as an Independent and totally screw them up.  Bernie Sanders seems less inclined to play the Ralph Nader role in the ruining of Al Gore.  Will the Red, White and Blue elephant become a White elephant?

I also said:

The catalyst for the above will have everything to do with Donald Trump, plus the obstinacy of the Senate leadership towards fulfilling their Supreme Court process obligation:

And further, if the Senate did not act on President Obama's nomination of Merrick Garland for the vacant Supreme Court seat:


  • Hillary Clinton at 1/7 or 87.5   % probability
  • Donald Trump      5/1     17      %
  • Mike Pence        80/1       1      %
  • Gary Johnson    500/1      0.2   %
  • Jill Stein          1000/1      0.1   %

Most betting sites have the U.S. Senate going Democratic:
  • Democrats       4/9        69  %
  • Republicans   11/8        42  %
Can't find any betting odds for House control, but here is some historic info:




A decade ago there were equal numbers of Independents, Democrats and Republicans.  Today, most Americans are independent.  Now you know why Senator Bernie Sanders did so well.

From the Pew Research Center:


Chances are that Republicans will still control the House of Representatives this year, but if not, here is what could well happen:
  • Traditional Republicans will attempt to secure the support of more Independents.
  • A splinter Republican group of Tea Party, Trump supporters, fringe religious organizations and the like will band together.
  • But this will only make it more difficult for Republicans to gain control over Congress and the White House.
Most Americans are not rich, care some for the environment, are generally sympathetic toward immigrants, getting more resistant to defense budget increases in light of "only" terrorist dangers and lean towards women and minority rights.  These are the domain of Democrats.

Donald Trump has single-handedly changed the landscape of politics in this country.  It is too late now for anyone to replace him as the candidate to oppose Hillary Clinton.  He will continue to insult and embarrass Republicans and potential supporters into November 8.  If Hillary does not faint at the third debate on October 19, much of the above will begin to solidify.  In 2020 the Presidential Election will feature three candidates, one Democrat and two different types of Republicans.  This will seal the doom of the Republican Party.

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Typhoon Sarika has suddenly strengthened to 115 MPH and is on the verge of pummeling the Philippines:


Right behind is an even more dangerous Tropical Storm Haima, now predicted to possibly attain super typhoon strength and make landfall over the northern part of the Philippines:


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